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Forest planting events present key opportunities to enhance forest adaptation and growth through the selection of appropriate growing materials (seeds and seedlings). Critical to such efforts is knowledge of the climatic distance that seed sources can be moved before significant growth forfeitures are incurred. These limits, referred to here as critical seed transfer distances (CSTD), can be used to identify a potential seed procurement region for any given planting site and can readily incorporate climate change projections.We assembled provenance trial data from a variety of sources and employed transfer functions to derive CSTDs for five major tree species in eastern North America.Optimal height growth at test sites was associated with modest warm‐to‐cold (i.e. northward) seed transfers of 1.6°C on average. Calculated transfer limits were large, indicating that seed sources could be moved significant climatic distances before height growth was less than 90% relative to that of the local seed source. These broad relationships, which were relatively consistent across species, would allow considerable flexibility in resulting seed transfer systems; however, given the significant uncertainty surrounding climate change—particularly in the location and timing of extreme weather events—prudent application of seed transfer limits may be appropriate.Synthesis: We assembled and analysed a significant amount of provenance data to derive novel information on seed movement limits for five tree species in eastern North America. This information will support forest managers in ongoing efforts to incorporate climate change into forest regeneration operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article highlights an economic model which aims to assist users in deciding the fate of ash trees threatened by the arrival of emerald ash borer (EAB) in North America from Asia. The model tracks the costs and benefits of treating or removing and then replacing a tree. To utilize the model, users such as homeowners, consulting foresters and arborists should first identify the size and location of the tree, as well as the type and planned location of the replacement tree.

Global climate models are constantly being upgraded, but it is often not clear what these changes have on climate change impact projections. We used difference maps to directly compare downscaled projections of temperature and precipitation across North America for two versions (or generations) of three different Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM)s. We found that AOGCM versions differed in their projections for the end of the current century by up to 4 °C for annual mean temperature and 60% for annual precipitation. To place these changes in an ecological context, we reanalyzed our work on shifts in tree climate envelopes (CEs) using the newer-generation AOGCM projections. Based on the updated AOGCMs, by the 2071-2100 period, tree CEs shifted up to 2.4 degrees further north or 2.6 degrees further south (depending on the AOGCM) and were about 10% larger in size. Despite considerable differences between versions of a given AOGCM, projections made by the newer version of each AOGCM were in general agreement, suggesting convergence across the three models studied here. Assessing the AOGCM outputs in this way provides insight into the magnitude and importance of change associated with AOGCM upgrades as they continue to evolve through time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently predicted change in climate could strongly affect plant distributions during the next century. Here we determine the present-day climatic niches for 130 North American tree species. We then locate the climatic conditions of these niches on maps of predicted future climate, indicating where each species could potentially occur by the end of the century. A major unknown in this work is the extent to which populations of trees will actually track climate shifts through migration. We therefore present two extreme scenarios in which species either move entirely into future climatic niches or do not move out of their current niches. In the full-dispersal scenario, future potential ranges show decreases and increases in size, with an average decrease of 12% and a northward shift of 700 kilometers (km). In the no-dispersal scenario, potential ranges decrease in size by 58% and shift northward by 330 km. Major redistribution pressures appear to be in order under both dispersal scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]