1. Simulating the changes of the habitats suitability of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the high seas of the North Pacific Ocean using ensemble models under medium to long-term future climate scenarios.
- Author
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Sun Y, Zhang H, Jiang K, Xiang D, Shi Y, Huang S, Li Y, and Han H
- Subjects
- Pacific Ocean, Animals, Perciformes, Temperature, Chlorophyll A, Environmental Monitoring methods, Climate Models, Ecosystem, Climate Change
- Abstract
Understanding and forecasting changes in marine habitats due to global climate warming is crucial for sustainable fisheries. Using future environmental data provided by Global Climate Models (GCMs) and occurrence records of Chub mackerel in the North Pacific Ocean (2014-2023), we built eight individual models and four ensemble models to simulate current habitat distribution and forecast changes under three future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for the 2050s and 2100s. Ensemble models outperformed individual ones, with the weighted average algorithm model achieving the highest accuracy (AUC 0.994, TSS 0.929). Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (Chla) significantly influenced habitat distribution. Predictions indicate current high suitability areas for Chub mackerel are concentrated beyond the 200-nautical-mile baseline. Under future climate scenarios, habitat suitability is expected to decline, with a shift towards higher latitudes and deeper waters. High suitability areas will be significantly reduced., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 East China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2024
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