1. A data-driven network model for the emerging COVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan, Toronto and Italy.
- Author
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Xue L, Jing S, Miller JC, Sun W, Li H, Estrada-Franco JG, Hyman JM, and Zhu H
- Subjects
- Algorithms, Basic Reproduction Number statistics & numerical data, COVID-19, China epidemiology, Computer Simulation, Confidence Intervals, Contact Tracing statistics & numerical data, Coronavirus Infections prevention & control, Coronavirus Infections transmission, Epidemics prevention & control, Epidemics statistics & numerical data, Humans, Italy epidemiology, Markov Chains, Mathematical Concepts, Monte Carlo Method, Ontario epidemiology, Pneumonia, Viral prevention & control, Pneumonia, Viral transmission, Quarantine statistics & numerical data, SARS-CoV-2, Betacoronavirus, Coronavirus Infections epidemiology, Models, Biological, Pandemics prevention & control, Pandemics statistics & numerical data, Pneumonia, Viral epidemiology
- Abstract
The ongoing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic threatens the health of humans and causes great economic losses. Predictive modeling and forecasting the epidemic trends are essential for developing countermeasures to mitigate this pandemic. We develop a network model, where each node represents an individual and the edges represent contacts between individuals where the infection can spread. The individuals are classified based on the number of contacts they have each day (their node degrees) and their infection status. The transmission network model was respectively fitted to the reported data for the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan (China), Toronto (Canada), and the Italian Republic using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) optimization algorithm. Our model fits all three regions well with narrow confidence intervals and could be adapted to simulate other megacities or regions. The model projections on the role of containment strategies can help inform public health authorities to plan control measures., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2020
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