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Background and Aims: Chronic hepatitis B infection (defined as sustained detection of hepatitis B virus [HBV] surface antigen [HBsAg] protein in serum) is a leading cause of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related deaths. A situation analysis carried out by the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health estimated the HBsAg prevalence in Switzerland to be 0.53% (95% CI: 0.32-0.89%) in 2015 (~44,000 cases). A lower prevalence of chronic HBV in the younger generation and the adoption of universal coverage in the first year of life are expected to decrease the burden of HBV; however, a number of people in key populations (including migrants) remain undiagnosed and untreated, and infected individuals remain at risk of progressing to cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and death. Our primary objective was to examine the current and estimate the future disease burden of HBV in Switzerland and the impact of migration. The secondary objective was to estimate the impact of changing future treatment numbers., Methods: A modelling study was performed using an existing, validated model (PRoGReSs Model) applied to the Swiss context. Model inputs were selected through a literature search and expert consensus. Population data from the Federal Statistical Office were used alongside prevalence data from the Polaris Observatory to estimate the number of HBV infections among people born abroad. The PRoGReSs Model was populated with and calibrated to the available data and what-if scenarios were developed to explore the impact of intervention on the future burden of disease. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs)., Results: In 2020, there were an estimated 50,100 (95% UI: 47,500-55,000) HBsAg+ cases among people born abroad. Among people born in Switzerland, there were approximately 62,700 (UI: 58,900-68,400) total HBV infections (0.72% [UI: 0.68-0.79%] prevalence). Prevalence among infants and children under the age of 5 were both <0.1%. By 2030, prevalence of HBV is expected to decrease, although morbidity and mortality will increase. Increasing diagnosis (90%) and treatment (80% of those eligible) to meet the global health sector strategy on viral hepatitis programme targets could prevent 120 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma and 120 liver-related deaths., Conclusions: Thanks to the historical vaccination programmes and the continued rollout of universal 3-dose coverage in the first year of life, Switzerland is expected to exceed the global health sector strategy targets for the reduction of incidence. While overall prevalence is decreasing, the current diagnosis and treatment levels remain below global health sector strategy targets.

Background: Switzerland has made strides towards hepatitis C virus elimination, but as of 2019, elimination was not guaranteed. However, political interest in viral hepatitis has been increasing. We sought to develop a better understanding of Switzerland's progress towards HCV elimination and the profile of remaining HCV-RNA-positive patients., Methods: A previously described Markov model was updated with recent diagnosis and treatment data and run to generate new forecasts for HCV disease burden. Two scenarios were developed to evaluate HCV morbidity and mortality under the status quo and a scenario that achieves the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy Elimination targets. Next, an analysis was conducted to identify population segments bearing a high burden of disease, where future elimination efforts could be directed., Results: At the beginning of 2020, an estimated 32 100 viremic infections remained in Switzerland (0.37% viremic prevalence). Adult (≥18 years of age) permanent residents born abroad represented the largest subpopulation, accounting for 56% of HCV infections. Thirteen countries accounted for ≥60% of viremic infections amongst permanent residents born abroad, with most people currently residing in Zurich, Vaud, Geneva, Bern, Aargau and Ticino. Amongst Swiss-born HCV-RNA-positive persons, two-thirds had a history of IDU, corresponding to 33% of total infections., Conclusions: In Switzerland, extra efforts for diagnosis and linkage to care are warranted in foreign-born populations and people with a history of drug use. Population-level measures (eg increasing the number of providers, increase screening) can identify patients who may have otherwise fallen through the gaps or avoided care because of stigma., (© 2021 The Authors. Liver International published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background & Aims: Elimination of HCV by 2030, as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO), is attainable with the availability of highly efficacious therapies. This study reports progress made in the timing of HCV elimination in 45 high-income countries between 2017 and 2019., Methods: Disease progression models of HCV infection for each country were updated with latest data on chronic HCV prevalence, and annual diagnosis and treatment levels, assumed to remain constant in the future. Modelled outcomes were analysed to determine the year in which each country would meet the WHO 2030 elimination targets., Results: Of the 45 countries studied, 11 (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom) are on track to meet WHO's elimination targets by 2030; five (Austria, Malta, Netherlands, New Zealand, and South Korea) by 2040; and two (Saudi Arabia and Taiwan) by 2050. The remaining 27 countries are not expected to achieve elimination before 2050. Compared to progress in 2017, South Korea is no longer on track to eliminate HCV by 2030, three (Canada, Germany, and Sweden) are now on track, and most countries (30) saw no change., Conclusions: Assuming high-income countries will maintain current levels of diagnosis and treatment, only 24% are on track to eliminate HCV by 2030, and 60% are off track by at least 20 years. If current levels of diagnosis and treatment continue falling, achieving WHO's 2030 targets will be more challenging. With less than ten years remaining, screening and treatment expansion is crucial to meet WHO's HCV elimination targets., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background & Aims: Introduction of highly efficacious pan-genotypic therapies for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has made the elimination of the disease an attainable goal. This study assessed progress made in 45 high-income countries towards meeting the World Health Organization's targets for HCV elimination by 2030., Methods: A Markov model developed to forecast annual HCV-infected population was populated with demographic and epidemiological inputs, with historical incidence calibrated to reported prevalence of chronic HCV for each country. Future incidence was assumed to be a linear function of overall prevalence (or prevalence of minimal fibrosis in countries with treatment restrictions). 2017 levels of diagnosis and treatment were assumed constant in the future. The analysis estimated the year countries would meet HCV elimination targets for 80% reduction in incidence, 65% reduction in liver-related deaths, 90% diagnosis coverage and 80% treatment among the treatment-eligible population., Results: Of the 45 countries analyzed, nine (Australia, France, Iceland, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland and the United Kingdom) are on track towards meeting the HCV elimination targets by 2030. While Austria, Germany and Malta could also reach the targets with expanded screening efforts, 30 countries are not projected to eliminate HCV before 2050. Incidence was the most difficult target to achieve, followed by liver-related deaths., Conclusions: Even with introduction of curative therapies, 80% of high-income countries are not on track to meet HCV elimination targets by 2030, and 67% are off track by at least 20 years. Immediate action to improve HCV screening and treatment is needed globally to make HCV elimination attainable., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

As a result of epidemic levels of obesity and diabetes mellitus, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) will contribute to increases in the liver-related disease burden in Switzerland. A Markov model was built to quantify fibrosis progression among the NAFLD and NASH populations, and predict disease burden up to 2030. Long-term trending of NAFLD prevalence was based on changes in the prevalence of adult obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections. The prevalence of NAFLD increased up to 2030 in tandem with projected increases in adult obesity. By 2030, there were an estimated 2,234,000 (1,918,000&ndash;2,553,000) NAFLD cases, or 24.3% (20.9&ndash;27.8%) of the total Swiss population (all ages). Increases in NASH cases were relatively greater than NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase by approximately 40% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths to increase from 580 deaths in 2018 to 820 deaths in 2030. Continued growth in obesity, in combination with an aging population, will result in increasing number of cases of advanced liver disease and mortality related to NAFLD and NASH. Slowing the growth in obesity and metabolic syndrome, along with future potential therapies, are required to reduce liver disease burden. &nbsp.

Background and Aims: A previous analysis of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related healthcare costs in Switzerland found that the annual healthcare costs of untreated HCV infection (excluding antiviral treatment) could increase by more than 25 million Swiss francs (CHF) between 2013 and 2030. Since that publication, highly efficacious direct-acting antiviral therapies (DAAs) have become available, making HCV elimination a possibility. This analysis quantifies the clinical and economic burden of HCV intervention strategies over the next 15 years., Methods: A model was developed to estimate the future clinical and economic burden of HCV infection if patients are diagnosed and treated according to a historical paradigm (historical base case), or at higher levels without treatment reimbursement restrictions (Scenario 1). The infected population was tracked by age- and sex-defined cohorts, and associated direct medical costs (healthcare, screening, diagnostics and treatment) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated. Direct cost savings and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated to assess the economic impact of each scenario. Additionally, we generated a net-zero cost scenario (Scenario 2), assuming the same treatment paradigm as Scenario 1 but at the treatment price that would break even by 2031., Results: In the historical base case, annual direct costs are projected to decrease from 150 million (95% UI: 132&ndash;170 million) CHF in 2016 to 90 million (95% UI: 65&ndash;111 million) CHF in 2031. Cumulative direct costs are projected to reach 1.7 billion (95% UI: 1.2&ndash;2.0 billion) CHF by 2031. In Scenario 1, annual direct costs first increased to 175 million CHF by 2018, before declining to 44 million CHF by 2031. Cumulative direct costs in this scenario are projected to reach 1.8 billion CHF by 2031. For Scenario 2, the treatment price needed to achieve break-even by 2031 considering only direct costs would be 27,900 CHF per patient. By 2031, Scenarios 1 and 2 would gain 58,300 QALYs. In both scenarios, the ICER drops below the cost-effectiveness threshold of 78,000 CHF in 2018. Over the 15-year span, the ICER was determined to be 2,200 CHF for Scenario 1., Conclusions: Increasing the number of patients treated and treating all fibrosis stages is cost-effective compared to the historical base case and could achieve break-even by 2031 at a price of 27,900 CHF.

Background and Aims: Direct-acting antiviral agents have revolutionised hepatitis C treatment. In 2014, the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy was developed to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and the associated liver-related morbidity and mortality by 2030. Though numerous national studies and assessments have identified a relatively low prevalence rate of 0.7% in the country, little has been done to identify the epidemiology of HCV on the regional, or micro, level. This study aimed to identify scenarios to achieve the objectives of Swiss Hepatitis Strategy by 2030 in eastern, western and northern regions in Switzerland., Methods: Three Excel-based Markov disease burden models, based on hospital- and region-specific data, were developed to forecast the current and future prevalence of HCV infection by fibrosis stage and liver disease stage to 2030. Two scenarios were developed to evaluate the disease burden in St Gallen, Geneva and Zurich: a Base 2016 scenario, representing the current standard of care in each canton, and a second, potential scenario to achieve the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy goals., Results: In 2015, the estimated viraemic prevalence in St Gallen was 0.5% (0.5&ndash;0.6%) corresponding to 2800 (2600&ndash;3100) cases. In Geneva and Zurich, the estimated prevalence was slightly higher, with an estimated 0.7% (0.6&ndash;0.7%) viraemic prevalence, or 3300 (3000&ndash;3600) cases in Geneva and 0.7% (0.7&ndash;0.8%) viremic prevalence, or 10,800 (9900&ndash;11,900) infectionsin Zurich. In order to achieve the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy goals of a 30% reduction in new infections, total viraemic infections, liver transplants, and hepatocellular carcinoma cases by 2020 and a 90% reduction by 2030, all regions will need to increase the annual number of treated and diagnosed patients up to 2030. In St Gallen, an up-front investment to treat 430 patients annually by 2020 would be necessary, to achieve the 2020 goals. After 2020, treatment could be reduced to ~150 patients annually until 2030. The number of patients diagnosed, however, would need to be sustained at 130 annually after 2020. In Geneva, 235 patients need to be treated, with 140 diagnosed annually between 2019 and 2030 to achieve both 2020 and 2030 goals. In Zurich, 850 patients will need to be treated annually in 2019 and 2020 and the number of diagnosed will need to expand to 350 individuals annually by 2022., Conclusions: Intensified screening for chronic hepatitis C and increased access to direct-acting antivirals are necessary to meet the Swiss hepatitis strategy elimination goals over the next 12 years.

Catalyzed by the concerns over the growing public health and economic burden of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Switzerland, a diverse group of experts and patient representatives came together in 2014 to develop the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy, setting targets for the elimination of viral hepatitis in Switzerland by 2030. Previous studies have reported the estimated number of chronic HCV infections and forecasted burden of disease given different intervention strategies. However, given new prevalence data by the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health, which decreased total infections by about half, an updated analysis is warranted. We aimed to provide an updated viremic prevalence estimate for Switzerland and evaluate the impact on forecasted liver related morbidity and mortality of an 'inaction' scenario and intervention scenarios to achieve the Global Health Sector Strategy for Viral Hepatitis and Swiss Hepatitis Strategy goals by 2030. A Markov disease-progression model was used to calculate the present and future burden of HCV infection by disease stage according to these different strategies. In 2017, there were an estimated 36,800 (95% UI: 26,900-39,200) viremic infections in Switzerland. Given the current standard of care, total viremic infections are expected to decline by 45%, while cases of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related deaths will decrease by 20%. If treatment and diagnosis efforts were to cease in 2018, late stage HCV-related morbidity and mortality would increase by 90-100% by 2030. Increasing treatment and diagnosis to achieve the Global Health Sector Strategy or Swiss Hepatitis Strategy goals by 2030, will reduce the number of chronic infections to less than 13,000 and 4,000, respectively. Although the HCV epidemic is declining in Switzerland, efforts to expand diagnosis and treatment are needed to achieve elimination by 2030., Competing Interests: This work was supported by Gilead Sciences. Gilead Sciences had no input on the content, the study design, data selection, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials. As the corresponding author, I declare, on behalf of all my co-authors that there no additional competing interests.

Background: Chronic hepatitis C virus infection is a major cause of liver disease in Switzerland and carries a significant cost burden. Currently, only conservative strategies are in place to mitigate the burden of hepatitis C in Switzerland. This study expands on previously described modeling efforts to explore the impact of: no treatment, and treatment to reduce HCC and mortality. Furthermore, the costs associated with untreated HCV were modeled., Methods: Hepatitis C disease progression and mortality were modeled. Baseline historical assumptions were collected from the literature and expert interviews and strategies were developed to show the impact of different levels of intervention (improved drug cure rates, treatment and diagnosis) until 2030., Results: Under the historical standard of care, the number of advanced stage cases was projected to increase until 2030, at which point the annual economic burden of untreated viremic infections was projected to reach €96.8 (95% Uncertainty Interval: €36 - €232) million. Scenarios to reduce HCV liver-related mortality by 90% by 2030 required treatment of 4,190 ≥F2 or 3,200 ≥F3 patients annually by 2018 using antivirals with a 95% efficacy rate. Delaying the implementation of these scenarios by 2 or 5 years reduced the impact on mortality to 75% and 57%, respectively., Conclusions: With today's treatment efficacy and uptake rates, hepatitis C disease burden is expected to increase through 2030. A substantial reduction in disease burden can be achieved by means of both higher efficacy drugs and increased treatment uptake. However, these efforts cannot be undertaken without a simultaneous effort to diagnose more infections.