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Human-induced urban growth and sprawl have implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that may not be included in conventional GHG accounting methods. Improved understanding of this issue requires use of interactive, spatial-explicit social–ecological systems modeling. This paper develops a comprehensive approach to modeling GHG emissions from urban developments, considering Stockholm County, Sweden as a case study. GHG projections to 2040 with a social–ecological system model yield overall greater emissions than simple extrapolations in official climate action planning. The most pronounced difference in emissions (39% higher) from energy use single-residence buildings resulting from urban sprawl. And this difference is not accounted for in the simple extrapolations. Scenario results indicate that a zoning policy, restricting urban development in certain areas, can mitigate 72% of the total emission effects of the model-projected urban sprawl. The study outcomes include a decision support interface for communicating results and policy implications with policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous cities in the world have to handle and support increasing populations, with questions remaining concerning good planning strategies for their growth and development. Among these questions, access to nature for urban residents has been the subject of increased scrutiny in recent years. We here propose and apply a generally applicable new approach to quantitatively investigate the role of close access to natural or nature‐based green–blue areas for the well‐being of urban populations. A key novel aspect of this approach is to use income level as a measure of people's ability to choose their nearby living environment such that it provides them with the highest affordable level of well‐being. Based on this measure, we concretely investigate possible trends in local green–blue area access with increasing local income level in the case‐study example of the Stockholm Metropolitan region in Sweden. For this regional case, we find clear relationships between income level (and related degree of nationality homogeneity) and share of natural/nature‐based green–blue areas and man‐made grey areas within walksheds of different population segments. The results point at the importance of maintaining and restoring nearby natural and nature‐based green–blue areas as key solutions for increased well‐being of urban populations and call for further testing and comparative investigations of local‐scale associations between socio‐economic descriptors and physical environment in other parts of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Phosphorous (P) transport and retention is investigated here based on data from a 3-year field study of five drainage ditch reaches at Färingsö, west of Stockholm, Sweden. Results show that P retention rate in the drainage reaches greatly depends on and decreases with increasing water flow and watercourse depth. This supports previous simulation indications and implies that changing drainage reach depth and flow conditions may considerably change P loading to downstream waters. In deeper drainage reaches with tile-drained fields in their catchment areas, which are common in Nordic lowlands, particulate P amounted to about 80% of total P, with about half of this fraction being bio-available. As much as 70% of that particulate P was retained in a reach section that was flow- and depth-restricted by heavy vegetation. Retained P in sediments was found to be mostly bound to Fe and/or Al. Some of that PAl–Fe fraction may after dissolution become more permanently retained by re-binding to Ca. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We present a comparative socio-ecological modeling approach to identify possible improvement opportunities for Climate Action Plans (CAPs), focusing on two cities, Chicago and Stockholm. The aim is to provide a tool for capturing and addressing deep-rooted behavioral and institutional preferences that may aggravate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in cities. Socio-economic activities, land use change, and future urban forms are considered and forecast to the year 2040 on 30m × 30m spatial grids. GHG emissions associated with these urban development aspects are calculated and compared between the cities. Innovative policy instruments for growth control and zoning (GCZ) are simulated and tested through the socio-ecological model, to determine their effectiveness when added to other interventions included in the CAPs. Our findings show that behavioral/institutional preference for sprawl, its low-density form, and resultant carbon sink losses are main factors driving current and future residential and transportation GHG emissions in Chicago. GCZ policies are shown to counteract and mitigate around 20% of these factors in the form of future GHG emissions. • Comparative socio-ecological models to forecast urban GHG emissions developed. • Urban development factors omitted in existing CAPs are accounted. • Behavioral preference for sprawl and low-density form are drivers of GHG emissions. • Growth control and zoning can counteract and mitigate around 20% of these factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ongoing urban expansion may degrade natural resources, ecosystems, and the services they provide to human societies, e.g., through land use and water changes and feedbacks. In order to control and minimize such negative impacts of urbanization, best practices for sustainable urban development must be identified, supported, and reinforced. To accomplish this, assessment methods and tools need to consider the couplings and feedbacks between social and ecological systems, as the basis for improving the planning and management of urban development. Collaborative efforts by academics, urban planners, and other relevant actors are also essential in this context. This will require relevant methods and tools for testing and projecting scenarios of coupled social-ecological system (CSES) behavior, changes, and feedbacks, in support of sustainable development of growing cities. This paper presents a CSES modeling approach that can provide such support, by coupling socio-economically driven land use changes and associated hydrological changes. The paper exemplifies and tests the applicability of this approach for a concrete case study with relevant data availability, the Tyresån catchment in Stockholm County, Sweden. Results show that model integration in the approach can reveal impacts of urbanization on hydrological and water resource, and the implications and feedbacks for urban societies and ecosystems. The CSES approach introduces new model challenges, but holds promise for improved model support towards sustainable urban development. • We present a tool for planning support by coupling social-ecological systems. • The tool helps identify and understand change drivers and feedbacks. • The tool was successfully tested in an urban-hydrological system in Sweden. • Model coupling can support better decisions for sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study addresses and conceptualizes the possible dependence of ecosystem services on prevailing air and/or water flow processes and conditions, and particularly on the trajectories and associated spatial reach of these flows in carrying services from supply to demand areas in the landscape. The present conceptualization considers and accounts for such flow-dependence in terms of potential and actually realized service supply and demand, which may generally differ and must therefore be distinguished due to and accounting for the prevailing conditions of service carrier flows. We here concretize and quantify such flow-dependence for a specific landscape case (the Stockholm region, Sweden) and for two examples of regulating ecosystem services: local climate regulation and storm water regulation. For these service and landscape examples, we identify, quantify and map key areas of potential and realized service supply and demand, based for the former (potential) on prevailing relatively static types of landscape conditions (such as land-cover/use, soil type and demographics), and for the latter (realized) on relevant carrier air and water flows. These first-order quantification examples constitute first steps towards further development of generally needed such flow-dependence assessments for various types of ecosystem services in different landscapes over the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]