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The aluminum minichannel solar collector is a novel technology for solar water heating. Minichannel-based solar collectors have higher thermal efficiency than conventional flat plate collectors and do not suffer from potential loss of vacuum as evacuated-tube collectors. This technology can play a significant role in reducing natural gas consumption that translates into lower greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere. However, the performance of solar collectors depends on the geographical location of the installation due to solar resource availability and weather pattern. The potential reduction in natural gas consumption using aluminum minichannel solar collectors is assessed using solar irradiance, ambient temperature, and wind data obtained from ground weather station and satellite-derived data. A data-driven numerical analysis is performed using a validated solar water heater (SWH) model, population, and natural gas consumption data for the entire state of California to assess the best locations to install these systems. The SWH model is validated based on data collected from an actual SWH system installed at a single-family house in Northridge, California. A K-means clustering method is then applied to select the best regions for installation of this technology. Based on performance, population density, and natural gas consumption, the regions of Southern California and the Central Valley are chosen as having the highest potential for reduction of natural gas consumption. The analysis was performed from weather data obtained based on two full years (2020 and 2022), where the effect of COVID-19 (year 2020) is observed as having higher water tank temperatures and higher solar fractions, which could be associated with lower hot water consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]