1. Stratospheric Fluorine as a Tracer of Circulation Changes: Comparison Between Infrared Remote‐Sensing Observations and Simulations With Five Modern Reanalyses.
- Author
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Prignon, M., Chabrillat, S., Friedrich, M., Smale, D., Strahan, S. E., Bernath, P. F., Chipperfield, M. P., Dhomse, S. S., Feng, W., Minganti, D., Servais, C., and Mahieu, E.
- Subjects
FLUORINE ,HYDROGEN chloride ,NITRIC acid ,REMOTE sensing ,FOURIER transform infrared spectroscopy - Abstract
Using multidecadal time series of ground‐based and satellite Fourier transform infrared measurements of inorganic fluorine (i.e., total fluorine resident in stratospheric fluorine reservoirs), we investigate stratospheric circulation changes over the past 20 years. The representation of these changes in five modern reanalyses is further analyzed through chemical‐transport model (CTM) simulations. From the observations but also from all reanalyses, we show that the inorganic fluorine is accumulating less rapidly in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere during the 21st century. Comparisons with a study evaluating the age‐of‐air of these reanalyses using the same CTM allow us to link this hemispheric asymmetry to changes in the Brewer‐Dobson circulation (BDC), with the age‐of‐air of the Southern Hemisphere getting younger relative to that of the Northern Hemisphere. Large differences in simulated total columns and absolute trend values are, nevertheless, depicted between our simulations driven by the five reanalyses. Superimposed on this multidecadal change, we, furthermore, confirm a 5–7‐year variability of the BDC that was first described in a recent study analyzing long‐term time series of hydrogen chloride (HCl) and nitric acid (HNO3). It is important to stress that our results, based on observations and meteorological reanalyses, are in contrast with the projections of chemistry‐climate models in response to the coupled increase of greenhouse gases and decrease of ozone‐depleting substances, calling for further investigations and the continuation of long‐term observations. Plain Language Summary: The overturning circulation of the stratosphere is projected to change in response to increases in greenhouse gases and decreases in ozone‐depleting substances, with the Southern Hemisphere branch expected to get weaker relative to the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we use 30‐year time series of observations and simulations of a long‐lived tracer to investigate stratospheric circulation changes. The observations analyzed are from ground‐based and satellite instruments. We compare them with simulations that use a chemical‐transport model driven by winds from meteorological reanalyses of 1990–2019. A reanalysis assimilates meteorological measurements into a forecast model to simulate the best possible representation of the atmospheric state. All five simulations, which use different reanalyses, agree with the observational analysis showing that the analyzed tracer is accumulating less rapidly in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere through 2019. This hemispheric asymmetry is attributed to changes in the stratospheric transport circulation, with the Southern Hemisphere branch getting stronger relative to the Northern Hemisphere. Our results support the conclusions of a recent observational study but do not support circulation changes projected by chemistry‐climate models. This study highlights the crucial importance of long‐term observation time series. Key Points: Fluorine in the stratosphere is accumulating less rapidly in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern HemisphereThe observed fluorine trend asymmetry, attributed to transport circulation changes, opposes trends predicted by chemistry‐climate modelsObservations and five modern reanalyses are qualitatively in agreement with these changes, calling for maintaining long‐term observations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
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