Search

In the context of recent climate change, temperature-attributable mortality has become an important public health threat worldwide. A large number of studies in Europe have identified a relationship between temperature and mortality, while only a limited number of scholars provided evidence for Serbia. In order to provide more evidence for better management of health resources at the regional and local level, this study aims to assess the impact of summer temperature on the population in Serbia, using daily average temperature (Ta) and mortality (CDR (crude death rate) per 100,000). The analysis was done for five areas (Belgrade, Novi Sad, Niš, Loznica, and Vranje), covering the summer (June–August) period of 2001–2015. In order to quantify the Ta-related CDR, a generalized additive model (GAM) assuming a quasi-Poisson distribution with log as the link function was used. Five regression models were constructed, for each area, revealing a statistically significant positive relationship between Ta and CDR in four areas. The effect of Ta on CDR was defined as the relative risk (RR), which was obtained as the exponential regression coefficient of the models. RR indicates that a 1 °C increase in Ta at lag0 was associated with an increase in CDR of 1.7% for Belgrade, Novi Sad, and Niš and 2% for Loznica. The model for Vranje did not quantify a statistically significant increase in CDR due to Ta (RR=1.006, 95% CI 0.991–1.020). Similar results were confirmed for gender, with a slightly higher risk for women. Analysis across lag structure showed different exposure, but the highest effect of Ta mainly occurs over the short term and persists for 3 days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increased temperature risk in cities threatens the health and well-being of urban population and is fueled by climate change and intensive urbanization. Consequently, further steps must be taken for assessing temperature conditions in cities and their association with public health, in order to improve public health prevention at local or regional level. This study contributes to solving the problems by analyzing the connection between extreme temperatures and the tendencies of all-cause hospital admissions. The analyses used (a) 1-h air temperature data, and (b) daily data of all-cause hospital admissions. The datasets include the summer period (June, July, August) for the years 2016 and 2017. We tested the effects of two temperature indices, day-to-day change in maximum temperature — Tmax,c and daily temperature range — Tr, with all-cause hospital admission subgroups, such as all-cause cases — Ha, hospital admissions in the population below 65 — Ha<65, and hospital admissions in the population aged 65 and over — Ha≥65. The results show the highest values of Ha when Tmax,c is between 6 and 10 °C. Therefore, more intensive hospital admissions can be expected when Tmax increases from day-to-day (positive values of Tmax,c), and it is more visible for Ha and Ha<65 (1 °C = 1% increase in hospital admissions). Also, Tr values between 10 °C and 14 °C cause an increase in the number of hospital admissions, and it is more noticeable for Ha≥65. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comprehensive analysis of air temperature (Ta) dynamics in "local climate zones" (LCZs) of Novi Sad (Serbia) was based on measurements from 17 stations during 3 years. Hourly changes of Ta, cooling rates (CR), heating rates (HR), and urban heat island (UHI) intensity were assessed on seasonal and annual level and during heat wave (HW) and cold wave (CW) periods. Substantial differences are observed for minimum (Tmin) and mean temperatures (Tmean) between LCZs. Two-phase nocturnal cooling was recognized with the first cooling phase characterized by intensive LCZ dependent cooling starting at 1–3 h before sunset and lasting until 3–4 h after sunset. The second cooling phase lasts until sunrise and is characterized by less intensive and LCZ nondependent cooling. The most intensive cooling (CRpeak) was observed in first cooling phase of HW and ranged from − 1.6 °C h−1 in street canyon (LCZ 2) to − 3.9 °C h−1 in forest (LCZ A). Furthermore, a new cooling indicator (CRtotal) was introduced. Due to cooling differences, the most intensive UHI of 5.5 °C was noticed between LCZs 2 and A at sunset + 1 h during HW. Two-phase diurnal heating was also recognized in LCZs with the first heating phase characterized by intensive LCZ dependent heating starting at sunrise and lasting until 4–7 h afterwards. The most intensive heating (HRpeak) ranged from 2.0 °C h−1 in street canyon to 3.0 °C h−1 in industrial area (LCZ 8) during HW. The second heating phase lasts until sunset and is characterized by less intensive heating and smaller HR differences between LCZs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hot summers with several intensive heat waves lead to strong heat-related mortality in Central and Southeast European cities. Therefore, the aim of the study was to evaluate association between maximum temaprature and mortality during the summer period in 2015 and to contribute to the future long-term assessment of heat-related mortality in urban population. The daily number of deaths of all causes and cause-specific mortality for the population of Novi Sad were used, as well as hourly air temperature data from the Novi Sad urban network (NSUNET) system. Four heat waves were detected using the Huth and Kysely methods. Three heat wave periods lasted longer than ten days. In July and August, 45% of days had a maximum temperature above 30 °C, and more than 70% of days had a maximum temperature above 25 °C. The average number of deaths was higher during the heat wave days. Significant association was found between Tmax and all-cause, cardiorespiratory, non-cardiorespiratory in total population, all-cause and cardiorespiratory mortality in the age group 65 and over. This study demonstrates a high magnitude of relation between mortality and temperature. Finally, the results show that population in urban areas is highly vulnerable during heat waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risk assessment and mapping methodologies for heat waves as frequently occurring hazards in central and southeastern Europe were applied in this study, and the impact of heat waves on the mortality of urban populations was determined as part of the assessment. The methodology for conducting the heat wave risk assessment is based on European Commission’s Guidelines for Risk Assessment and Mapping. The Novi Sad (Serbia) urban area was studied during summer 2015, which was one of the hottest summers in the last few decades. In situ air temperature measurements from urban stations and mortality of urban populations were used. Nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) intensity values between the various built-up zones and natural surrounding areas were used for the hazard level calculation. Temperature data from 9 p.m. to 5 a.m. were used because during the night, the UHI intensity reached its maximum values. The average daily number of deaths by LCZs was used to define the impact level of the vulnerability index. Calculations for both hazard levels were completed during two intensive heat waves (in July and August 2015) when it was expected that there may be a high level of risk. The results and maps show that the urban area is complex, and the heat wave risk on the population is not uniform. The most densely built-up areas (LCZs 2, 5 and 6) have very high or high risk values that are influenced by a higher rate of mortality. The obtained results and maps can be used by local authorities to prevent and mitigate climate-related hazards, for medical institutions as well as urban planners and for ancillary local, regional or national services. According to these results, the local authorities could define hot spots where they can place medical and rescue teams and install points with water supplies, etc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to investigate spatial and temporal dynamics and relationship between air temperature and five air humidity parameters (relative humidity, water vapor pressure, absolute humidity, specific humidity, and vapor pressure deficit) in Novi Sad, Serbia, based on two-year data (December 2015–December 2017). The analysis includes different urban areas of Novi Sad, which are delineated in five built (urban) types of local climate zones (LCZ) (LCZ 2, LCZ 5, LCZ 6, LCZ 8, and LCZ 9), and one land cover (natural) local climate zone (LCZ A) located outside the urban area. Temporal analysis included annual, seasonal, and monthly dynamics of air temperature and air humidity parameters, as well as their patterns during the extreme periods (heat and cold wave). The results showed that urban dry island (UDI) occurs in densely urbanized LCZ 2 from February to October, unlike other urban LCZs. The analysis of the air humidity dynamics during the heat wave shows that UDI intensity is most pronounced during the daytime, but also in the evening (approximately until midnight) in LCZ 2. However, lower UDI intensity is observed in the afternoon, in other urban LCZs (LCZ 6, LCZ 8, and LCZ 9) and occasionally in the later afternoon in LCZ 5. Regression analysis confirms the relationship between air temperature and each of the analyzed air humidity parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]