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In 2023, a second wave of the global mpox epidemic, which is mainly affecting men who have sex with men (MSM), was observed in some countries. Herein, we benefited from a large viral sequence sampling (76/121; 63%) and vast epidemiological data to characterise the re-emergence and circulation of the Monkeypox virus (MPXV) in Portugal during 2023. We also modelled transmission and forecasted public health scenarios through a compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model. Our results suggest that the 2023 mpox wave in Portugal resulted from limited introduction(s) of MPXV belonging to C.1.1 sublineage, hypothetically from Asia, followed by sustained viral transmission and potential exportation to other countries. We estimated that the contribution of the MSM high sexual activity group to mpox transmission was 120 (95% CrI: 30-3553) times higher than that of the low sexual activity group. However, among the high sexual activity group, vaccinated individuals likely contributed approximately eight times less [0.123 (95% CrI: 0.068-0.208)] than the unvaccinated ones. Vaccination was also linked to potential reduced disease severity, with a Mpox Severity Score of 6.0 in the vaccinated group compared to 7.0 in unvaccinated individuals. Scenario analysis indicated that transmission is highly sensitive to sexual behaviour, projecting that a slight increase in the MSM sub-population with high sexual activity can trigger new mpox waves. This study strongly supports that continued vaccination, targeted awareness among risk groups and routine genomic epidemiology is needed to anticipate and respond to novel MPXV threats (e.g. global dissemination of clade I viruses).

Introduction: Early-onset Type 1 diabetes (EOT1D) is considered a disease subtype with distinctive immunological and clinical features. While both Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) and non-HLA variants contribute to age at T1D diagnosis, detailed analyses of EOT1D-specific genetic determinants are still lacking. This study scrutinized the involvement of the HLA class II locus in EOT1D genetic control., Methods: We conducted genetic association and regularized logistic regression analyses to evaluate genotypic, haplotypic and allelic variants in DRB1, DQA1 and DQB1 genes in children with EOT1D (diagnosed at ≤5 years of age; n=97), individuals with later-onset disease (LaOT1D; diagnosed 8-30 years of age; n=96) and nondiabetic control subjects (n=169), in the Portuguese population., Results: Allelic association analysis of EOT1D and LaOT1D unrelated patients in comparison with controls, revealed that the rare DRB1*04:08 allele is a distinctive EOT1D susceptibility factor (corrected p-value=7.0x10 -7 ). Conversely, the classical T1D risk allele DRB1*04:05 was absent in EOT1D children while was associated with LaOT1D (corrected p-value=1.4x10 -2 ). In corroboration, HLA class II haplotype analysis showed that the rare DRB1*04:08-DQ8 haplotype is specifically associated with EOT1D (corrected p-value=1.4x10 -5 ) and represents the major HLA class II genetic driver and discriminative factor in the development of early onset disease., Discussion: This study uncovered that EOT1D holds a distinctive spectrum of HLA class II susceptibility loci , which includes risk factors overlapping with LaOT1D and discriminative genetic configurations. These findings warrant replication studies in larger multicentric settings encompassing other ethnicities and may impact target screening strategies and follow-up of young children with high T1D genetic risk as well as personalized therapeutic approaches., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. The author(s) declared that they were an editorial board member of Frontiers, at the time of submission. This had no impact on the peer review process and the final decision., (Copyright © 2024 Caramalho, Matoso, Ligeiro, Paixão, Sobral, Fitas, Limbert, Demengeot and Penha-Gonçalves.)

Pathogen genome sequencing during epidemics enhances our ability to identify and understand suspected clusters and investigate their relationships. Here, we combine genomic and epidemiological data of the 2022 mpox outbreak to better understand early viral spread, diversification and transmission dynamics. By sequencing 52% of the confirmed cases in Portugal, we identified the mpox virus sublineages with the highest impact on case numbers and fitted them into a global context, finding evidence that several international sublineages probably emerged or spread early in Portugal. We estimated a 62% infection reporting rate and that 1.3% of the population of men who have sex with men in Portugal were infected. We infer the critical role played by sexual networks and superspreader gatherings, such as sauna attendance, in the dissemination of mpox virus. Overall, our findings highlight genomic epidemiology as a tool for the real-time monitoring and control of mpox epidemics, and can guide future vaccine policy in a highly susceptible population., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

We estimated comparative primary and booster vaccine effectiveness (VE) of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5 and BA.2 lineages against infection and disease progression. During April-June 2022, we implemented a case-case and cohort study and classified lineages using whole-genome sequencing or spike gene target failure. For the case-case study, we estimated the adjusted odds ratios (aORs) of vaccination using a logistic regression. For the cohort study, we estimated VE against disease progression using a penalized logistic regression. We observed no reduced VE for primary (aOR 1.07 [95% CI 0.93-1.23]) or booster (aOR 0.96 [95% CI 0.84-1.09]) vaccination against BA.5 infection. Among BA.5 case-patients, booster VE against progression to hospitalization was lower than that among BA.2 case-patients (VE 77% [95% CI 49%-90%] vs. VE 93% [95% CI 86%-97%]). Although booster vaccination is less effective against BA.5 than against BA.2, it offers substantial protection against progression from BA.5 infection to severe disease.