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Background & Aims: Inpatients with cirrhosis have high rates of acute-on-chronic failure (ACLF) development and high mortality within 30 days of admission to the hospital. Better biomarkers are needed to predict these outcomes. We performed metabolomic analyses of serum samples from patients with cirrhosis at multiple centers to determine whether metabolite profiles might identify patients at high risk for ACLF and death., Methods: We performed metabolomic analyses, using liquid chromatography, of serum samples collected at time of admission to 12 North American tertiary hepatology centers from 602 patients in the North American Consortium for the Study of End-Stage Liver Disease sites from 2015 through 2017 (mean age, 56 years; 61% men; mean model for end-stage liver disease score, 19.5). We performed analysis of covariance, adjusted for model for end-stage liver disease at time of hospital admission, serum levels of albumin and sodium, and white blood cell count, to identify metabolites that differed between patients who did vs did not develop ACLF and patients who did vs did not die during hospitalization and within 30 days. We performed random forest analysis to identify specific metabolite(s) that were associated with outcomes and area under the curve (AUC) analyses to analyze them in context of clinical parameters. We analyzed microbiomes of stool samples collected from 133 patients collected at the same time and examined associations with serum metabolites., Results: Of the 602 patients analyzed, 88 developed ACLF (15%), 43 died in the hospital (7%), and 72 died within 30 days (12%). Increased levels of compounds of microbial origin (aromatic compounds, secondary or sulfated bile acids, and benzoate) and estrogen metabolites, as well as decreased levels of phospholipids, were associated with development of ACLF, inpatient, and 30-day mortality and were also associated with fecal microbiomes. Random forest analysis and logistic regression showed that levels of specific microbially produced metabolites identified patients who developed ACLF with an AUC of 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78-0.88; P = .001), patients who died while in the hospital with an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.74-0.85; P = .002), and patients who died within 30 days with an AUC of 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.81; P = .02). The metabolites were significantly additive to clinical parameters for predicting these outcomes. Metabolites associated with outcomes were also correlated with microbiomes of stool samples., Conclusions: In an analysis of serum metabolites and fecal microbiomes of patients hospitalized with cirrhosis at multiple centers, we associated metabolites of microbial origin and lipid moieties with development of ACLF and death as an inpatient or within 30 days, after controlling for clinical features., (Copyright © 2020 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background & Aims: Inpatients with cirrhosis are prone to develop acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). ACLF is associated with dysbiosis of the intestinal microbiota, which might serve as a prognostic factor. We investigated whether features of the intestinal microbiota associate organ failure, transfer to intensive care, and mortality within 30 days in patients admitted to the hospital with cirrhosis., Methods: Stool samples were collected from 181 patients with cirrhosis (age 56 years; mean model for end-stage liver disease score, 21; 43% with infections) at time of admission, from multiple hospitals in North America. Patients were followed for 30 days for development of ACLF, extra-hepatic organ failures, and death or hospice care. Microbiota were analyzed by 16s rRNA sequencing for alpha diversity (within groups), beta diversity (between groups), cirrhosis dysbiosis ratio (CDR), and taxa that differed between groups with vs without negative outcomes (individual organ failures, transfer to intensive care, ACLF, death, or hospice). Regression analyses were performed using microbial and clinical variables for each outcome., Results: ACLF developed in 8% of study subjects; 16% were transferred to intensive care and 21% died. Beta diversity of the intestinal microbiome was significantly different, whereas alpha diversity was similar, between subjects with vs without outcomes. The CDR was lower in subjects who developed ACLF, especially among those with renal failure. Taxa belonging to phylum Proteobacteria (Enterobacteriaceae, Campylobacteriaceae, and Pasteurellaceae) and Firmicutes (Enterococcaceae and Streptococcaceae) were associated with development of negative outcomes, whereas other Firmicutes members (Lachnospiraceae and Clostridiales) reduced risk of negative outcomes. Changes in the microbiota associated with extra-hepatic organ failure, transfer to intensive care, ACLF, and death, independently on logistic regression analyses., Conclusion: In hospitalized patients with cirrhosis, dysbiosis of the intestinal microbiota on admission (particularly changes in Protebacteria constituents) associates with increased risk of extra-hepatic organ failure, ACLF, and death, independent of clinical factors. Strategies to reduce gut dysbiosis might improve outcomes of patients with cirrhosis., (Copyright © 2019 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)