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The conservation outcomes of a protected area depend on management actions. The effectiveness of protected area management remains a concern for donors and policy-makers. However, very few feasible methods assessing the ability and performance of management teams have been developed. Behavioral shifts in habitat usage, direct and sensitive wildlife responses to threats, have been ignored in the evaluation of protected area management. To address the technical limitations, we developed a method that uses the behavioral dynamics of target species as indicators of the efficacy of threat reduction, control, and overall management effort. By comparing wildlife behavior with threat avoidance distances and patterns we can examine threat mitigation efficacy as a proxy for overall reserve management effectiveness. Using evidence of giant panda habitat utilization in eleven reserves across Qinling Mountains from 2000 to 2012, we built a model of behavior based on the avoidance of four types of anthropogenic threat. We stratified the eleven reserves into five efficacies, of which Changqing reserve was deemed to have the highest management effectiveness. Our approach was validated and supported by changes in suitable habitat and population size across reserves. Focusing on the end result of all threats and management effort means that our framework is straightforward for reserve staff to implement, produces easily interpreted results, and is worthy of application. This study highlights the value of behavioral dynamics when making a full and scientific assessment of the effectiveness of protected area management, and helps investors and policy-makers realize the efficacy of conservation inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To effectively resolve conflicts between natural resources and environmental protection and guarantee ecological safety, the Chinese government has proposed a national strategy to delineate ecological conservation redlines (ECRs). The ECR is defined as the least amount of area needed to guarantee the national and regional ecological safety of ecosystem services and implementation of strict mandatory protection policy. Because this was piloted by government and theoretical study has lagged, there remains no fully accepted ECR delineation framework. Being neglected in the current delineating guidelines for ECR, we focused on ECR delineation of the Qinling Mountains based on the sustainable survival needs of giant pandas ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ) to explore the ECR delineation approach with species persistence. We define the concepts of basic, current and future ECR, and set the principals and procedures for ECR delineation based on the historical and current giant panda population range, current and future habitat modeling with data from national giant panda surveys, and the impacts of climate change. Our results indicate that the basic ECR is 369,531 ha; the current ECR is 422,149 ha with 33,498 ha of suitable and sub-suitable habitat from the basic ECR covering 67% of current giant panda reserves. The future ECR in 2050 is 516,838 ha with 109,990 ha future suitable and sub-suitable habitat based on current ECR and covers 84% of current reserves. As the foundation of an ecosystem, species deserve to be an important basis when delineating ECR. Concentrating on the needs of long-term species survival, rich and powerful study of target species’ biology makes ECR delineation feasible and operational, while strengthening theoretical and scientific support at better temporal and spatial scales. The approach and index system employed here is a scientific framework for ECR delineation, especially given the temporal scale of population and habitat, and the main driving factors for future habitat dynamics. This method avoids the complicated process of ecological assessment. We hope our methods and reasoning can be incorporated into national guidelines and applied to ECR delineation across China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One way that climate change will impact animal distributions is by altering habitat suitability and habitat fragmentation. Understanding the impacts of climate change on currently threatened species is of immediate importance because complex conservation planning will be required. Here, we mapped changes to the distribution, suitability, and fragmentation of giant panda habitat under climate change and quantified the direction and elevation of habitat shift and fragmentation patterns. These data were used to develop a series of new conservation strategies for the giant panda. Qinling Mountains, Shaanxi, China. Data from the most recent giant panda census, habitat factors, anthropogenic disturbance, climate variables, and climate predictions for the year 2050 (averaged across four general circulation models) were used to project giant panda habitat in Maxent. Differences in habitat patches were compared between now and 2050. While climate change will cause a 9.1% increase in suitable habitat and 9% reduction in subsuitable habitat by 2050, no significant net variation in the proportion of suitable and subsuitable habitat was found. However, a distinct climate change-induced habitat shift of 11 km eastward by 2050 is predicted firstly. Climate change will reduce the fragmentation of suitable habitat at high elevations and exacerbate the fragmentation of subsuitable habitat below 1,900 m above sea level. Reduced fragmentation at higher elevations and worsening fragmentation at lower elevations have the potential to cause overcrowding of giant pandas at higher altitudes, further exacerbating habitat shortage in the central Qinling Mountains. The habitat shift to the east due to climate change may provide new areas for giant pandas but poses severe challenges for future conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]