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There is continuing interest in the investigation of change in temperature over space and time. For this analysis, we offer statistical tools to illuminate changes temporally, at desired temporal resolution, and spatially, using data generated from suitable space–time models. The proposed tools can be used with the output from any suitable model fitted to any set of spatially referenced time series data. The tools to assess space and time changes include spatial surfaces of probabilities and spatial extents for events defined by exceeding a threshold. The spatial surfaces capture the spatial variation in the probability or risk of an exceedance event, while the spatial extents capture the expected proportion of incidence of an event for a region of interest. This approach is used analyse the changes in daily maximum temperature in an inland Mediterranean region (NE of Spain) in the period 1956–2015. The area is very heterogeneous in orography and climate, including the central Ebro valley and part of the Pyrenees. We use a collection of daily temperature series obtained from simulation under a Bayesian daily temperature model fitted to 18 stations in that area. The results for the summer period show that, although there is an increasing risk in all the events used to quantify the effects of climate change, it is not spatially homogeneous, with the largest increase arising in the centre of the Ebro valley and the Eastern Pyrenees area. The risk of an increase in the average daily maximum temperature from 1966–1975 to 2006–2015 higher than 1°C is higher than 0.5 over all of the region, and close to 1 in the previous areas. The extent of daily maximum temperature higher than the reference mean has increased 3.5% per decade. The mean of the extent indicates that 95% of the area under study has suffered a positive increment of the average temperature, and almost 70% an increment higher than 1°C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence of global warming induced from the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere suggests more frequent warm days and heat waves. The concept of an extreme heat event (EHE), defined locally based on exceedance of a suitable local threshold, enables us to capture the notion of a period of persistent extremely high temperatures. Modeling for extreme heat events is customarily implemented using time series of temperatures collected at a set of locations. Since spatial dependence is anticipated in the occurrence of EHE's, a joint model for the time series, incorporating spatial dependence is needed. Recent work by Schliep et al. (J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc 184(3):1070–1092, 2021) develops a space-time model based on a point-referenced collection of temperature time series that enables the prediction of both the incidence and characteristics of EHE's occurring at any location in a study region. The contribution here is to introduce a formal definition of the notion of the spatial extent of an extreme heat event and then to employ output from the Schliep et al. (J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc 184(3):1070–1092, 2021) modeling work to illustrate the notion. For a specified region and a given day, the definition takes the form of a block average of indicator functions over the region. Our risk assessment examines extents for the Comunidad Autónoma de Aragón in northeastern Spain. We calculate daily, seasonal and decadal averages of the extents for two subregions in this comunidad. We generalize our definition to capture extents of persistence of extreme heat and make comparisons across decades to reveal evidence of increasing extent over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Novel statistical tools used to analyze the occurrence of temperature records. • An overall significant increase in the number of records is observed compared to a stationary climate. • The most affected seasons are summer and winter, with 86% and 75% affected stations. • Deviation started in the early 1970s in winter and late 1980s in summer. • The Levante coast is the most affected and the Cantabrian coast the least. This work analyses the effects of global warming in the upper extremes of daily temperature series over Spain. This objective implies specific analysis, since time evolution of mean temperature is not always parallel to evolution of the extremes. We propose the use of several record tests to study the behavior of the extreme and record-breaking events in different temperature signals, at different time and spatial scales. The underlying idea of the tests is to compare the occurrence of the extreme events in the observed series and the occurrence in a stationary climate. Given that under global warming, an increasing trend, or an increasing variability, can be expected, the alternative is that the probability of the extremes is higher than in a stationary climate. Some of the tests, based on a permutation approach, can be applied to sets of correlated series and this allows the analysis of short periods of time and regional analysis, where series are measured in close days and/or locations. Using these tests, we evaluate and compare the effects of climate change in temperature extreme and record-breaking events using 36 series of daily maximum temperature from 1960 to 2021, all over peninsular Spain. We also compare the behavior in different Spanish regions, in different periods of the year, and in different signals such as the annual maximum temperature. Significant evidences of the effect of an increasing trend in the occurrence of upper extremes are found in most of Spain. The effects are heterogeneous within the year, being autumn the season where the effects are weaker and summer where they are stronger. Concerning the spatial variability, the Mediterranean and the North Atlantic region are the areas where the effects are more and less clear, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Off-stream reservoirs produce changes in water regime to diversion catchments. • Off-stream reservoirs in saline soils enrich the ion concentration in dammed waters. • Emergency drawdown at off-stream brackish reservoirs can have meaningful impacts. • Extension and duration of the flood and physicochemical changes are meaning impacts. • Conductivity exceedance probability curves allow comparison and impact assessment. Reservoirs are the main component of regulation of water resources in basins. Off-stream reservoirs are a particular solution where water is stored in a secondary catchment other than the basin that produces the water resource. This under certain conditions can modify the water regime of the downstream secondary catchment. Although uncommon, one of the reservoir management operations is emergency emptying in the event of possible incidents that could put proper reservoir management at risk. One of the environmental requirements of the drawdown operation of reservoirs is the study of environmental impacts in the event of a complete discharging event from a full reservoir state, given the huge amount of water to be emptied and the duration of the operation, which can last for days. Logically, the impact will be greater when it comes to diversion basins. It is imperative to evaluate the physical impact of prolonged flooding in downstream areas, especially in areas of special ecosystem sensitivity. Additionally, on certain occasions, a physicochemical impact can be produced on flooded areas when the chemical composition of the discharged water differs from the usual concentrations. Exceedance probability curves for conductivity allow identification and assessment of potential impacts of off-stream reservoirs. This article presents a practical case assessment of the impact of an off-stream reservoir located in evaporitic soils with a high content of salts increasing the chemical concentration of stored water that is distributed in different compositional strata. The emptying is carried out on a wetland with important ecological value, and the impact of extension and duration of the flood on the wetland are studied, as well as exposure to the presence of water with different chemical concentrations over the time the incident lasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document develops a methodology that evaluates the impact on the environment of the rivers produced by the creation of civil infrastructures. The methodology is based on the two-dimensional hydrodynamic calculation by using shallow water equations both in the conditions prior to the creation of the infrastructure, and in the new conditions after the infrastructure is created. Subsequently, several characteristics, such as water depth and velocity, among others, are compared between the initial and final conditions, and a two-dimensional zoning of the changes observed is obtained. The methodology herein presented is useful to verify the impact that the implantation of different infrastructures around the river currents could produce. In addition, it is also relevant for carrying out a study taking into account different infrastructure options related to river currents, as well as for selecting the most suitable one. By using the methodology presented, changes on the regime of the currents caused by the infrastructures can be deduced, including a qualitative and quantitative zoning of the changes, with a special emphasis on some characteristics, such as depth and velocity. The methodology is applied in a case study for the creation of a road bridge over the Jalon River in Spain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]