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Prognostic factors for chronic neck pain were identified in a prospective Norwegian insurance cohort comprising 636 persons with minor or moderate traffic injuries. One questionnaire was used at baseline and another at 3 years post-injury. Daily severe or very severe neck pain at three years follow up was defined as chronic neck pain. Eight significant independent prognostic factors for chronic neck pain were identified: (1) rear-end or frontal and rear-end collision, odds ratio (OR): 4.10 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.72-10.82); (2) neck and/or shoulder pain before the accident, OR: 2.38 (95% CI: 1.07-5.37); (3) post-accident (a) memory and concentration problems, OR: 4.62 (95% CI: 1.99-11.20), (b) bodily tension, OR: 3.43 (95% CI: 1.49-8.42), (c) difficulties to climb stairs, OR: 5.03 (95% CI: 1.77-14.95), (d) difficulties to bend forward, OR: 4.85 (95% CI: 2.06-11.79), (e) difficulties to do heavy labour, OR: 3.70 (95% CI: 1.24-11.64); (4) beliefs in future work disability, OR: 2.64 (95% CI: 1.11-6.48). The results indicate that development of chronic neck pain is influenced by pre-accident neck and/or shoulder pain, the impact of the collision, as well as post-accident symptoms, perceived impaired function and pessimism for the future ability to work.