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Background: Routine vaccination of infants for protecting against hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and its serious consequences, including hepatocellular cancer (HCC), has been carried out in Shanghai, China, since 1986. We therefore have examined the trend of HBV infection and HCC incidences before and after HBV vaccination over decades to assess the potential influences of the Shanghai HBV vaccination program. Methods: Data on incidences of HBV infection and HCC were collected from the Shanghai Cancer Registry and the Shanghai HBV vaccination follow-up study. Joint-point regression and the Bayesian age-period-cohort statistical analysis methods were used. Results: The incidences of HBV infection dramatically declined from 23.09 and 1.13 per 100,000 for males and females in 2000 to 3.24 (-85.97%) and 0.22 (-80.53%) per 100,000 in 2014, respectively. Sero-epidemiological data from the sampling surveys during 20 years of follow-up showed that less than 1% of people undergoing HBV vaccination have a positive serum HBsAg. Consistently, the annual adjusted standardization rates (ASR) of HCC steadily fell from 33.38 and 11.65 per 100,000 for males and females in 1973 to 17.34 (-49.2%) and 5.60 (-51.9%) per 100,000 in 2014, respectively. The annual percentage change in overall HCC incidences is about -2%. HCC incidences in males at younger age groups (age <50 years old), particularly in those with age <34 groups, showed an accelerating decrease over time, whereas HCC incidences significantly declined in the female population across all age groups except for those under 19 years of age. The results supported that the universal HBV vaccination in newborns is easy to implement with high coverages and is effective for preventing both HBV infection and HCC in populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background In China, caregivers of chronic viral hepatitis patients experience considerable burdens, stress and disruption of their own well-being and social activities. Measurement of the effect on caregivers is an under-researched area. The Family Burden Interview Schedule (FBIS) was primarily devised for the caregivers of schizophrenia patients, and the adverse effect of the disease was similar to the effect of chronic viral hepatitis on family caregivers. In this study, we prospectively evaluated the psychometric properties of FBIS in the field of chronic viral hepatitis and used it to determine the factors affecting the caregiver burden on the family members of chronic viral hepatitis patients in Shanghai, China. Methods A representative sample of patients (n = 1478) and caregivers (n = 1478) was randomly obtained through a multi-stage cluster sampling in Shanghai, China. Reliability and validity tests were used to verify the psychometric properties of the instrument. The two-level random intercept model was applied to determine the factors of the caregiver burden between the household and the community level. Results Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was 0.90 for the overall instrument with statistical significance. Factor analysis suggested a three-factor model for the FBIS and confirmed that the adjusted unidimensional model and the second-order multidimensional model had better fit statistics. The average score of the caregiver burden in Shanghai was 12.62 ± 10.74, and financial burden constituted the major effect. The two-level random intercept model demonstrated that the risk factors were hospitalisation (β 1.69, 95%CI 0.48 to 2.90), elevated serum alanine aminotransferase levels (β 1.05, 95%CI 0.15 to 1.95), HCV infection (β 4.49, 95%CI 1.22 to 7.77), and acceptance of the hepatitis B vaccine (β 2.20, 95%CI 0.56 to 3.85), whereas the protective factors were no consumption of alcohol (β -2.69, 95%CI −5.19 to −0.19), average monthly costs for patients less than or equal to 100 US dollars (β -2.96, 95%CI −5.83 to −0.09), and good health status of family caregivers (β -9.91, 95%CI −12.76 to −7.05). Conclusions FBIS can accurately measure the caregiver burden for chronic hepatitis. Targeting interventions toward the conditions associated with the caregiver burden is of great importance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Sporadic hepatitis E has become an important public health concern in China. Accurate forecasting of the incidence of hepatitis E is needed to better plan future medical needs. Few mathematical models can be used because hepatitis E morbidity data has both linear and nonlinear patterns. We developed a combined mathematical model using an autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and a back propagation neural network (BPNN) to forecast the incidence of hepatitis E. Methods: The morbidity data of hepatitis E in Shanghai from 2000 to 2012 were retrieved from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The ARIMA-BPNN combined model was trained with 144 months of morbidity data from January 2000 to December 2011, validated with 12 months of data January 2012 to December 2012, and then employed to forecast hepatitis E incidence January 2013 to December 2013 in Shanghai. Residual analysis, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and stationary R square methods were used to compare the goodness-of-fit among ARIMA models. The Bayesian regularization back-propagation algorithm was used to train the network. The mean error rate (MER) was used to assess the validity of the combined model. Results: A total of 7,489 hepatitis E cases was reported in Shanghai from 2000 to 2012. Goodness-of-fit (stationary R2=0.531, BIC= -4.768, Ljung-Box Q statistics=15.59, P=0.482) and parameter estimates were used to determine the best-fitting model as ARIMA (0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12. Predicted morbidity values in 2012 from best-fitting ARIMA model and actual morbidity data from 2000 to 2011 were used to further construct the combined model. The MER of the ARIMA model and the ARIMA-BPNN combined model were 0.250 and 0.176, respectively. The forecasted incidence of hepatitis E in 2013 was 0.095 to 0.372 per 100,000 population. There was a seasonal variation with a peak during January-March and a nadir during August-October. Conclusions: Time series analysis suggested a seasonal pattern of hepatitis E morbidity in Shanghai, China. An ARIMA-BPNN combined model was used to fit the linear and nonlinear patterns of time series data, and accurately forecast hepatitis E infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]