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This study evaluates the controversy about the importance duly attributed to domestic and international sources of the end of the Cold War. Our quasi-experimental research supports the hypothesis that Gorbachev's accession to power was largely responsible for the historic improvement in the relationship between the United States and the Soviet Union. The leadership change also enabled the Soviets to pursue unilateral initiatives although conflictual behavior supplanted the effect of such GRIT measures. The coercive diplomacy of the United States in the 1980s seems to have contributed to the moderation of Soviet foreign policy to a lesser ex- tent. The Box-Tiao models focus on the period between 1948 and 1989 and rely on an updated version of the Conflict and Peace Data Bank (COPDAB). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]