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To assess the impact of HIV infection on mortality and the accuracy of AIDS reporting on death certificates, we analyzed data from 6704 homosexual and bisexual men in the San Francisco City Clinic cohort. Identification of AIDS cases and deaths in the cohort was determined through multiple sources, including the national AIDS surveillance registry and the National Death Index. Through 1990, 1518 deaths had been reported in the cohort and 1292 death certificates obtained. Of the 1292 death certificates, 1162 were for known AIDS cases, but 9% of the AIDS cases did not have HIV infection or AIDS noted on the death certificate. Only 0.7% of the decedents had AIDS listed as a cause of death and had not been reported to AIDS surveillance. AIDS and HIV infection was the leading cause of death in the cohort, with the highest proportionate mortality ratio (85%) and standardized mortality ratio (153 in 1987), and the largest number of years of potential life lost (32,008 years). The devastating impact of HIV infection on mortality is increasing and will require continued efforts to prevent and treat HIV infection.

OBJECTIVE--To characterise the natural history of sexually transmitted HIV-I infection in homosexual and bisexual men. DESIGN--Cohort study. SETTING--San Francisco municipal sexually transmitted disease clinic. PATIENTS--Cohort included 6705 homosexual and bisexual men originally recruited from 1978 to 1980 for studies of sexually transmitted hepatitis B. This analysis is of 489 cohort members who were either HIV-I seropositive on entry into the cohort (n = 312) or seroconverted during the study period and had less than or equal to 24 months between the dates of their last seronegative and first seropositive specimens (n = 177). A subset of 442 of these men was examined in 1988 or 1989 or had been reported to have developed AIDS. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Development of clinical signs and symptoms of HIV-I infection, including AIDS, AIDS related complex, asymptomatic generalised lymphadenopathy, and no signs or symptoms of infection. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--Of the 422 men examined in 1988 or 1989 or reported as having AIDS, 341 had been infected from 1977 to 1980; 49% (167) of these men had died of AIDS, 10% (34) were alive with AIDS, 19% (65) had AIDS related complex, 3% (10) had asymptomatic generalised lymphadenopathy, and 19% (34) had no clinical signs or symptoms of HIV-I infection. Cumulative risk of AIDS by duration of HIV-I infection was analysed for all 489 men by the Kaplan-Meier method. Of these 489 men, 226 (46%) had been diagnosed as having AIDS. We estimated that 13% of cohort members will have developed AIDS within five years of seroconversion, 51% within 10 years, and 54% within 11.1 years. CONCLUSION--Our analysis confirming the importance of duration of infection to clinical state and the high risk of AIDS after infection underscores the importance of continuing efforts both to prevent transmission of HIV-I and to develop further treatments to slow or stall the progression of HIV-I infection to AIDS.

Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) surveillance data for both the United States and San Francisco indicate that Kaposi's sarcoma is more common in homosexual and bisexual men with AIDS than in other adults with AIDS, and that the proportion of newly diagnosed AIDS cases presenting with Kaposi's sarcoma has been significantly declining over time. The changing epidemiology of Kaposi's sarcoma was analyzed in a well-characterized cohort of homosexual and bisexual men; laboratory and interview data from a sample of these men were evaluated for determinants of and cofactors associated with Kaposi's sarcoma. Among 1,341 men with AIDS, the proportion presenting with Kaposi's sarcoma declined from 79% in 1981 to 25% in 1989. Compared with other men with AIDS, men with Kaposi's sarcoma had a shorter interval from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seroconversion to AIDS diagnosis (median, 77 vs. 86 months). Men with and without Kaposi's sarcoma did not significantly differ with respect to number of sexual partners, history of certain sexually transmitted or enteric diseases, use of certain recreational drugs (including nitrite inhalants), or participation in certain specific sexual practices. The decline in Kaposi's sarcoma may at least partly be due to a shorter latency period from infection to disease. Although cofactors for the development of Kaposi's sarcoma may exist, many previously hypothesized agents were not supported by this analysis.

We used death certificate data for San Francisco residents from 1979 to 1986 to calculate the number of deaths and years of potential life lost before age 65 (YPLL) for leading causes of death. Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related deaths were defined as including cytomegalovirus infection (ICD-9 078.5); cryptococcal infection (ICD-9 117.5); Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (ICD-9 136.3); other malignant neoplasms of the skin, site unspecified (ICD-9 173.9); deficiency of cell-mediated immunity (ICD-9 279.1); and unspecified immunity deficiency (ICD-9 279.3). These deaths increased from 5 (0.1% of all deaths) in 1979 to 534 (6.6%) in 1986. Of the 1,225 deaths caused by AIDS-related diseases during this period, 1,032 (84%) occurred in men aged 20-49 years. AIDS-related deaths increased between 1979 and 1986 from 0 to 44 (25% of all deaths), 0 to 257 (44%), and 0 to 150 (35%) in men aged 20-29 years, 30-39 years, and 40-49 years, respectively. In 1986, AIDS-related diseases were the third leading cause of deaths and the leading cause of YPLL among male San Francisco residents.

To evaluate the epidemiology of HIV infection in Asian and Pacific Islander populations in San Francisco, we compared cases of AIDS reported in Asians and Pacific Islanders with those reported in other racial and ethnic groups. The incidence of AIDS in Asians and Pacific Islanders was significantly lower than in Whites, Blacks, Latinos and American Indians and Alaska natives. AIDS cases among Asians and Pacific Islanders have increased 177% since 1985 compared with 54% in other racial and ethnic groups, with the greatest increase in homosexual and bisexual men and transfusion recipients. Among Asian and Pacific Islander ethnic groups, the incidence of AIDS was 168 cases per 100,000 in Polynesians, 141 per 100,000 in Japanese, 92 per 100,000 in 100 Filipinos, 72 per 100,000 in southeast Asians, and 21 per 100,000 in Chinese. We conclude that AIDS cases are disproportionately increasing in Asians and Pacific Islanders in San Francisco.