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The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) is an environmental indicator species whose activity patterns may be highly impacted by habitat changes. We monitored the monthly and daily activity patterns of black bears in the moist temperate forests of Machiara National Park. We used infrared camera traps and local ecological knowledge for data collection from April 2019 to April 2021. Camera traps recorded 109 [inside forest = 107, outside forest (near crop fields and human settlements) = 2] independent registrations (IR) in 5541 (692.63 ± 36.72, mean ± SD) camera days. We found (i) spring and autumn to be the lowest activity seasons for black bears inside the forest. (ii) The highest activity was recorded in summer, with a peak in August followed closely by July. (iii) The activity level sharply declined after August and halted from December to March, indicative of the bears' hibernation period. Local knowledge revealed that (i) bears remained active from May to November and hibernated the rest of the period. (ii) Bear activity was at its peak inside the forest in summer and outside the forest in autumn when bears sought to raid the widely cultivated maize crop (Zea mays) planted along forest edges. This increased activity outside of the forest is likely driven by decreased food availability inside the forest area and maize crop being a preferred anthropogenic food type for bears. Based on the daily activity pattern, bears exhibited cathemeral behavior (i.e., active throughout the day) with maximum overlap between camera trap and local ecological knowledge data. Human activity may be impacting the daily activity patterns of bears via disturbance and interference. The data collected in this study can help mitigate conflicts between humans and black bears and consequently assist in future conservation of black bears in the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rise in global temperature is one of the main threats of extinction to many vulnerable species by the twenty-first century. The negative impacts of climate change on the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP) could change the species composition. Range shifts and range reduction in the forested landscapes will dramatically affect the distribution of forest-dwelling species, including the Galliformes (ground birds). Three Galliformes (e.g., Lophophorus impejanus, Pucrasia macrolopha, and Tragopan melanocephalus) are indicator species of the environment and currently distributed in NHP. For this study, we used Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to simulate the current (average for 1960–1990) and future (in 2050 and 2070) distributions of the species using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two climate change scenarios, i.e., RCP4.5 (moderate carbon emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (peak carbon emission scenario). Our results indicated that (i) under all three climate scenarios, species distribution was predicted to both reduce and shift towards higher altitudes. (ii) Across the provinces in the NHP, the species were predicted to average lose around one-third (35%) in 2050 and one-half (47%) by 2070 of the current suitable habitat. (iii) The maximum area of climate refugia was projected between the altitudinal range of 2000 to 4000 m and predicted to shift towards higher altitudes primarily > 3000 m in the future. Our results help inform management plans and conservation strategies for mitigating the impacts of climate change on three indicator Galliforms species in the NHP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Approximately 20%–30% of plant and animal species are at risk of extinction by the end of the 21st century owing to climate change. Range shifts and range contractions in plant species will dramatically affect the distribution of animals relying on them for food and shelter. The negative impacts of climate change on forested landscapes of the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP) could change the species composition and distribution. The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus), a forest‐dwelling species, primarily depends on plants for foraging, and is assumed to be affected by climate change in NHP. Scat analyses and indigenous knowledge from Machiara National Park revealed the maximum consumption of Quercus species (natural food) and Zea mays (human grown food) by the Asiatic black bear in autumn season. We collected the occurrence data of the Asiatic black bear and its commonly used food (three Quercus spp.) in the NHP. We used the MaxEnt model to simulate current and future (in 2050 and 2070) distribution of the species under RCP4.5 (medium carbon emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (extreme carbon emission scenario). The results predict range reduction and extreme fragmentation in the habitats of all the Quercus spp. Besides, a dramatic decrease in the suitable (SH) and very highly suitable (HSH) habitats was predicted in the future. Range shift and range reduction of Quercus spp. may interrupt the denning chronology of Asiatic black bears, escalate the human‐black bear conflicts and local extirpation of the species. Given the extent and magnitude of climate change, it will likely not be enough to focus solely on the conservation of the Asiatic black bear. We need more dynamic planning aiming at mitigating the effect of climate change in forested landscapes including the Quercus forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying habitat suitability and potential corridors are important tools for biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change. We modeled habitat suitability and simulated possible corridors for movement and gene flow among the Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) population in the Northern Highlands of Pakistan (NHP). Results indicated that the areas of 13,923 km2 and 21,931 km2 suitable for the Asiatic black bear under current and future scenarios respectively. Under the future scenario, we found an area of 12,657 km2 (57.21%) as increase in suitable habitat (ISH f) and 4649 km2 (33.39%) area as a decrease in current suitable habitat (DSH c). Our model predicted that about >65% (9274 km2) of the current suitable habitat as a climate refugia which is projected from the center to southeast east and northwest of the NHP primarily in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and Pakistan Administered Kashmir (PAK). The attitudinal range of refugia was projected from 688 m to 4483 m with >56% at the elevations between 2001 m to 3000 m. A very small portion of suitable habitats (current suitable habitat = 2.75%, future suitable habitat = 5.11%) were projected under the protected areas. Maps connecting suitable habitats identified different regions delineated as important for the dispersal of Asiatic black bears, which mainly distributed in the PAK and KPK. Our results help informs conservation strategies and management plans for mitigating the impacts of climate change on Asiatic black bears in the NHP. • Asiatic black bears' distribution and dispersal paths were identified in the Northern Highlands of Pakistan (NHP). • We predicted an increased but shifted suitable habitat towards higher altitudes in the future. • The magnitude of climate change is varying across the provinces of NHP. • Two provinces of the NHP i.e., AJ&K and KPK are important for the dispersal of Asiatic black bears. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]