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Erikson, L.H.; O'Neill, A.C., and Barnard, P.L., 2018. Estimating fluvial discharges coincident with 21st century coastal storms modeled with CoSMoS. In: Shim, J.-S.; Chun, I., and Lim, H.S. (eds.), Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 791–795. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. On the open coast, flooding is largely driven by tides, storm surge, waves, and in areas near coastal inlets, the magnitude and co-occurrence of high fluvial discharges. Statistical methods are typically used to estimate the individual probability of coastal storm and fluvial discharge occurrences for use in sophisticated flood hazard models. A challenge arises when considering possible future climate changes and the relation between the intensity of extreme coastal water levels and high fluvial discharges. In this study, the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) is used to dynamically downscale global climate projections to local-scale storm-driven coastal water levels, including associated fluvial discharges. An efficient approach to derive 21st century projected fluvial discharges for rivers within San Francisco Bay was developed, leveraging a readily-available time-series of projected (2010 – 2100) discharge rates of the predominant river system (the "Delta"). Delta projections were used to estimate flow rates of 8 Bay rivers for the IPCC's CMIP5 RCP4.5 climate scenario. Relationships describing discharge rates, normalized by respective watershed areas, were developed and applied to projected data to generate 21st century fluvial discharge time-series for each river. Results indicate decreasing discharge rates throughout the 21st century with the exception of extreme flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Over 150million m3 of sand-sized sediment has disappeared from the central region of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System during the last half century. This enormous loss may reflect numerous anthropogenic influences, such as watershed damming, bay-fill development, aggregate mining, and dredging. The reduction in Bay sediment also appears to be linked to a reduction in sediment supply and recent widespread erosion of adjacent beaches, wetlands, and submarine environments. A unique, multi-faceted provenance study was performed to definitively establish the primary sources, sinks, and transport pathways of beach-sized sand in the region, thereby identifying the activities and processes that directly limit supply to the outer coast. This integrative program is based on comprehensive surficial sediment sampling of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System, including the seabed, Bay floor, area beaches, adjacent rock units, and major drainages. Analyses of sample morphometrics and biological composition (e.g., Foraminifera) were then integrated with a suite of tracers including 87Sr/86Sr and 143Nd/144Nd isotopes, rare earth elements, semi-quantitative X-ray diffraction mineralogy, and heavy minerals, and with process-based numerical modeling, in situ current measurements, and bedform asymmetry to robustly determine the provenance of beach-sized sand in the region. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The morphology of ~45,000 bedforms from 13 multibeam bathymetry surveys was used as a proxy for identifying net bedload sediment transport directions and pathways throughout the San Francisco Bay estuary and adjacent outer coast. The spatially-averaged shape asymmetry of the bedforms reveals distinct pathways of ebb and flood transport. Additionally, the region-wide, ebb-oriented asymmetry of 5% suggests net seaward-directed transport within the estuarine-coastal system, with significant seaward asymmetry at the mouth of San Francisco Bay (11%), through the northern reaches of the Bay (7–8%), and among the largest bedforms (21% for λ >50m). This general indication for the net transport of sand to the open coast strongly suggests that anthropogenic removal of sediment from the estuary, particularly along clearly defined seaward transport pathways, will limit the supply of sand to chronically eroding, open-coast beaches. The bedform asymmetry measurements significantly agree (up to ~76%) with modeled annual residual transport directions derived from a hydrodynamically-calibrated numerical model, and the orientation of adjacent, flow-sculpted seafloor features such as mega-flute structures, providing a comprehensive validation of the technique. The methods described in this paper to determine well-defined, cross-validated sediment transport pathways can be applied to estuarine-coastal systems globally where bedforms are present. The results can inform and improve regional sediment management practices to more efficiently utilize often limited sediment resources and mitigate current and future sediment supply-related impacts. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The papers in this special issue feature state-of-the-art approaches to understanding the physical processes related to sediment transport and geomorphology of complex coastal–estuarine systems. Here we focus on the San Francisco Bay Coastal System, extending from the lower San Joaquin–Sacramento Delta, through the Bay, and along the adjacent outer Pacific Coast. San Francisco Bay is an urbanized estuary that is impacted by numerous anthropogenic activities common to many large estuaries, including a mining legacy, channel dredging, aggregate mining, reservoirs, freshwater diversion, watershed modifications, urban run-off, ship traffic, exotic species introductions, land reclamation, and wetland restoration. The Golden Gate strait is the sole inlet connecting the Bay to the Pacific Ocean, and serves as the conduit for a tidal flow of ~8×109 m3/day, in addition to the transport of mud, sand, biogenic material, nutrients, and pollutants. Despite this physical, biological and chemical connection, resource management and prior research have often treated the Delta, Bay and adjacent ocean as separate entities, compartmentalized by artificial geographic or political boundaries. The body of work herein presents a comprehensive analysis of system-wide behavior, extending a rich heritage of sediment transport research that dates back to the groundbreaking hydraulic mining-impact research of G.K. Gilbert in the early 20th century. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Analysis of four historical bathymetric surveys over a 132-year period has revealed significant changes to the morphology of the San Francisco Bar, an ebb-tidal delta at the mouth of San Francisco Bay estuary. From 1873 to 2005 the San Francisco Bar vertically-eroded an average of 80 cm over a 125 km2 area, which equates to a total volume loss of 100 ± 52 million m3 of fine- to coarse-grained sand. Comparison of the surveys indicates the entire ebb-tidal delta contracted radially, with the crest moving landward an average of 1 km. Long-term erosion of the ebb-tidal delta is hypothesized to be due to a reduction in the tidal prism of San Francisco Bay and a decrease in coastal sediment supply, both as a result of anthropogenic activities. Prior research indicates that the tidal prism of the estuary was reduced by 9% from filling, diking, and sedimentation. Compilation of historical records dating back to 1900 reveals that a minimum of 200 million m3 of sediment has been permanently removed from the San Francisco Bay coastal system through dredging, aggregate mining, and borrow pit mining. Of this total, ∼54 million m3 of sand-sized or coarser sediment was removed from central San Francisco Bay. With grain sizes comparable to the ebb-tidal delta, and its direct connection to the bay mouth, removal of sediments from central San Francisco Bay may limit the sand supply to the delta and open coast beaches. SWAN wave modeling illustrates that changes to the morphology of the San Francisco Bar have altered the alongshore wave energy distribution at adjacent Ocean Beach, and thus may be a significant factor in a persistent beach erosion ‘hot spot’ occurring in the area. Shoreline change analyses show that the sandy shoreline in the shadow of the ebb-tidal delta experienced long-term (1850s/1890s to 2002) and short-term (1960s/1980s to 2002) accretion while the adjacent sandy shoreline exposed to open-ocean waves experienced long-term and short-term erosion. Therefore, the recently observed accelerating rates of bay sediment removal, ebb-tidal delta erosion, and open coast beach erosion are all correlated temporally. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The impact of multi-decadal, large-scale deflation (76millionm3 of sediment loss) and contraction (~1km) of a 150km2 ebb-tidal delta on hydrodynamics and sediment transport at adjacent Ocean Beach in San Francisco, CA (USA), is examined using a coupled wave and circulation model. The model is forced with representative wave and tidal conditions using recent (2005) and historic (1956) ebb-tidal delta bathymetry data sets. Comparison of the simulations indicates that along north/south trending Ocean Beach the contraction and deflation of the ebb-tidal delta have resulted in significant differences in the flow and sediment dynamics. Between 1956 and 2005 the transverse bar (the shallow attachment point of the ebb-tidal delta to the shoreline) migrated northward ~1km toward the inlet while a persistent alongshore flow and transport divergence point migrated south by ~500m such that these features now overlap. A reduction in tidal prism and sediment supply over the last century has resulted in a net decrease in offshore tidal current-generated sediment transport at the mouth of San Francisco Bay, and a relative increase in onshore-directed wave-driven transport toward the inlet, accounting for the observed contraction of the ebb-tidal delta. Alongshore migration of the transverse bar and alongshore flow divergence have resulted in an increasing proportion of onshore migrating sediment from the ebb-tidal delta to be transported north along the beach in 2005 versus south in 1956. The northerly migrating sediment is then trapped by Pt. Lobos, a rocky headland at the northern extreme of the beach, consistent with the observed shoreline accretion in this area. Conversely, alongshore migration of the transverse bar and divergence point has decreased the sediment supply to southern Ocean Beach, consistent with the observed erosion of the shoreline in this area. This study illustrates the utility of applying a high-resolution coupled circulation-wave model for understanding coastal response to large-scale bathymetric changes over multi-decadal timescales, common to many coastal systems adjacent to urbanized estuaries and watersheds worldwide. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The mineralogical compositions of 119 samples collected from throughout the San Francisco Bay coastal system, including bayfloor and seafloor, area beaches, cliff outcrops, and major drainages, were determined using X-ray diffraction (XRD). Comparison of the mineral concentrations and application of statistical cluster analysis of XRD spectra allowed for the determination of provenances and transport pathways. The use of XRD mineral identifications provides semi-quantitative compositions needed for comparisons of beach and offshore sands with potential cliff and river sources, but the innovative cluster analysis of XRD diffraction spectra provides a unique visualization of how groups of samples within the San Francisco Bay coastal system are related so that sand-sized sediment transport pathways can be inferred. The main vector for sediment transport as defined by the XRD analysis is from San Francisco Bay to the outer coast, where the sand then accumulates on the ebb tidal delta and also moves alongshore. This mineralogical link defines a critical pathway because large volumes of sediment have been removed from the Bay over the last century via channel dredging, aggregate mining, and borrow pit mining, with comparable volumes of erosion from the ebb tidal delta over the same period, in addition to high rates of shoreline retreat along the adjacent, open-coast beaches. Therefore, while previously only a temporal relationship was established, the transport pathway defined by mineralogical and geochemical tracers support the link between anthropogenic activities in the Bay and widespread erosion outside the Bay. The XRD results also establish the regional and local importance of sediment derived from cliff erosion, as well as both proximal and distal fluvial sources. This research is an important contribution to a broader provenance study aimed at identifying the driving forces for widespread geomorphic change in a heavily urbanized coastal-estuarine system. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Reliable and long-term hindcast data of water levels are essential in quantifying return period and values of extreme water levels. In order to inform design decisions on a local flood control district level, process-based numerical modeling has proven an essential tool to provide the needed temporal and spatial coverage for different extreme value analysis methods. To determine the importance of different physical processes to the extreme water levels we developed a process-based numerical model (Delft3D Flexible Mesh) and applied it to simulate a large, urban, high-energy coastal estuary (the San Francisco Bay). The unstructured grid with 1D/2DH model elements, allows for efficient model simulations and therefore it was possible to simulate over 70 years between 1950 and 2019. Results show significant skill in reproducing observations for the entire modeled time period with an average root-mean-square error of 8.0 cm. A process-based modeling approach allows for the explicit in- and exclusion of different physical processes to quantify their importance to the extremes. For the 100-year still water level (SWL), tide (70%) and non-tidal residual (NTR) (25%) explain the majority of the simulated high water levels in the Bay relative to Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). However, closer to the Delta, local fluvial inflow increases in importance. For longer return periods, the importance of tide decreases and the importance of remote NTRs and fluvial inflow increases. • A validated 1D/2DH model was used to analyze different physical processes to the extreme water levels over a 70-year hindcast. • Extreme water levels in the San Francisco Bay are mainly driven by tide and sea level anomalies at the Pacific Ocean (25%). • Deeper in the estuary, towards to the San Francisco Delta, local fluvial inflow increases in importance for extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]