Search

Background: Stroke incidence rates have fallen in high-income countries over the last several decades, but findings regarding the trend over recent years have been mixed. The aim of the study was to describe and model temporal trends in incidence of stroke by age and sex between 2010 and 2015 in Norway, and to generate incidence projections towards year 2040.Methods: All recorded strokes in Norway between 2010 and 2015 were extracted from the National Patient Registry and the National Cause of Death Registry. We report incidence by age, sex, and year; in raw numbers, per 100,000 person-years, by WHO and European standard populations; and generated statistical models by stroke type, age, sex, and year; and projected stroke incidence toward year 2040.Results: The data covered 30.1 million person-years at risk, 53431 unique individuals hospitalized with a primary stroke diagnosis, and 6315 additional individuals registered as dead due to stroke. From 2010 to 2015, individuals suffering stroke per 100,000 person-years dropped from 239 to 195 (208 to 177 excluding immediate deaths). The decline was driven by ischemic strokes, with a statistically non-significant time trend for hemorrhagic stroke.Conclusions: The age-dependent incidence of ischemic strokes in Norway is declining rapidly, and more than compensates for the growth and ageing of the population. Comparisons with historic incidence statistics show that the reduction in incidence rates has accelerated over the last two decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: While there is a general agreement that stroke incidence among the elderly is declining in the developed world, there is a concern that it may be increasing among the young. The present study investigates this issue for the Norwegian population for the years 2010-2015. Cerebrovascular accidents (CVAs) for patients younger than 55 years were identified through the Norwegian Patient Registry and the Norwegian Cause-of-death Registry., Methods: Negative binomial regression modelling was used to estimate temporal trends in the CVA incidence rates for the young, aged 15-54, with 10-year sub-intervals, and for children below the age of 18. The main outcomes were CVA incidence per 100,000 person-years at risk (PY), 30-day stroke mortality per 100,000 PY, and 30-day case-fatality rates., Results: The analysis showed a negative and non-significant temporal trend in the CVA incidence ([Formula: see text]) as well as for 30-day mortality ([Formula: see text]) for the age group 15-54. Overall, the inclusion of an interaction for age in the bracket 45-54 suggested that any temporal decline is restricted to this age bracket. The analyses of the 10-year age brackets 15-24, 25-34, and 34-45, provided evidence neither for an increase, nor for a decrease, in incidence. Among the children, the estimated temporal coefficients were positive, but non-significant, consistent with a stationary trend., Conclusion: Weak statistical evidence was found for a decline in CVA incidence and for overall stroke 30-day case fatality for 15-54 year olds, but the decline was significant only for the 45-54 age band. All results considered, the study suggests a stationary or decreasing temporal trend in CVA incidence and stroke fatality for children (0-18) and young (15-54) in Norway. Even larger data sets are needed to estimate these temporal trends accurately.