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A nested logit model predicting the probabilities of commuters choosing three different modes were constructed to test the effect of the Seoul bus reform. Some empirical findings include the following. First, the Seoul BRT system contributed to increases in the patronage of bus over subway within the BRT catchment area (BCA). Second, commuters working in the BCA are more likely to choose to commute by bus than are people living in the BCA, which indicates that high accessibility to the BRT strongly influences workers who commute to their jobs to ride the bus. Third, percentage changes in the odds of choosing bus over subway were higher than those of choosing bus or subway over automobile for both BCAs, implying that the accessibility to the BRT contributed to inducing commuters to favor bus over subway. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to validate an activity-based travel demand model, FEATHERS, using smart-card data which is collected in Seoul, South Korea, and to discuss some limits and challenges in the prediction of public traffic demands. To achieve the goal, global/local trip pattern indices and a hot-spot analysis were applied for the validation test as a comparison method in this study. Using those methods, the public traffic demands predicted by the simulation in the study area were evaluated comparing with ones in the smart-card data. As a result, FEATHERS Seoul shows the enough performance in predicting the global pattern of the public traffic demands, but a low performance in a local pattern, particularly in some areas with a mixture land-use type and/or a frequent public transit. This is because the current model does not handle such a complicate type of land-use and also a multi-modal trip in the simulation process. In conclusion, this study addressed the limits of the current model through the validation test using smart-card data and suggested some solution to the improvement in the specific models As a future work, we will apply smart-card data for the validation of the models operated in FS, such as a location choice model and a trip mode choice model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: As a study area, Seoul metropolitan area in Korea, where has been experiencing transportation problems including congestions and emissions, currently needs an alternative policy measure at the individual level, instead of large scale infrastructure constructions. Even though some researches based on an activity-based approach dealing with an individual travel behavior have been conducted in Korea, none of them used a simulation framework. Considering a genuine activity-based transportation demand forecast, there is no better option but to introduce the activity-based simulation framework. Among several activity-based simulation frameworks, Feathers will indeed be applied into the study area because it is the most viable and suitable simulation platform for that area in terms of a similar spatial dimension. Although, the application for the study area is possible on Feathers, there are potential problems, including the prohibition of using individual and household data in census, an inconsistent administrative unit in Korea and inappropriate Flemish figures and patterns for the study area. To overcome these problems, IPF for synthesizing population and a comparative study of Flemish and the study area will be applied in this study. Moreover, we plan to integrate an agent-based model with the TDM research in order to complement the activity-based model by predicting an adapted daily schedule to an individual circumstance. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]