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Background Codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is a major pest of apple, pear and walnut production in North America. Management programs are based on preventing larval entry into the fruit or nut and are typically timed by heat-driven models that are synchronized to field populations by first capture of overwintering moths in pheromone traps. Unfortunately, trap capture is affected by a range of environmental parameters as well as by the use of mating disruption, which makes detecting first flight difficult, thus complicating implementation of management programs. The present goal was to evaluate data collected from a broad range of locations across North America to see whether average first spring emergence times could be predicted. Results Average emergence time on a degree-day scale from 1 January was predictable using latitude and elevation. Sites at elevations of <400 m fit a simple quadratic equation using latitude, but, when higher elevations were included, a multiple regression using elevation was required. Conclusions The present models can be used to simplify management programs for codling moth in areas where heat-driven models that require extensive trapping to synchronize with emergence are currently used. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]