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Aim: Advances in ecological and environmental modelling offer new opportunities for estimating dynamic habitat suitability for highly mobile species and supporting management strategies at relevant spatiotemporal scales. We used an ensemble modelling approach to predict daily, year‐round habitat suitability for a migratory species, the blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus), and demonstrate an application for evaluating the spatiotemporal dynamics of their exposure to ship strike risk. Location: The California Current Ecosystem (CCE) and the Southern California Bight (SCB), USA. Methods: We integrated a long‐term (1994–2008) satellite tracking dataset on 104 blue whales with data‐assimilative ocean model output to assess year‐round habitat suitability. We evaluated the relative utility of ensembling multiple model types compared to using single models, and selected and validated candidate models using multiple cross‐validation metrics and independent observer data. We quantified the spatial and temporal distribution of exposure to ship strike risk within shipping lanes in the SCB. Results: Multi‐model ensembles outperformed single‐model approaches. The final ensemble model had high predictive skill (AUC = 0.95), resulting in daily, year‐round predictions of blue whale habitat suitability in the CCE that accurately captured migratory behaviour. Risk exposure in shipping lanes was highly variable within and among years as a function of environmental conditions (e.g., marine heatwave). Main conclusions: Daily information on three‐dimensional oceanic habitats was used to model the daily distribution of a highly migratory species with high predictive power and indicated that management strategies could benefit by incorporating dynamic environmental information. This approach is readily transferable to other species. Dynamic, high‐resolution species distribution models are valuable tools for assessing risk exposure and targeting management needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graphical abstract Highlights • Temperatures at local scales were best able to predict turtle presence. • Temperatures at intermediate and broad spatial scales had lower efficacy. • Capturing the persistence of temperatures was important to predicting turtle presence. • Warm water events independent to El Nino (e.g. "the Blob") can affect turtle presence. • The indicator successfully balanced fishery opportunity costs and bycatch avoidance. Abstract Extreme climatic events are expected to become more frequent under current conditions of increasing global temperatures and climate variability. A key challenge of fisheries management is understanding and planning for the effect of anomalous oceanic conditions on the distributions of protected species and their interactions with fishing gear. Atypical marine states can cause non-target species to shift outside of their normal distribution patterns, leading to unwanted bycatch events that threaten fisheries sustainability. Environmental indicators can serve as early warning signals that allow for proactive management responses before significant bycatch occurs. Marine heatwaves in the Pacific have caused shifts in the distributions of endangered loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) , increasing overlap with California's Drift Gillnet fishery and thereby the risk of turtle bycatch events. To reduce bycatch, a fishery closure offshore of Southern California – The Loggerhead Conservation Area – Is enacted when an El Niño event has been declared and local sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are warmer than normal. However, this regulation was based on qualitative assessment of bycatch that occurred during past El Niño events, and no explicit threshold for SST anomalies was defined. Additionally, closures enacted under the current regulation rely on structured expert decision-making. Providing a quantitative indicator could help to refine future decisions. We developed and evaluated potential new indicators to guide the Loggerhead Conservation Area closure timing based on thermal indices in three different regions: the equatorial Pacific, regional areas offshore of Southern California, and temperate pelagic areas off the US west coast. Our objectives were to: 1) quantify thermal indicators and their respective thresholds to guide closure timing, and 2) hindcast closure scenarios based on these indicator thresholds to evaluate efficacy in terms of opportunity costs to fishers and ability to avoid turtle interactions. The best indicator in terms of avoiding historical turtle interactions while minimizing opportunity cost to fishers was a six-month average local SST anomaly indicator with closures enacted above a threshold of 0.77 °C. This result can improve upon the current closure guidelines by providing a quantified and spatially-explicit indicator and threshold to supplement the structured decision-making process. Our analysis demonstrates a novel approach to developing fisheries management strategies for species with a paucity of data. Issues with data comprehensiveness are frequently present in fisheries management exercises, and precautionary approaches are needed to allow adherence with legislation while considering the best available science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The common ocean sunfish, Mola mola , occupies a unique position in the eastern Pacific Ocean and the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME) as the world's heaviest, most fecund bony fish, and one of the most abundant gelativores. M. mola frequently occur as bycatch in fisheries worldwide and comprise the greatest portion of the bycatch in California's large-mesh drift gillnet fishery. In this first long-term tagging study of any ocean sunfish species in the eastern Pacific, 15 M. mola (99 cm to 200 cm total length) were tagged in the southern California Bight (SCB) between 2003 and 2010 using 14 satellite pop-off archival tags (PATs) and one Fastloc Mk10 GPS tag. Ten tags provided positional data for a cumulative dataset of 349 tracking days during the months of July through March. Thirteen tags provided temperature and depth data. All M. mola remained within ~ 300 km of the coast, and nearly all exhibited seasonal movement between the SCB and adjacent waters off northern and central Baja California, Mexico. No tagged individuals were tracked north of the SCB. Tag depth data showed diel vertical migration and occasional deep (> 500 m) dives. Data from the Fastloc GPS tag allowed close examination of the relationship between the movements of the largest tagged ocean sunfish (2 m TL) and fine-scale oceanographic features. Near-instantaneous satellite sea surface temperature images showed this individual associated with upwelling fronts along its migration path, which exceeded 800 km and ranged from 6 to 128 km from the coast. Tag depth data showed active use of the water column within the frontal zones. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images demonstrated that surface slicks, which often indicate convergent circulation, coincided with this type of front. Zooplankton tows in the southern region of tracking off central Baja California, Mexico revealed dense populations of salps toward the warm side of these fronts. Satellite tag and ecosystem data suggest that bio-physical interactions in coastal upwelling fronts create favorable foraging habitat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]