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ABSTRACT This paper explores the impact on aggregate economic activity in a small, open region of an income tax funded expansion in public consumption that has no direct supply-side effects. The conventional balanced budget multiplier produces an unambiguously positive macroeconomic stimulus, but the incorporation of negative competitiveness elements, through the operation of the local labor market, renders this positive outcome less certain. Simulation using a single-region Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Scotland demonstrates that the creation of local amenity effects, and the extent to which these are incorporated into local wage bargaining, is central to the analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Governments world-wide increasingly see energy efficiency as an important aspect of sustainability. However, there is a debate in the literature as to whether the impact of improved energy efficiency on reducing energy use might be partially, or more than wholly, offset through “rebound” and “backfire” effects. This paper clarifies the theoretical conditions under which such effects would occur and explores their likely significance using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Scottish economy. We find that for Scotland a general improvement in energy efficiency in the production sectors of the economy initially produces rebound effects that eventually grow into backfire. Energy use ultimately increases in response to an efficiency gain and the ratio of GDP to CO2 emissions falls. The economic factors underpinning rebound effects are straightforward: energy efficiency improvements result in an effective cut in energy prices, which produces output, substitution, competitiveness and income effects that stimulate energy demands. However, the presence of strong rebound or even backfire does not mean that efficiency-enhancing policies are irrelevant: rather it suggests that such policies operating alone are insufficient to generate environmental improvements. The implication is that a co-ordinated portfolio of energy policies is required. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This article describes the ex post cluster evaluation framework being developed by Scottish Enterprise. It focuses primarily on the macro level evaluation and, in particular, on the use of multi-sectoral modelling techniques to identify the effects of cluster policy on key indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment and competitiveness. The Scottish Input-Output (I-O) table is a key element in this approach. The strengths and weaknesses of I-O data, both as a basis for this analysis and as a means of identifying important intra-cluster linkages are explored. Further, the article describes methods for visual representation of the linkages identified using such a method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the system-wide impact of graduates on the regional economy. Graduates enjoy a significant wage premium, often interpreted as reflecting their greater productivity relative to nongraduates. If this is so there is a clear and direct supply-side impact of higher education institution (HEI) activities on regional economies. We use an HEI-disaggregated computable general equilibrium model of Scotland to estimate the impact of the growing proportion of graduates in the Scottish labour force that is implied by the current participation rate and demographic change, taking the graduate wage premium in Scotland as an indicator of productivity enhancement. While the detailed results vary with alternative assumptions about the extent to which wage premia reflect productivity, they do suggest that the long-term supply-side impacts of HEIs provide a significant boost to regional GDP. Furthermore, the results suggest that the supply-side impacts of HEIs are likely to be more important than the expenditure impacts that are the focus of most HEI impact studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comparing each of the higher education institutions (HEIs) as a separate sector in the Scottish input-output table suggests that their expenditure patterns are homogenous and that any apparent heterogeneity in their conventional demand impacts depends primarily on scale. However, a disaggregation of their income by source reveals a disparity in their degree of dependence upon funding from the devolved Scottish Government. Acknowledging the binding budget constraint of the Scottish Government, and deriving balanced-expenditure multipliers, reveals large differences in the net-expenditure impact of HEIs upon the Scottish economy, with the source of variation being the origin of income. Applying a novel treatment of student expenditure impacts through identifying the amount of exogenous spending per student further increases the heterogeneity of the overall expenditure effects. These issues have particular importance for many governments facing increasing pressure to reduce their overall budgets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a technically feasible deep decarbonisation solution. Still it is not widely adopted, arguably due to some basic political economy and policy challenges. One issue is the large infrastructure needs of transporting and storing CO 2. However, a more fundamental challenge in the current UK industrial policy landscape is concern over introducing new costly capital requirements in industries that need to retain competitiveness in a world that has not yet fully signed up to the 'net-zero' transition demanded by the more ambitious 1.5 degrees Celsius warming target of the Paris Agreement. We take the example of high-value chemicals industries operating in the UK devolved region of Scotland and use an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to consider the nature and potential extent of export, GDP and employment losses under different illustrative polluter/government/taxpayer pays approaches to meeting the higher cost requirements. We conclude that the value from subsidising capture activity depends on the extent of export demand response to competitiveness losses resulting from firms bearing CO 2 capture costs. However, outcomes reflect trade-offs across different types of sectors and employment, and are also dependent on labour market responses to changing wage and unemployment rates. • Carbon capture involves sustained additional operating capital costs for industry. • Reduced capital efficiency impacts regional prices and industry competitiveness. • Regional GDP, jobs and earnings losses are dominated by capturing industry losses. • The extent of losses is governed by trade responses to reduced competitiveness. • A subsidy approach funded shifts the burden to household or public spending. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]