1. A mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission in a tertiary hospital and assessment of the effects of different intervention strategies.
- Author
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Yae Jee Baek, Taeyong Lee, Yunsuk Cho, Jong Hoon Hyun, Moo Hyun Kim, Yujin Sohn, Jung Ho Kim, Jin Young Ahn, Su Jin Jeong, Nam Su Ku, Joon-Sup Yeom, Jeehyun Lee, and Jun Yong Choi
- Subjects
COVID-19 ,MEDICAL personnel ,SARS-CoV-2 ,PERSONAL protective equipment ,MATHEMATICAL models - Abstract
배경 Novel coronavirus (named SARS-CoV-2) can spread widely in confined settings including hospitals, cruise ships, prisons, and places of worship. In particular, a healthcare-associated outbreak could become the epicenter of COVID-19. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of different intervention strategies on the hospital outbreak within a tertiary hospital. 방법 A mathematical model was developed for the COVID-19 transmission within a 2500-bed tertiary hospital of South Korea. The study hospital consists of three main categories: ward, outpatient clinic(OPD), and emergency room(ER).The SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model with a compartment of doctor, nurse, patient, and caregiver was constructed. We assumed exposed and infectious people from the patient and caregiver group came into the ER and OPD. The effects of different intervention strategies such as front door screening, quarantine unit for newly admitted patients,early testing of suspected infected people, and personal protective equipment(PPE) for both medical staff and visitors were evaluated. We set worse and best cases based on different parameters and performed sensitivity analysis for the vulnerability of results for each intervention. 결과 The model suggested that the early testing (within eight hours) of infected cases and operating the quarantine ward for newly hospitalized patients are effective measures for decreasing incidence of COVID-19 within a hospital (81.3% and 70% decrease of number of incident cases, respectively, during 60 days). Front door screening for detecting suspected cases had only 42% effectiveness. Screening for prohibiting the admission of COVID-19 patients was more effective than the measures for patients before emergency room or outpatient clinic. Reinforcement of PPE for medical staff does not show an expected improvement of effectiveness. The effectiveness of front door screening and use of a quarantine unit are higher in the best case while the probability of control by testing and protection devices is higher in worst cases. 결론 This model suggests under the assumed conditions, some measures have a great influence on the incidence of COVID-19 within a hospital. Detecting the patients with COVID-19 from the ER and in wards before inflow to a hospital is effective in low transmission settings, and control by PPE is important in high transmission settings. Above all, the implementation of the preventive measures could reduce the size of a hospital outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020