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[Display omitted] • Shenzhen's urban ecological security assessment through the PSR model. • Identification of key influencing factors of urban ecological security through factor analysis. • Prediction of future urban ecological security through Monte Carlo. • Scientific theoretical guidance for urban ecological sustainable development. The rapid development of urbanization has triggered the contradiction between population, resources and environment. As a result, urban ecological security has attracted more and more attention, and has gradually become the key to restricting the sustainable development of urban social economy. This work constructs a dynamic urban ecological security assessment and prediction research framework, which is verified by taking Shenzhen, a typical big city in China, as an example. Specifically, urban ecological security is evaluated through the "pressure-state-response" (PSR) model, and its key influencing factors are identified by the coupling factor analysis method. Finally, the future ecological security of the city is predicted and analyzed by Monte Carlo. The results show that the comprehensive safety index of Shenzhen urban ecosystem is increasing, and its key impact indicators are comprehensive development factors and human settlements factors respectively. Additionally, it is anticipated that Shenzhen's urban ecological security level will reach a comfortable level in 2025. To sum up, according to the results of urban ecological assessment and prediction, targeted suggestions on the improvement path of ecological security are put forward. It is suggested that Shenzhen should continue to increase investment in environmental protection, science and technology and other fields to ensure the sustainable development of the urban ecosystem. Using the city of Shenzhen as a case study, this research examines the typical regulatory path for urban ecological security. On the one hand, it can provide a methodological framework for the historical evaluation and future prediction of urban ecological security in China and possibly the entire world. And on the other hand, it can provide a theoretical reference for cities to formulate policies for ecological sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]