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New geomagnetically induced current (GIC) computations for mainland Portugal include the entire power network, with network parameters and topology provided by the transmission grid operator for all the high voltage lines (150, 220, and 400 kV). The first 3D conductivity model for the west region of the Iberian Peninsula, based on 31 broadband magnetotelluric soundings, is used in calculations, revealing the effect of different crustal domains in GIC distribution. Geomagnetic field variations are taken from Coimbra or San Fernando magnetic observatories, according to the Nearest Neighbor method, and used together with surface impedance values predicted from the new conductivity model to calculate the induced electric field on a regular grid. The global distribution of GICs over the power network is characterized based on results derived for the eight most significant storms registered in the Iberia during solar cycle 24. Substations susceptible to the highest GICs are found near the transition between the granitic geotectonic unit of Central Iberian Zone and the Lusitanian Basin. A prototype of a Hall effect sensor has been installed at a substation and is active since the end of August 2021. In order to validate our GIC model, recent measurements are compared with simulations. GIC computation is prone to uncertainties from various sources, possibly contributing with different weights to the final error in computed values. Here, we evaluate the contribution of substation earthing resistance and nonuniqueness of the conductivity model to the final GIC uncertainties. Plain Language Summary: Magnetic storms on the Sun can trigger geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) on Earth, affecting technological infrastructures and gadgets we depend upon. As an example, they can interfere with the normal operation of power networks transporting electricity by inducing spurious currents along the conducting lines, which are called geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). We computed GICs at all substations of the transmission power network in Portugal mainland, gathering information on the electric circuit parameters, the most intense GMD events registered at the magnetic observatories of Coimbra (Portugal) and San Fernando (Spain), and measuring the Earth response to electromagnetic waves of different frequencies to obtain a conductivity model. Our results show the influence of local geotectonic structures on the geographic distribution of GICs during a given GMD. GICs tend to be stronger close to sharp discontinuities of the ground resistivity, which occur at the transition between different geotectonic units. Among different possible sources of errors in GICs, we compute error estimates due to uncertainties in the ground conductivity model and in the grounding resistances at certain substations. Finally, we give account of a first GIC sensor installed in the power network, and use its data to test different conductivity models. Key Points: Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) are estimated for mainland Portugal using the first 3D crust‐mantle conductivity model for the whole territoryThe geotectonic environment strongly influences the location of power network substations most susceptible to GICsFirst GIC measurements at Paraimo substation are used to test the conductivity model [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Fire Weather Index (FWI) is used to assess meteorological fire danger worldwide. It has been argued that it lacks an atmospheric instability term. A new enhanced FWI (FWIe) was recently developed incorporating atmospheric instability in the form of the Continuous Haines Index (CHI). Here, the first climatological and evolution analysis of these indexes was performed using ERA5 data for the 1980–2020 period. There was a prevalence of higher values over central Iberia; these were heavily modulated by the climate types, topography, and land cover. Southwest and east Iberia suffered the greatest decadal increases in all three indexes. Relating both indexes to occurrences detected by satellite, through fire radiative power (FRP), showed that FWIe provided an improved meteorological fire danger assessment in higher-risk conditions. This showed that greater-risk observations were more prone to be affected by atmospheric instability than lower-danger observations. Case studies for the 2017 central Portugal and 2003 and 2018 Monchique wildfires were additionally conducted to verify these conclusions. This work points to the usefulness of FWIe when/where atmospheric instability may play a critical role in the development of wildfires, which may contribute to a more focused deployment of suppression mechanisms by the authorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall is considered the most important physical process for landslide triggering in Portugal. It is expected that changes in the precipitation regimes in the region, as a direct consequence of climate change, will have influence in the occurrence of extreme rainfall events that will be more frequently, throughout the century. The aim of this study relied on the assessment of the projected future changes in the extreme precipitation over Portugal mainland and quantifying the correlation between extreme rainfall events and landslide events through Rainfall Triggering Thresholds (RTTs). This methodology was applied for two specific locations within two Portuguese areas of great geomorphological interest. To analyze the past frequency of landslide events, we resorted to the DISASTER database. To evaluate the possible projected changes in the extreme precipitation, we used the Iberia02 dataset and the EURO-CORDEX models' runs at a 0.11° spatial resolution. It was analyzed the models' performance to simulate extreme values in the precipitation series. The simulated precipitation relied on RCM-GCM models' runs, from EURO-CORDEX, and a multimodel ensemble mean. The extreme precipitation assessment relied on the values associated to the highest percentiles, and to the values associated to the RTTs' percentiles. To evaluate the possible future changes of the precipitation series, both at the most representative percentiles and RTTs' percentiles, a comparison was made between the simulated values from EURO-CORDEX historical runs (1971–2000) and the simulated values from EURO-CORDEX future runs (2071–2100), considering two concentration scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. In the models' performance, the multimodel ensemble mean appeared to be within the best representing models. As for the projected changes in the extreme precipitation for the end of the century, when following the RCP 4.5 scenario, most models projected an increase in the extreme values, whereas, when following the RCP 8.5 scenario, most models projected a decrease in the extreme values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The IPCC 1.5 °C report argues for a 50% cut of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Dangerous gaps lie between what is required to reach the 1.5 °C objective, what governments have pledged and what is happening in reality. Here, we develop 'climate policy gap' graphics for Portugal, Spain and Morocco to help reveal this divide and quantify the under-reaction between diagnosis and action, through layers of political intended and unintended miscommunication, insufficient action and the power of the fossil fuels industries. The climate policy gaps for the three nations reveal overshoots on even the most ambitious levels of emissions reductions pledged when compared with trajectories compatible with 1.5 °C or even 2 °C limits. This research suggests that there is a built-in feature of under-reaction in climate policy, which staves off any emission pathways compatible with stopping a temperature rise above 1.5 °C by 2100. It shows that the climate policy gap is a political and methodological tool that reveals systemic shortcomings of government climate action. Its visibility identifies benchmarks and sectors that should be activated to close these gaps in response to the growing popular demands for climate justice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mapping the suitability of groundwater-dependent vegetation in semi-arid Mediterranean areas is fundamental for the sustainable management of groundwater resources and groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) under the risks of climate change scenarios. For the present study the distribution of deep-rooted woody species in southern Portugal was modeled using climatic, hydrological and topographic environmental variables. To do so, Quercus suber, Quercus ilex and Pinus pinea were used as proxy species to represent the groundwater-dependent vegetation (GDV). Model fitting was performed between the proxy species Kernel density and the selected environmental predictors using (1) a simple linear model and (2) a geographically weighted regression (GWR) to account for autocorrelation of the spatial data and residuals. When comparing the results of both models, the GWR modeling results showed improved goodness of fit as opposed to the simple linear model. Climatic indices were the main drivers of GDV density, followed by a much lower influence by groundwater depth, drainage density and slope. Groundwater depth did not appear to be as pertinent in the model as initially expected, accounting only for about 7 % of the total variation compared to 88 % for climate drivers. The relative proportion of model predictor coefficients was used as weighting factors for multicriteria analysis to create a suitability map for the GDV in southern Portugal showing where the vegetation most likely relies on groundwater to cope with aridity. A validation of the resulting map was performed using independent data of the normalized difference water index (NDWI), a satellite-derived vegetation index. June, July and August of 2005 NDWI anomalies, for the years 1999–2009, were calculated to assess the response of active woody species in the region after an extreme drought. The results from the NDWI anomalies provided an overall good agreement with the suitability to host GDV. The model was considered to be reliable for predicting the distribution of the studied vegetation. The methodology developed to map GDVs will allow for the prediction of the evolution of the distribution of GDV according to climate change and aid stakeholder decision-making concerning priority areas of water resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large temperature spatio-temporal gradients are a common feature of Mediterranean climates. The Portuguese complex topography and coastlines enhances such features, and in a small region large temperature gradients with high interannual variability is detected. In this study, the EURO-CORDEX high-resolution regional climate simulations (0.11° and 0.44° resolutions) are used to investigate the maximum and minimum temperature projections across the twenty-first century according to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. An additional WRF simulation with even higher resolution (9 km) for RCP8.5 scenario is also examined. All simulations for the historical period (1971-2000) are evaluated against the available station observations and the EURO-CORDEX model results are ranked in order to build multi-model ensembles. In present climate models are able to reproduce the main topography/coast related temperature gradients. Although there are discernible differences between models, most present a cold bias. The multi-model ensembles improve the overall representation of the temperature. The ensembles project a significant increase of the maximum and minimum temperatures in all seasons and scenarios. Maximum increments of 8 °C in summer and autumn and between 2 and 4 °C in winter and spring are projected in RCP8.5. The temperature distributions for all models show a significant increase in the upper tails of the PDFs. In RCP8.5 more than half of the extended summer (MJJAS) has maximum temperatures exceeding the historical 90th percentile and, on average, 60 tropical nights are projected for the end of the century, whilst there are only 7 tropical nights in the historical period. Conversely, the number of cold days almost disappears. The yearly average number of heat waves increases by seven to ninefold by 2100 and the most frequent length rises from 5 to 22 days throughout the twenty-first century. 5% of the longest events will last for more than one month. The amplitude is overwhelming larger, reaching values which are not observed in the historical period. More than half of the heat waves will be stronger than the extreme heat wave of 2003 by the end of the century. The future heatwaves will also enclose larger areas, approximately 100 events in the 2071-2100 period (more than 3 per year) will cover the whole country. The RCP4.5 scenario has in general smaller magnitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large outbreak of Legionnaires’ disease occurred in November 2014 nearby Lisbon, Portugal. This epidemic infected 377 individuals by the Legionella pneumophila bacteria, resulting in 14 deaths. The primary source of transmission was contaminated aerosolized water which, when inhaled, lead to atypical pneumonia. The unseasonably warm temperatures during October 2014 may have played a role in the proliferation of Legionella species in cooling tower systems. The episode was further exacerbated by high relative humidity and a thermal inversion which limited the bacterial dispersion. Here, we analyze if the Legionella outbreak event occurred during a situation of extreme potential recirculation and/or stagnation characteristics. In order to achieve this goal, the Allwine and Whiteman approach was applied for a hindcast simulation covering the affected area during a near 20-year long period (1989-2007) and then for an independent period covering the 2014 event (15 October to 13 November 2014). The results regarding the average daily critical transport indices for the 1989-2007 period clearly indicate that the airshed is prone to stagnation as these events have a dominant presence through most of the study period (42%), relatively to the occurrence of recirculation (18%) and ventilation (17%) events. However, the year of 2014 represents an exceptional year when compared to the 1989-2007 period, with 53 and 33% of the days being classified as under stagnation and recirculation conditions, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Projections show a clear reduction of soil moisture through the entire annual cycle. • Soil moisture deficits up to 6x (7x) are projected to occur for mid- (end-) of-century. • Semi-arid climate is expected to cover almost 2/3 of the mainland in the RCP8.5. Climate change constitutes a major threat for all the Mediterranean countries due to the combination of large precipitation reductions and temperature increases and the higher frequency of climate extremes, especially driving water scarcity and all the derived multi-sectoral impacts. Portugal, as most of the Mediterranean countries, already endures larger frequencies of droughts and deficits in soil moisture and water storage. In the current study, the future projections of soil moisture are examined using a multi-model EURO-CORDEX regional climate ensemble, in agreement with three future emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). The drivers of future soil moisture dynamics are also analysed and its effect on relative humidity and evaporation rates. As expected, the projections show a clear reduction of soil moisture through the entire annual cycle, in response to the large decrease in precipitation and temperature increase, via a massive growth of potential evapotranspiration. The overall total soil moisture decreases ranges from −5% for the RCP2.6 to −20% (-10%) for the RCP8.5 (RCP4.5), w.r.t. the present climate. In the historical period, soil moisture deficits rarely reach values 3x over the standard deviation, but projections reveal that for the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) for the mid-century deficits up to 5x (6x) are projected to occur, and for the end-of-century even 7x for the RCP8.5. The annual cycle of soil moisture is in present and future climate determined by precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, and deficit is both enhanced and covers a wider monthly window in the future, especially for the RCP8.5. The surface humidity also decreases importantly, up to −4% and −8% in spring and summer in the end-of-the-century, in agreement with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Resulting from the projected changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, the typical semi-arid climate, which in present climate is confined to a small south-eastern region of Portugal, is expected to cover almost 2/3 of the mainland in the case of RCP8.5. Finally, this study was developed in the framework of the National Roadmap for Adaptation XXI - Portuguese Territorial Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for XXI Century (RNA2100) project and aims at delivering a deeper and different featuring of terrestrial water for adaptation purposes in a Mediterranean country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Portugal, the precipitation regimes present one of the highest volumes of extreme precipitation occurrence in Europe, and one of the largest mean precipitation spatial gradient (annual observed values above 2,500 mm in the NW and under 400 mm in the SE). Moreover, southern Europe is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to climate change. In the ENSEMBLES framework many climate change assessment studies were performed, but none focused on Portuguese precipitation. An extensive evaluation and ranking of the RCMs results addressing the representation of mean precipitation and frequency distributions was performed through the computation of statistical errors and frequency distribution scores. With these results, an ensemble was constructed; giving the same weight to mean precipitation and distribution model skills. This ensemble reveals a good ability to describe the precipitation regime in Portugal, and enables the evaluation of the eventual impact of climate change on Portuguese precipitation according to the A1B scenario. The mean seasonal precipitation is expected to decrease substantially in all seasons, excluding winter. This reduction is statistically significant; it spans from less than 20 % in the north to 40 % in the south in the intermediate seasons, and is above 50 % in the largest portion of mainland in summer. At a basin level the precipitation diminishes in all months for all the basins with exception of December. Total precipitation PDFs reveal an important decrease of the contribution from low to moderate/high precipitation bins, and a striking rise for days with extreme rainfall, up to 30 %. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on a study related to a genetic screening of SDHB, SDHC, SDHD and SDHAF2 genes in patients with paragangliomas (PGL) and phaeochromocytomas (PCC) neuroendocrine tumours from northern Portugal. It informs that 37 individuals diagnosed with PGL or PCC between 2009 and 2012, under study. The study concluded that the majority of PGL in northern Portugal patients develop as a consequence of germline SDHx mutations.

This study proposes a dynamically downscaled climatology of Portugal, produced by a high resolution (9 km) WRF simulation, forced by 20 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis (1989-2008), nested in an intermediate domain with 27 km of resolution. The Portuguese mainland is characterized by large precipitation gradients, with observed mean annual precipitation ranging from about 400 to over 2,200 mm, with a very wet northwest and rather dry southeast, largely explained by orographic processes. Model results are compared with all available stations with continuous records, comprising daily information in 32 stations for temperature and 308 for precipitation, through the computation of mean climatologies, standard statistical errors on daily to seasonally timescales, and distributions of extreme events. Results show that WRF at 9 km outperforms ERA-Interim in all analyzed variables, with good results in the representation of the annual cycles in each region. The biases of minimum and maximum temperature are reduced, with improvement of the description of temperature variability at the extreme range of its distribution. The largest gain of the high resolution simulations is visible in the rainiest regions of Portugal, where orographic enhancement is crucial. These improvements are striking in the high ranking percentiles in all seasons, describing extreme precipitation events. WRF results at 9 km compare favorably with published results supporting its use as a high-resolution regional climate model. This higher resolution allows a better representation of extreme events that are of major importance to develop mitigation/adaptation strategies by policy makers and downstream users of regional climate models in applications such as flash floods or heat waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the past years, there has been a growing concern in designing physical activity (PA) programmes for elderly people, because evidence suggests that such health promotion interventions may reduce the deleterious effects of the ageing process. Quality is an important issue when designing a PA programme for older people. Some studies support the Excellence Model of the European Foundation for Quality Management (EFQM) as an operational framework for evaluating the quality of an organization. Within this context, the aim of this study was to characterize the quality management models of the PA programmes developed by Portuguese Local Administration to enhance quality of life for elderly people, according to the criteria of the EFQM Excellence Model. Methods: A methodological triangulation was conducted in 26 PA programmes using questionnaire surveys, semistructured interviews and document analysis. We used standard approaches to the statistical analysis of data including frequencies and percentages for the categorical data. Results: Results showed that Processes (65,38%), Leadership (61,03%), Customer results (58,46) and People (51,28%) had high percentage occurrences of quality practices. In contrast, Partnerships and resources (45,77%), People results (41,03%), Policy and strategy (37,91%), Key performance results (19,23%) and Society results (19,23%) had lower percentage occurrences. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that although there are some good practices in PA programmes, there are still relevant areas that require improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leukotriene A4 hydrolase (LTA4H) is a key enzyme in the eicosanoid pathway. lta4h locus polymorphisms have previously been linked to tuberculosis (TB) susceptibility and disease outcome in a Vietnamese dataset, but further studies suggested that those results were poorly reproducible. We, therefore, compared the full set of variants (113 SNPs) within the gene in a Portuguese dataset of 112 TB patients and 120 controls, using both the frequency of SNPs and haplotypes, in order to assess their association with TB susceptibility. Although we obtained no significant differences between the TB patients and the control group, linkage analysis showed that an extensively typed polymorphism, rs17525495, was associated with 21 other SNPs, all displaying evidence of association to lower LTA4H expression. While the derived alleles of these SNPs showed a moderately higher frequency in the TB group, differences were not significant. In contrast to Asian populations, where these SNPs are much more frequent, the low frequencies of candidate SNPs in Europeans render them less pertinent in a public health context. Consequently, the typing of specific polymorphisms as a strategy to establish preventive measures and differential TB drug treatments is important but needs to take into consideration that haplotypic background and structure can be substantially different in distinct geographic regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]