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Elderly women exhibit a high risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but no definitive data exist about the possible role of postmenopausal increases in visceral adiposity, the loss of lean body mass, or decreases in the sum of the lean mass of arms and legs (appendicular skeletal muscle mass (ASMM)). This retrospective, longitudinal study investigated whether body composition (bioelectrical impedance analysis) predicted the development of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) or T2D in a cohort of 159 elderly women (age: 71 ± 5 years, follow-up: 94 months) from southern Italy (Clinical Nutrition and Geriatric Units of the "Mater Domini" University Hospital in Catanzaro, Calabria region, and the "P. Giaccone "University Hospital in Palermo, Sicily region). Sarcopenia was defined in a subgroup of 128 women according to the EWGSOP criteria as the presence of low muscle strength (handgrip strength <16 kg) plus low muscle mass (reported as appendicular skeletal muscle mass <15 kg). Participants with a low ASMM had a higher IFG/T2D incidence than those with a normal ASMM (17% vs. 6%, p-adjusted = 0.044); this finding was independent of BMI, fat mass, waist circumference, and habitual fat intake (OR = 3.81, p = 0.034). A higher incidence of IFG/T2D was observed in the subgroup with sarcopenia than those without sarcopenia (33% vs. 7%, p-adjusted = 0.005) independent of BMI and fat mass (OR = 6.75, p = 0.007). In conclusion, this study demonstrates that elderly women with low ASMM had a higher probability of developing IFG/T2D. Further studies are needed to confirm these results in men and in other age groups.