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The article discusses the life and works of William Osler, a neurologist. Osler was born in Bond Head, Ontario. He had published 200 materials on neurology, mostly dealing with the nervous system. He also wrote about important neuropathological staining techniques which he did by himself. Osler had the first description of familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis leading to the discovery of a gene. His papers related to meningitis covered the existence of bacteriological diagnosis and the discovery of the tubercle bacillus.

Objectives: We tested the hypothesis that age is a prognostic factor with respect to long-term accumulation of disability in multiple sclerosis (MS)., Methods: Kaplan-Meier analysis and binary logistic regression models determined the effect of age at disease onset, age at onset of progression, and current age on attainment of severe disability levels (Disability Status Scale [DSS] 6-8-10) from the London, Ontario, database (n = 1,023)., Results: Older age at relapsing-remitting (RR) phase onset was associated with higher risk of reaching advanced DSS scores. This was independent of disease duration and early relapse frequency but secondary to increased risk of conversion to secondary progressive (SP) MS. Onset at age 40 (odds ratio [OR] = 4.22) and at age 50 (OR = 6.04) doubled and tripled risks of developing SP, compared to age 20 (OR = 2.05). Younger age at conversion to SPMS was associated with shorter times to high DSS scores from disease onset. The progressive course, unaffected by age at RR onset, was only modestly affected by age at SP onset. Among primary progressive and RR/SP patients, median ages at attainment of DSS scores were strikingly similar: DSS = 6, 49 vs 48 years; DSS = 8, 58 vs 58 years; and DSS = 10, 78 years for both (p = NS for all comparisons)., Conclusions: Development of SP is the dominant determinant of long-term prognosis, independent of disease duration and early relapse frequency. Age independently affects disability development primarily by changing probability and latency of SP onset, with little effect on the progressive course.

We have examined the demographics and long-term outcome of 1044 patients with sporadic and familial multiple sclerosis in a population-based cohort from London, Ontario. The mean follow-up was 25 years in duration, and by this time most patients had reached the unambiguous endpoint scores of the Kurtzke disability status scale (DSS), DSS 6, 8 or 10. An affected family member was identified in 19.8% of the total population, and this subgroup was further divided arbitrarily into the following three groups by the type and number of relatives affected: (i) first degree only; (ii) first degree plus others; (iii) second or third degree. The outcome in these groups was compared with that for those patients who, at a mean 25 year follow-up, had no relatives known to be affected. Familial cases closely resembled those remaining sporadic in both demographics and outcome, although onset in the most heavily loaded families was earlier and male/female ratio was greater. The times to DSS 6, 8 and 10 did not differ significantly when sporadic, familial and familial subgroups were compared. These results provide no clinical support for viewing familial multiple sclerosis as distinct from the sporadic form. The observed recurrence rate for siblings in a strictly defined epidemiological sample was 3.5%, much as projected. These results validate the recurrence risks which have previously been derived from age-corrected data for these first-degree relatives.

We report a natural history study of 216 patients with primary progressive (PP)- multiple sclerosis defined by at least 1 year of exacerbation-free progression at onset. This represents 19.8% of a largely population-based patient cohort having a mean longitudinal follow-up of 23 years. This subgroup of PP-multiple sclerosis patients had a mean age of onset of 38.5 years, with females predominating by a ratio of 1.3:1.0. The rate of deterioration from disease onset was substantially more rapid than for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, with a median time to disability status score (DSS) 6 and DSS 8 of 8 and 18 years, respectively. Forty-nine percent of patients were followed through to death. Examination of the early disease course revealed two groups with adverse prognostic profiles. Firstly, a shorter time to reach DSS 3 from onset of PP-multiple sclerosis significantly adversely influenced time to DSS 8. Second, involvement of three or more neurological systems at onset resulted in a median time to DSS 10 of 13.5 years in contrast to PP-multiple sclerosis patients with one system involved at onset where median time to death from multiple sclerosis was 33.2 years. However, age, gender and type of neurological system involved at onset appeared to have little influence on prognosis. Life expectancy, cause of mortality and familial history profile were similar in PP-multiple sclerosis and non-PP-multiple sclerosis (all other multiple sclerosis patients from the total population). From clinical onset, rate of progression was faster in the PP-multiple sclerosis group than in the secondary progressive (SP)-multiple sclerosis group. When the rates of progression from onset of the progressive phase to DSS 6, 8 and 10 were compared, SP-multiple sclerosis had a more rapid progressive phase. A substantial minority (28%) of the PP-multiple sclerosis cohort had a distinct relapse even decades after onset of progressive deterioration. These studies establish natural history outcomes for the subgroup of multiple sclerosis patients with primary progressive disease.

The natural history of primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PP-multiple sclerosis) recently has been defined in a geographically based multiple sclerosis population. For a series of prognostically defined hypothetical entry criteria based upon current trends in presentation to the London Multiple Sclerosis Clinic, we determined the number of patients who would have been trial eligible. Using 23 year mean longitudinal natural history data, we identified the observed rate of deterioration for frequently used trial endpoints. Hypothetical entry criteria were based on the practical considerations which would attend the execution of clinical trials in progressive multiple sclerosis. We then developed a series of sample size tables giving the number of patients with PP-multiple sclerosis and the length of observation that would be required to detect a significant result (P = 0.05) for a 25, 50 and 75% decrease in the median time to progression with 80 or 90% power, with treatment efficacy based upon the ability to slow progression on the disability status score. It is expected that the considerations outlined here will prove useful for both trial design and interpretation of trials in PP-multiple sclerosis which will require multi-centre collaborative efforts.

One multiple sclerosis (MS) is diagnosed, important considerations often include life expectancy and the availability of life insurance. We designed a study specifically to examine life expectancy among MS clinic patients and analyzed the data using standard actuarial methods, both including and excluding suicides. The data show that severe MS disability, as measured by an Expanded Disability Status Score (EDSS) of greater than or equal to 7.5, is a major risk factor for death with case fatality ratios for this group of patients approaching 4 times the rate for controls. Conversely, excluding deaths by suicide, case fatality ratios for those with mild and moderate disability (EDSS less than or equal to 7.0) approach 1.4 times and 1.6 times for age- and sex-matched comparison groups. Life tables indicate that the overall life expectancy for MS is only about 6 to 7 years less than that for the "insured" population without MS.

A multivariate hierarchical analysis was used to assess the significance of several demographic and clinical factors in multiple sclerosis patients. We used the time to reach level 6 on the disability status scale (DSS) of Kurtzke as endpoint. Several factors at presentation were significantly associated with an adverse outcome including older age at onset, male sex, cerebellar involvement or insidious onset of a motor deficit as first symptom. Factors ascertained later which were associated significantly with a worse outcome, even after controlling for those previously mentioned, included persisting deficits in brainstem, cerebellar or cerebral systems, a higher frequency of attacks in the first 2 yrs after onset of disease, a short first interattack interval and higher DSS at 2 yrs and 5 yrs from onset. An analysis similar to multiple regression was used to generate predictive models which permit the calculation of the median time to DSS 6 for patients with a given set of covariates. The goodness of fit of these models to the data and their predictive accuracy are discussed.

We used hypothetical entry criteria typical of those used in clinical therapeutic trials to determine the patients who would have been eligible among those followed in a clinic-based study of multiple sclerosis (MS) in London, Ontario, between 1972 and 1984. For these patients, we determined the observed frequency of deterioration by 1 point on the disability status scale (DSS) of Kurtzke, which is the most feasible and frequently used endpoint in clinical trials. We calculated the number of patients required for a randomized clinical trial to detect a significant result (alpha = 0.05) with 80% or 90% power based on the observed rate of deterioration. To assess the linearity of the DSS, we determined the frequency of progression and staying time at each level of the DSS. Overall the frequency of progression was lower and the staying times were longer at higher levels of disability. There was considerable intrapatient as well as interpatient variation in staying time. These data have major implications for the design and conduct of clinical therapeutic trials in MS.

We have evaluated genetic and environmental influences in multiple sclerosis (MS) by comparing age of onset in 99 sibling pairs concordant for the disease. We used three methods of analysis: (1) comparison of mean differences in age of onset and year of onset, (2) linear regression of differences in age or year of onset vs difference in ages, and (3) intraclass correlation of age of onset which is also used for monozygotic twins concordant for MS. Comparison of the mean differences in age of onset or year of onset is found to be inappropriate and potentially misleading. No significant results were found in linear regression of the age of onset or year of onset vs differences in ages, although a trend towards onset at the same age is present. However, nontwin siblings show a significant intraclass correlation for age of onset (P less than 0.01) as is seen in genetic disorders. A stronger intraclass correlation in age of onset in concordant monozygotic twins vs concordant sibling pairs further suggests that age of onset is partly under genetic control, assuming common exposure to an environmental agent. The results give little support for common exposure to an environmental trigger in concordant MS sibling pairs. They are consistent with a mixture of random independent exposures and common exposures leading to the development of the disease, with the former predominating.

We compared demographic and clinical features, including outcome defined by a failure time analysis of disability, in 143 patients with a family history of multiple sclerosis (familial MS) compared with 956 patients without such a history (sporadic MS). Patients with familial MS did not differ from those with sporadic MS even when patients with 1st-degree relatives or multiple relatives with MS were considered separately. An intraclass correlation analysis of 13 pairs of affected 1st-degree relatives, both members of which were followed in our clinic, failed to reveal heterogeneity among different families. We were unable to find any support for differences between familial and sporadic MS.

We analyzed the effect of pregnancy on long-term disability resulting from multiple sclerosis in 185 women ascertained through a retrospective population-based survey of MS in Middlesex County, Ontario, Canada. There was no association between disability and total number of term pregnancies, timing of pregnancy relative to onset of MS, or either onset or worsening of MS in relation to a pregnancy. The mean number of pregnancies both before and after onset of MS was no different among groups stratified according to disability. This study addresses some of the difficulties inherent in studying the effect of pregnancy on disability resulting from MS.

A case-controlled epidemiologic study of multiple sclerosis (MS) was carried out in London, Ontario, and its surrounding Middlesex County for the period 1974-1983. The prevalence rates for clinically definite/probable MS on January 1, 1984 were 94/100,000 for the city and 91/100,000 for the county. The estimated annual incidence rate for the decade 1974-83 was 3.4/100,000. The female-to-male sex ratio was 2.5:1. A familial history of MS was recorded in 14.4% of close relatives and a total of 17% when distant relatives are included. The MS group is predominantly of British (70%) and European (23%) origin. The urban-rural residence pattern analysis indicates no significant regional influence on the risk of developing MS.