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There are limited studies examining the association between PM2.5 exposure and incident cerebrovascular disease (CD) cases in China. In this study, daily counts of incident CD cases and daily PM2.5 concentrations were obtained in Yantai, Shandong Province, China from 2014 to 2019. We used a combination of the Poisson-distribution generalized linear model (GLM) and a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to examine the association of short-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 and incident cases of CD. The results revealed that for every 10 μg/m3 increment of PM2.5 would increase the incident CD cases by 0.216% (RR:1.00216, 95%CI:1.0016–1.0028) at lag4. The stratified analysis demonstrated that the females and residents aged 65 years or above presented higher short-term PM2.5-associated CD risks than the males and aged below 65 years. Targeted prevention strategies should be adopted to reduce the PM2.5-related CD burden, especially for the susceptible population in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hepatitis C threatens human health and brings a heavy economic burden. Shandong Province is the second most populous province in China and has uneven regional economic development. Therefore, we analyzed the incidence rate trend and regional differences of hepatitis C in Shandong Province from 2004 to 2021. The monthly and annual incidence rates of hepatitis C in Shandong Province from 2022 to 2030 were predicted by fitting Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and ARIMA-LSTM combined model. From 2004 to 2021, annual new cases of hepatitis C in Shandong Province increased from 635 to 5834, with a total of 61,707 cases. The incidence rate increased from 0.69/100 thousand in 2004 to 6.40/100 thousand in 2019, with a slight decrease in 2020 and 2021. The average annual incidence rate was 3.47/100 thousand. In terms of regional distribution, the hepatitis C incidence rate in Shandong Province was generally high in the west and low in the east. It is estimated that the hepatitis C incidence rate in Shandong Province will be 9.21 per 100 thousand in 2030. The hepatitis C incidence rate in Shandong Province showed an increasing trend from 2004 to 2019 and a decreasing trend in 2020 and 2021. Significant regional variations in incidence rate existed. An upward trend in incidence rate is predicted from 2022 to 2030. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of hepatitis C to achieve the goal of eliminating viral hepatitis by 2030. • Hepatitis C is a serious threat to human health and brings heavy economic burden. • Incidence of hepatitis C in Shandong increased and then decreased from 2004 to 2021. • Economically underdeveloped western regions have higher incidence and faster growth. • A declining trend in incidence is predicted from 2022 to 2030. • It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of hepatitis C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]