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[Display omitted] • The impetus of urbanization quality stems from urban districts and radiates outwards. • The dimension of people's lives has great potential for development. • Shandong Province formed a "H" type high quality distribution belt. • Public Services has significantly deepened the influence on urbanization quality. This study evaluates urbanization quality across 137 county-level administrative divisions in Shandong Province, China, through an evaluation indicator system developed for the county level. Utilizing a modified entropy method, this research delves into the level and spatiotemporal patterns of urbanization quality. Moreover, it scrutinizes the determinants of urbanization quality employing both Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models. The findings reveal that: (1) Throughout the study period, the urbanization quality within Shandong's county areas manifested a progressive trend; however, the pace of improvement decelerated. Significantly, the contribution of the quality of life to the overall urbanization quality index registered a notable increase, it shows that improving the quality of life has increasingly become the core driving force for improving the quality of urbanization. At the same time, it is found that the main driving force for the improvement of urbanization quality comes from the municipal district, and gradually radiates to county-level cities and counties. (2) The study identified pronounced regional disparities in urbanization quality and its constitutive dimensions across Shandong's county areas. The "H"-shaped pattern urbanization high-quality development distribution belt is formed along the main transportation lines, indicating that transportation is one of the core elements of urbanization quality improvement. At the same time, when a region has two development centers, due to the need to take into account the development of the two centers, it is possible to form an "H"-shaped pattern spatial distribution pattern. The formation of high-quality development distribution belt of H"-shaped pattern urbanization indicates that Shandong Province is a typical dual-center development model. (3) Among the factors influencing urbanization quality, the number of domestic invention patents per 10,000 people and population density were found to exert significant effects, displaying a considerable degree of spatial variability, it shows that attracting a large number of innovative talents is an important strategy to improve the quality of urbanization. At the same time, based on the measurement results, it is found that if Shandong Province continues to invest 2.1 trillion yuan to improve the quality of people's lives, it will greatly improve the urbanization quality in the county areas of Shandong Province. It is expected that around 2069, about 80% of the county areas in the study area will achieve high quality and relatively high quality development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whilst China experiences long-term rapid urbanization, urban shrinkage, as a new normal, has become a common phenomenon in urban development along with growth. In this study, we innovatively established a full-quadrant urban growth-shrinkage model from the dimensions of population, economy, and space. We identified the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of city growth and shrinkage at the county scale based on multi-source data, hot spot analysis, and stepwise regression, and explored the differences and trends among administrative units with Chinese characteristics in Shandong, China, a province that attaches great importance to the high-quality development of county economy but has large internal differences. The results are as follows. (1) Counties with population- and economy-related shrinkage in Shandong Province gradually increased and tended to intensify. In 2020, it presented a pattern of urban growth along the river and the sea area and significant shrinkage in the rest of the region. Meanwhile, the urban growth in the spatial dimension was more obvious, and the hotspot areas in population and economy presented a dual-core structure (Ji'nan and Qingdao). Spatially, the development along the Yellow River and southern Shandong grew slowly. (2) The growth and shrinkage and their evolution trends of municipal districts, counties, and county-level cities were significantly unique; that is, while the county-level units in the total factor growth tended to decrease, all dimensions of their shrinkage and growth tended to be unique. (3) The influencing factors of urban growth and shrinkage were roughly the same. A good social foundation, sound economic development conditions, and strong innovative vitality could promote urban growth, but their impact on different county-level units in different dimensions varied significantly. • Aiming at the urban shrinkage problem, an urban growth-shrinkage model is proposed based on the dimensions of population, economy, and space. • This model can identify the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and trajectories of growth-shrinkage in county-level cities. • Significant differences and trends are found among China's administrative units through empirical research using the urban growth-shrinkage model and Sankey diagram. • This research mode is not only applicable to Shandong Province but can be extended to other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]