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Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of first trimester non-invasive fetal RHD screening for targeted antenatal versus no routine antenatal anti-D prophylaxis (RAADP) or versus non-targeted RAADP.Design: Model based on a population-based cohort study.Setting: The Swedish health service.Population: Intervention subjects in the underlying cohort study were RhD-negative pregnant women receiving first trimester fetal RHD screening followed by targeted anti-D in 2010-2011 (n = 6723). Historical comparators were RhD-negative women who delivered in 2008-2009 when standard care did not include RAADP (n = 7099).Methods: Healthcare costs for the three strategies were included for the first and subsequent pregnancies. For the comparison with non-targeted RAADP, the immunisation rate was based on the observed rate for targeted therapy and adjusted downwards by removing the influence of false negatives.Main Outcome Measure: Additional cost per RhD immunisation averted.Results: Compared with RAADP, targeted prophylaxis was associated with fewer immunisations (0.19 versus 0.46% per pregnancy) and lower costs (cost-savings of €32 per RhD-negative woman). The savings were from lower costs during pregnancy and delivery, and lower costs of future pregnancies through fewer immunisations. Non-targeted anti-D was estimated to result in 0.06% fewer immunisations and an additional €16 in cost-savings per mother, compared with targeted anti-D.Conclusion: Based on effect data from a population-based cohort study, targeted prophylaxis was associated with lower immunisation risk and costs versus no RAADP. Based on effect data from theoretical calculations, non-targeted RAADP was predicted to result in lower costs and immunisation risk compared with targeted prophylaxis.Tweetable Abstract: Fetal RHD screening and targeted prophylaxis resulted in lower immunisation risk and costs compared with no RAADP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disability pensions incur huge societal costs in many countries. In Sweden, the three greatest drivers of such productivity losses are musculo-skeletal, circulatory and psychiatric disorders, all closely associated with weight status. We identified 16 studies investigating the body mass index (BMI)–disability pension relation. In cross-sectional studies, a significantly greater proportion of obese compared with normal weight subjects were disability pensioners. In longitudinal studies, a J-shaped relation with BMI was generally found in both men and women of various ages. Different definitions of obesity status complicated interpretation, as several studies mixed the underweight and normal weight, which appear to have different disability pension risks. In middle-aged men, relative risks were elevated for circulatory causes only for the overweight and obese, while associations for mental disorders were similar in the underweight and overweight but much higher in the obese. In both sexes, monotonic increases and decreases were seen for circulatory and respiratory causes respectively. In intervention studies, reduced disability pension incidence and increased gainful employment were reported after surgery. In summary, BMI was significantly associated with disability pension, but the direction of causality may vary with underlying cause. Interventions had positive productivity effects in the morbidly obese, but whether this holds for the overweight remains to be proven. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To investigate the incidence of violent crime conviction among Swedish military veterans after deployment to Afghanistan versus non-deployed comparators. The main outcome was first conviction of a violent crime, retrieved from the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention Register until December 31, 2013., Methods: This was a cohort study of military veterans identified through personnel registers regarding deployment to Afghanistan between 2002 and 2013 (n = 5894). To each military veteran, up to five non-deployed comparators identified via the Military Service Conscription Register were matched by age, sex, conscription year, cognitive ability, psychological assessment, self-reported mental health, body mass index, antidepressants/anxiolytics prescriptions and self-harm (fully matched comparators; n = 28 895). Multivariable adjustment was made for substance abuse and previous health care visits with psychiatric diagnoses. An additional comparator group matched only for age, sex and conscription year was also used (age-sex-matched comparators; n = 29 410)., Results: During 21 898 person-years of follow-up (median = 3.6 years) there were 26 events among deployed military veterans compared with 98 in non-deployed fully matched comparators [12 vs 9 per 10 000 person-years, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.36; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.88-2.10]. Among non-deployed age-sex-matched comparators there were 170 violent crime convictions (16 per 10 000 person-years; aHR 0.85; 95% CI 0.56-1.29). Factors associated with greater risk of violent crime convictions were younger age, lower scores on cognitive ability tests and psychological assessment, and convictions preceding deployment., Conclusion: The violent crime conviction rate after returning from military deployment to Afghanistan was not different compared with non-deployed comparators in individuals without history of violent crime convictions., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.)

Background: Cannabis is the most frequently used illicit drug globally. Despite increasing evidence that cannabis use is associated with adverse health effects, the knowledge on preventative strategies is still limited. This study stemmed from a systematic review of effective prevention in which school-based programmes were identified as promising. The primary objective was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of Project ALERT (Adolescent, Learning, Experiences, Resistance, and Training), compared with ordinary ATOD (Alcohol, Tobacco, and Other Drug) education, among Swedish students in the eighth grade of compulsory school., Methods: The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from the societal perspective with quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) as an outcome (willingness-to-pay threshold €50,000) and follow-up periods from 1 year to a lifetime, considering a discounting rate of 3%, and with costs inflated to 2013 levels. A Markov model was constructed on the basis of the 'states' of single use, regular use, daily use and use of other illicit drugs, which were associated with 'complications' of psychosis, schizophrenia, traffic accidents, depression and amotivational syndrome. Health and cost consequences were linked to both states and complications., Results: The programme was cost saving on the basis of evidence from the USA (ratio 1:1.1), and was cost effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio €22,384 per QALY) after reasonable adjustment for the Swedish context and with 20 years of follow-up. When the target group was restricted to boys who were neither studying nor working/doing work experience, the programme was cost effective after 9 years and cost saving (ratio 1:3.2) after 20 years., Conclusion: School-based prevention such as Project ALERT has the potential to be cost effective and to be cost saving if implemented in deprived areas. In the light of the shifting landscape regarding legalization of cannabis, it seems rational to continue the health economic analysis of prevention initiated here.

Background: Trends in obesity have been reported to level off in several Western countries. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in body mass index (BMI) and prevalence of obesity between 2002 and 2010 in Stockholm County, Sweden., Methods: Three cross-sectional questionnaires from the Stockholm Health Surveys were used for this study. A total of 31 182, 34 707 and 30 767 men and women aged between 18 and 64 years completed the questionnaire regarding sociodemographic factors, health parameters, physical activity, smoking habits and anthropometry in 2002, 2006 and 2010, respectively (response rate: 62.5, 61.3 and 55.6%, respectively). Linear regression was used to investigate changes in mean BMI. Relative risk regression models were used to investigate changes in prevalence of obesity, defined as BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2). All analyses were stratified on age and further adjusted for smoking, education and socioeconomic position., Results: Between 2002 and 2006, a stabilization was found in BMI and prevalence of obesity in both men and women. But from 2006 to 2010, BMI and prevalence of obesity had increased, also among the young. In 2010, the prevalence of obesity was 12.2% among men and 10.3% among women., Conclusion: After a period of stabilization in 2002-06, BMI and prevalence of obesity are increasing in Stockholm County, Sweden.

Background: Obesity is a well-known risk factor for sick leave, disability pension and premature death. Obesity is therefore presumably related to increased productivity losses., Objective: The aim of this study was to estimate the lifetime productivity losses to society associated with obesity status., Methods: This study was based on a 38-year follow-up of a nationwide cohort of 45 920 Swedish men performing mandatory military conscription tests at age 18.7 ± 0.5 years. Body mass index (BMI) based on measured height and weight at the time of military conscription tests was used to define underweight (<18.5 kg/m(2)), normal weight (18.5-24.9 kg/m(2)), overweight (25.0-29.9 kg/m(2)) and obesity (≥30.0 kg/m(2)). Data on sick leave, disability pension and premature death were retrieved from national registers. The calculations were adjusted for socioeconomic index, smoking and muscular strength., Results: Using the human capital approach, the lifetime productivity losses were calculated as 55.6 (95% CI 50.7, 62.0) × €1000 and 55.6 (95% CI 50.9, 61.4) × €1000 for underweight and normal weight, respectively, and 72.6 (95% CI 66.3, 80.7) × €1000 and 95.4 (95% CI 89.0, 102.9) × €1000 for overweight and obesity, respectively. If using the friction cost method instead, the estimated productivity losses were reduced by about 80%., Conclusion: Obesity is associated with almost twice as high productivity losses to society as for normal weight over a lifetime. These costs are important to include in health economic analyses of obesity intervention programmes in order to ensure an effective allocation of resources from a societal perspective.

Background: Sick-leave is an important source of productivity losses to society. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between body mass index (BMI) status in young adulthood and future sick-leave., Methods: A nation-wide cohort of 43,989 Swedish men (18.7 ± 0.5 years) performing military conscription tests in 1969-70 were followed between 1986 and 2005 regarding sick-leave. BMI was used to define underweight (<18.5), normal weight (18.5-24.9), overweight (25.0-29.9) and obesity (≥ 30.0). Relative risks of sick-leave were estimated with Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for smoking, socio-economic index and muscular strength, using normal weight as the reference., Results: During 803,684 person-years of follow-up, 488,570 sick-leave episodes were recorded. On average, one short-term (≤ 7 days) episode occurred every eight person-months, one intermediate-term (8-30 days) every five person-years and one long-term (>30 days) episode every 15 person-years. Overweight was associated with 20% and obesity with >30% risk elevation for episodes ranging from 8 to 30 days [hazard ratio (HR) 1.20; 95% CI 1.15-1.24 and HR 1.35; 95% CI 1.24-1.47, respectively] as well as for episodes >30 days (HR 1.19; 95% CI 1.15-1.23 and HR 1.34; 95% CI 1.24-1.47, respectively) compared to normal weight. Obesity was also associated with an increased risk of sick-leave episodes ≤ 7 days (HR 1.13; 95% CI 1.09-1.16), but the corresponding risk increase for overweight was very small (HR 1.02; 95% CI 1.00-1.03). Underweight showed increased risk only for short-term episodes (HR 1.05; 95% CI 1.04-1.07)., Discussion: Overweight and obesity are associated with increased risk for sick-leave compared to normal weight, especially for sick-leave episodes of longer duration.

Aim: To investigate the cost-effectiveness of palivizumab vs. no prophylaxis for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in preterm infants in Sweden., Methods: A probabilistic Markov model was populated using a nationwide register linkage and data from the literature. Cost-effectiveness was investigated from a societal perspective over a lifetime for infants born at <29 weeks of gestation. Palivizumab was modelled using assumptions for its direct effect on RSV hospitalization risk and an indirect effect (via decreased RSV hospitalization) on subsequent asthma and mortality during the epidemic. Costs and effects were discounted by 3%., Results: In the base case, prophylaxis resulted in an additional 0.102 quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) at a cost of 20,000 SEK relative to no prophylaxis (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] 195,000 SEK/QALY). The probability of prophylaxis being cost-effective was 99% at a willingness-to-pay of 500,000 SEK/QALY. Assumptions about a causal association between RSV infection and subsequent asthma had a moderate impact, while exclusion of the indirect prophylaxis effect on mortality increased the ICER to 492,000 SEK/QALY. When excluding both of these, prophylaxis was not cost-effective., Conclusion: Based on a willingness-to-pay of 500,000 SEK/QALY, palivizumab was found to be cost-effective compared with no prophylaxis for infants born at <29 weeks if severe RSV infection was assumed to increase subsequent asthma or mortality risk., (© 2011 The Author(s)/Acta Paediatrica © 2011 Foundation Acta Paediatrica.)

In many countries obesity has increased dramatically during the last decades, while there has been a parallel decrease in smoking. The objective of the present study was to estimate the net effect on premature mortality of these trends. A simulation model was developed to estimate the expected number of deaths between ages 19-56 years for cohorts of young men (n = 50,000), depending on inputs of obesity and smoking prevalence. The model was populated with nationwide data of Swedish men performing mandatory military conscription tests between 1969 and 2005. Risk equations for all cause mortality with smoking and obesity status as predictors were developed based on the 1969-1970 conscription cohort (n = 45,920; 2,897 deaths, median follow-up 38 years). It was found that between 1969 and 2005, the prevalence of smoking decreased from 58.6 to 23.2%, while overweight increased from 5.7 to 15.6% and obesity from 0.8 to 5.5%. As a result of these trends, a 14% (CI₉₅(%) 6, 21%) reduction of premature deaths between ages 19 and 56 years was forecasted for men aged 19 year in 2004-2005 compared to men aged 19 years in 1969-1970 (2,679 vs. 3,116 deaths). However, one-third of the survival benefit from reduced smoking during the period was offset due to the parallel increase in obesity. This study shows that despite large increases in overweight and obesity, a continued decline in premature deaths among Swedish males is expected due to reduced smoking during the last four decades.

Background: Smoking and obesity are two of the most important risk factors for chronic disease today. Their combined effect on the risk of disability pension is not known., Methods: A nationwide cohort of 45 920 Swedish men (18.7 + or - 0.5 years) were followed for 38 years. The body mass index (BMI), based on measured height and weight, was used to define underweight (<18.5), normal weight (18.5-24.9), overweight (25.0-29.9) and obesity (> or = 30.0). The hazard ratios (HRs) associated with BMI and smoking status at baseline for receiving disability pension were adjusted for socio-economic index (SEI), muscular strength, geographic region and place of residence., Results: During 1.6 million person-years, 4631 disability pensions and 2897 deaths occurred. After adjustment, overweight (HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.19-1.51) and obesity (HR 1.55, 1.18-2.05) were associated with an increased risk of disability pension, independent of smoking, whereas underweight (18.5; HR 1.07, 0.97-1.17) was not compared with normal weight. Similarly, smoking 1-10 (HR 1.37, 1.27-1.49) or >10 cigarettes per day (HR 2.01, 1.86-2.17) showed independent risk increases versus non-smoking. Although obese individuals smoking >10 daily cigarettes were at greatly increased risk (HR 2.98, 1.98-4.47), no evidence of interaction between the two risk factors could be detected., Conclusions: Both increased adiposity and smoking are strong and independent predictors of disability pension, but they do not act synergistically.