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Due to a change in capital funding formula, many school boards across the Province of Ontario engaged in Accommodation Reviews to rationalize the supply of school capacity. This process led to numerous school closures and raised important policy questions regarding the economic value of a school in terms of its capitalization into property values and, by extension, how the closure of a school might affect local neighborhoods. To explore these questions, this research uses spatial hedonic methods to estimate the implicit value of accessibility to schools in the City of Hamilton, Ontario. Spatial Durbin model results provide evidence of a significant negative correlation between distance to schools and housing prices in the Canadian context. This suggests that accessibility to schools is capitalized into property values and that the closure of a neighborhood school may result in potentially significant losses of economic value in communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floating Catchment Area (FCA) methods are a popular tool to investigate accessibility to public facilities, in particular health care services. FCA approaches are attractive because, unlike other accessibility measures, they take into account the potential for congestion of facilities. This is done by 1) considering the population within the catchment area of a facility to calculate a variable that measures level of service, and then 2) aggregating the level of service by population centers subject to catchment area constraints. In this paper we discuss an effect of FCA approaches, an artifact that we term demand and level of service inflation. These artifacts are present in previous implementations of FCA methods. We argue that inflation makes interpretation of estimates of accessibility difficult, which has possible deleterious consequences for decision making. Next, we propose a simple and intuitive approach to proportionally allocate demandand and level of service in FCA calculations. The approach is based on a standardization of the impedance matrix, similar to approaches popular in the spatial statistics and econometrics literature. The result is a more intiuitive measure of accessibility that 1) provides a local version of the provider-to-population ratio; and 2) preserves the level of demand and the level of supply in a system. We illustrate the relevant issues with some examples, and then empirically by means of a case study of accessibility to family physicians in the Hamilton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), in Ontario, Canada. Results indicate that demand and supply inflation/deflation affect the interpretation of accessibility analysis using existing FCA methods, and that the proposed adjustment can lead to more intuitive results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article contributes to the growing research and policy interest on the challenges of achieving socially sustainable transportation. It analyses the determinants of transport mode use for journey to work among population groups considered as vulnerable to mobility and accessibility limitations. Using the 2001 Census of Canada, multilevel multinomial logistic regression models were estimated to assess the personal, social and economic factors that affect travel mode use of low-income persons in their journey to work in urban areas in Ontario and Quebec. The findings show important differences in the factors associated with car driving and public transit, between genders, and according to income level, educational achievement, household structure and immigration status. Furthermore, it is found that significant factors affecting travel mode use among low-income people in various urban areas are differentiated by province. The results point towards a geographic-based and balanced promotion of public and private mobility programmes and policies to address transport needs of low-income workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Given an aging population that requires increased medical care, an increasing number of deferrals from the donor pool, and a growing immigrant population that typically has lower donation rates, the purpose of this article is to forecast Ontario's blood supply and demand. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We calculate age- and sex-specific donation and demand rates for blood supply based on 2008 data and project demand between 2008 and 2036 based on these rates and using population data from the Ontario Ministry of Finance. RESULTS: Results indicate that blood demand will outpace supply as early as 2012. For instance, while the total number of donations made by older cohorts is expected to increase in the coming years, the number of red blood cell (RBC) transfusions in the 70+ age group is forecasted grow from approximately 53% of all RBC transfusions in 2008 (209,515) in 2008 to 68% (546,996) by 2036. A series of alternate scenarios, including projections based on a 2% increase in supply per year and increased use of apheresis technology, delays supply shortfalls, but does not eliminate them without active management and/or multiple methods to increase supply and decrease demand. CONCLUSIONS: Predictions show that demand for blood products will outpace supply in the near future given current age- and sex-specific supply and demand rates. However, we note that the careful management of the blood supply by Canadian Blood Services, along with new medical techniques and the recruitment of new donors to the system, will remove future concerns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports on the development of a demographic model capable of projecting the spatial distribution of population by age and sex for small areas such as census tracts. The proposed modeling framework makes use of two components: the Rogers multiregional population projection model and the aggregate spatial multinomial logit (ASMNL) model. The Rogers model utilizes cohort vital statistics on fertility, mortality, and migration to project the progression of population by age and sex at the regional level, while the ASMNL model extends the capabilities of the Rogers model enabling it to provide population estimates at a finer spatial scale. The model is applied to the Hamilton Census Metropolitan Area in Canada. Our simulation tests highlight the robustness of the proposed modeling approach in utilizing small area characteristics and regional vital statistics to perform small area population projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Recent advancements in computing and geographic information systems (GIS) have revolutionized the development of planning support systems (PSSs) to study and simulate the future of travel demand in urban areas. While travel demand models have been widely developed and used to inform the urban planning process, very little has been done to explicitly account for demographic changes and the ageing of population within such models. The work in this paper bridges this gap by describing the development and application of IMPACT (integrated model for population ageing consequences on transportation), a GIS-based PSS capable of assessing the ramifications of demographic changes, including population ageing, on the performance and usage of urban transportation systems. Unlike existing operational PSSs, IMPACT possesses unique and novel features that enable it to model demographic changes and urban travel demand for various age cohorts. Through the simulation of scenarios for varying fertility rates, the paper explores and quantifies the impacts of ageing and population age-structure changes on travel patterns in the census metropolitan area (CMA) of Hamilton in Ontario, Canada. The analysis suggests a consistent increase in the number of trips and mobility levels of elderly drivers, as a result of population ageing over time. Furthermore, increases in fertility rates could significantly impact the usage and performance of the transportation system for certain periods of the day, by the year 2031. Results such as these are important to consider when planning the future of cities. The findings in this paper provide new insights into the future of urban travel in the Canadian context. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• This paper examines significant factors causing or leading older adults (65+) to be involved in pedestrian incidents. • The data were collected from 1001 older adults living in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, South Ontario, Canada. • A wide range of health and behavioral factors of older pedestrians were explored. • Walking difficulties and fear of falling were the most significant factors followed by crossing evaluation capability. Older pedestrians (65 years and above) are among the most vulnerable road users. As the number and proportion of older adults grows in many countries, and awareness of the benefits of active travel becomes increasingly evident, it behooves researchers to further investigate the safety of older pedestrians. This study contributes to the literature by examining the factors that influence older adults' susceptibility to pedestrian incidents (falls incidents and pedestrian-vehicle collisions). To this end, a sample of older adults living in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, South Ontario, Canada was surveyed. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), to identify several latent factors that are significantly associated with older adults' involvement in pedestrian incidents. The results revealed that the factors that affect older adults' susceptibility to pedestrian incidents are level of difficulty while walking, fear of falling, and crossing evaluation capability. In contrast, level of pedestrian confidence and level of risk-taking crossing behavior are not among the significant factors. It was also found that older pedestrians aged 65–75 years, males, and those who are still working had a greater probability to be involved in pedestrian incidents. These findings shed light on some key constraints of older pedestrians, and the extent to which each factor could improve their safety. This information, in turn, can be used by transportation authorities in prioritizing their plans, policies, and programs towards improving the safety and mobility of older pedestrians. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]