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Significant anomalies in frequency of summer extreme hot days (SEHDs) are broadly observed in the Asian monsoon region (AMR) in the post-ENSO summers. The delayed ENSO impacts are mainly conveyed by provoking the Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) effect that maintains the anomalous anticyclone in the western North Pacific. The related diabatic heating anomaly can trigger the westward-propagating Rossby wave to the Indian subcontinent, which increases the geopotential heights, reduces the cloud cover, and thus increases the seasonal surface temperature and SEHD frequency in the southern AMR. Besides, the reduced atmospheric moisture in the western North Pacific hinders the northward propagation of intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and modulates the occurrence frequency of individual ISO phases, contributing to the significantly increased/decreased SEHDs in eastern China/Hokkaido, Japan, in the post-El Niño summers. The 25-model-ensemble mean of CMIP6 historical runs can reproduce well the observed SEHD anomalies in the southern AMR in the post-ENSO summers mainly due to the realistic simulation of ENSO impacts on the seasonal surface temperature, although a large intermodel spread exists due to different strengths of IPOC effect in each model owing to model biases in the mean state of the eastern tropical Pacific, the ENSO variance, and teleconnection to the Indian Ocean. Furthermore, future projections under the SSP5-8.5 scenario show that the delayed ENSO impacts on the southern AMR remain stable under global warming via a similar mechanism as in the observations and historical runs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding and predicting extreme weather and climate are ultimately important for adaptation and resilience. Here, we assess the prediction skills of frequency of summer extreme hot days (SEHDs) in the Asian monsoon region (AMR) by using the 1981-2014 hindcasts of the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia version 2 (POAMA-2) subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction system. Generally, the good prediction skills of SEHD frequency appear in the southern AMR south of 308N including the Indian subcontinent, Indo-China peninsula, and the Philippines; the anomaly correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted region-mean SEHD anomalies are 0.72, 0.72, 0.70, 0.60, 0.61, and 0.61 at 1-6 months lead, respectively, all statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. The high prediction skills in POAMA-2 are due to its capacity on reproducing the observed delayed ENSO impacts on the large-scale atmospheric circulation, the seasonal surface air temperature, and thus the SEHD frequency in the southern AMR via provoking the Indo--western Pacific Ocean capacitor effect. Since POAMA-2 only provides the prediction at most half a year in advance, we also conduct the hindcasts in the SINTEX-F that can reproduce well the robust ENSO--SEHD relationship and has high prediction skill of ENSO itself. Results show that skillful prediction of the region-mean SEHD frequency can be up to 14 months in advance. These results are complementary to Part I of this study that ENSO can impact the SEHDs in the AMR and provide the sources of predictability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]