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The dynamics of airborne ascospores and disease progress of red leaf blotch (RLB) of almond, caused by Polystigma amygdalinum, and their correlations with weather variables were studied from 2019 to 2021 in two almond orchards located in Lleida, NE Spain. Airborne ascospores were detected and quantified by real‐time qPCR using species‐specific primers for P. amygdalinum. Ascospores were detected mainly from April to June, with a high variability between the yearly cumulative concentrations. Positive significant correlations were found between the weekly proportion of airborne ascospores and the number of wet and mild days—either combined or separated— accumulated rainfall, number of rainy days, accumulated low temperatures on wet days, and mean and maximum relative humidity. In contrast, several thermal variables (maximum temperature, VPD, and number of warm days) were negatively correlated with ascospore catches. Positive significant correlations were found between the cumulative proportion of ascospores and RLB incidence and severity. Weekly variations in RLB incidence and severity showed significant positive correlations with the number of warm days while negative with the number of mild days. Severity was also positively correlated with several thermal variables (mean, maximum, and minimum temperature, and VPD), and negatively correlated with the number of cold days and wet and mild days. Stronger correlations were generally found with ascospore catches or disease progress when using concurrent weekly weather data. Gompertz, monomolecular, and logistic growth models were evaluated to describe RLB disease progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Outbreak response to quarantine pathogens and pests in the European Union (EU) is regulated by the EU Plant Health Law, but the performance of outbreak management plans in terms of their effectiveness and efficiency has been quantified only to a limited extent. As a case study, the disease dynamics of almond leaf scorch, caused by Xylella fastidiosa , in the affected area of Alicante, Spain, were approximated using an individual-based spatial epidemiological model. The emergence of this outbreak was dated based on phylogenetic studies, and official surveys were used to delimit the current extent of the disease. Different survey strategies and disease control measures were compared to determine their effectiveness and efficiency for outbreak management in relation to a baseline scenario without interventions. One-step and two-step survey approaches were compared with different confidence levels, buffer zone sizes, and eradication radii, including those set by the EU legislation for X. fastidiosa . The effect of disease control interventions was also considered by decreasing the transmission rate in the buffer zone. All outbreak management plans reduced the number of infected trees (effectiveness), but large differences were observed in the number of susceptible trees not eradicated (efficiency). The two-step survey approach, high confidence level, and the reduction in the transmission rate increased the efficiency. Only the outbreak management plans with the two-step survey approach removed infected trees completely, but they required greater survey efforts. Although control measures reduced disease spread, surveillance was the key factor in the effectiveness and efficiency of the outbreak management plans. [Formula: see text] Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY 4.0 International license., Competing Interests: The author(s) declare no conflict of interest.