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Introduction: Thermal grids are key to decarbonizing heating and cooling. However, their development is a complex socio-technical process. This study aims to (1) understand the thermal grid ecosystem’s development under changing political, economic and cultural frame conditions, (2) elicit actors’ perception of options for future development, and (3) identify concrete problem situations for the future development of thermal grids and describe how to address them. Methods: We draw on 18 semi-structured interviews with decision-makers in utilities, municipal administrations, planning and engineering companies and intermediary organizations. Results: With increased strategic importance of thermal grids, the ecosystem has been in a phase of rapid growth and professionalization in the last 10–15 years. This is reflected in a rapid increase in the number of grids, but also in capability and capacity building and greater quality standards. This transformation has been supported by a resource pool (e.g., knowledge base, capacities and capabilities, networks or decision-support tools), built partly through the value network’s activities and partly through purposeful orchestration by associations, authorities, utilities and other actors. While policy developments, energy price fluctuations and changes in customer perceptions spurred demand, thermal grid development is limited by supply-side constraints, especially a skill shortage. Four interrelated problem situations were identified: (1) Municipalities lack the resources to manage the implementation of their energy strategies. (2) The modernization of thermal grids and integration of low-carbon heat sources entails high transaction costs. (3) The implementation of thermal grids is subject to delays and quality risks, with consequences for the timely achievement of decarbonization goals. (4) Customers face uncertainty on available options, as well as on the systemic impacts of their decisions. Discussion: Based on current practices, suggestions by the interviewees, as well as a comparison with the international literature, we identify four development areas to address these problem situations: (1) Empower and support municipalities. (2) Manage the scarcity of qualified workforce. (3) Leverage digital technology for the planning, realization and operation of thermal grids. (4) Pilot technological and organizational innovations together. This complements the set of previously suggested measures to support the development of thermal grids, which focused strongly on technical and regulatory aspects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present FORHYCS (FORests and HYdrology under Climate Change in Switzerland), a distributed ecohydrological model to assess the impact of climate change on water resources and forest dynamics. FORHYCS is based on the coupling of the hydrological model PREVAH and the forest landscape model TreeMig. In a coupled simulation, both original models are executed simultaneously and exchange information through shared variables. The simulated canopy structure is summarized by the leaf area index (LAI), which affects local water balance calculations. On the other hand, an annual drought index is obtained from daily simulated potential and actual transpiration. This drought index affects tree growth and mortality, as well as a species-specific tree height limitation. The effective rooting depth is simulated as a function of climate, soil, and simulated above-ground vegetation structure. Other interface variables include stomatal resistance and leaf phenology. Case study simulations with the model were performed in the Navizence catchment in the Swiss Central Alps, with a sharp elevational gradient and climatic conditions ranging from dry inner-alpine to high alpine. In a first experiment, the model was run for 500 years with different configurations. The results were compared against observations of vegetation properties from national forest inventories, remotely sensed LAI, and high-resolution canopy height maps from stereo aerial images. Two new metrics are proposed for a quantitative comparison of observed and simulated canopy structure. In a second experiment, the model was run for 130 years under climate change scenarios using both idealized temperature and precipitation change and meteorological forcing from downscaled GCM-RCM model chains. The first experiment showed that model configuration greatly influences simulated vegetation structure. In particular, simulations where height limitation was dependent on environmental stress showed a much better fit to canopy height observations. Spatial patterns of simulated LAI were more realistic than for uncoupled simulations of the forest landscape model, although some model deficiencies are still evident. Under idealized climate change scenarios, the effect of the coupling varied regionally, with the greatest effects on simulated streamflow (up to 60 mm yr -1 difference with respect to a simulation with static vegetation parameters) seen at the valley bottom and in regions currently above the treeline. This case study shows the importance of coupling hydrology and vegetation dynamics to simulate the impact of climate change on ecosystems. Nevertheless, it also highlights some challenges of ecohydrological modeling, such as the need to realistically simulate the plant response to increased CO2 concentrations and process uncertainty regarding future land cover changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present FORHYCS (FORests and HYdrology under Climate Change in Switzerland), a distributed ecohydrological model to assess the impact of climate change on water resources and forest dynamics. FORHYCS is based on the coupling of the hydrological model PREVAH and the forest landscape model TreeMig. In a coupled simulation, both original models are executed simultaneously and exchange information through shared variables. The simulated canopy structure is summarized by the leaf area index (LAI), which affects local water balance calculations. On the other hand, an annual drought index is obtained from daily simulated potential and actual transpiration. This drought index affects tree growth and mortality, as well as a species-specific tree height limitation. The effective rooting depth is simulated as a function of climate, soil and simulated above-ground vegetation structure. Other interface variables include stomatal resistance and leaf phenology. Case study simulations with the model were performed in the Navizence catchment in the Central Swiss Alps, with a sharp elevational gradient and climatic conditions ranging from dry inneralpine to high alpine. In a first experiment, the model was run for 500 years with different configurations. The results were compared against observations of vegetation properties from national forest inventories, remotely sensed LAI and high-resolution canopy height maps from stereo aerial images. Two new metrics are proposed for a quantitative comparison of observed and simulated canopy structure. In a second experiment, the model was run for 130 years under idealized climate change scenarios: daily temperature was increased by up to 6 K, and precipitation altered by 10 %, with a gradual change over 35 years. The first experiment showed that model configuration greatly influences simulated vegetation structure. In particular, simulations where height limitation was dependent on environmental stress showed a much better fit to canopy height observations. Spatial patterns of simulated LAI were more realistic than for uncoupled simulations of the forest landscape model, although some model deficiencies are still evident. Under idealized climate change scenarios, the effect of the coupling varied regionally, with the greatest effects on simulated streamflow (up to 40 mm y-1 difference with respect to a simulation with static vegetation parameters) seen at the valley bottom and in regions currently above the treeline. This case study shows the importance of coupling hydrology and vegetation dynamics to simulate the impact of climate change on ecosystems. Nevertheless, it also highlights some challenges of ecohydrological modelling, such as the need to realistically simulate plant response to increased CO2 concentrations, and process uncertainty regarding future land cover changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industry is responsible for around 1/3 of annual global greenhouse gas emissions. To limit global warming, many nations, including Switzerland, have committed to a (near) net-zero emission industry target by 2050. While the policy relevance of an industry transition increases, specific knowledge on the key barriers and drivers towards industrial decarbonisation is still largely missing. With the objective to contribute to the decision basis for effective policy development and based on 17 semi-structured interviews with firms from the Swiss industry, we investigate the key factors that hinder or accelerate a timely adoption of decarbonisation technologies. We relate the identified barriers and drivers from our interviews to an adapted St. Gallen Management Model (SGMM), a well-known, system-oriented management framework. Our study shows that the SGMM categories technology & economy (e.g. high technology costs), state & policymakers (e.g. emission price) and finance & controlling (e.g. pay-back periods) are most frequently mentioned by the interviewees and that the firms' decarbonisation decisions are influenced by both the firm itself as well as external stakeholders, such as the government, consultants, customers, NGOs or suppliers. Therefore, we conclude that the firm itself and each of these stakeholders must play a key part in fostering industry decarbonisation. We suggest future research to (1) quantitatively assess the importance of the identified barriers and drivers and (2) investigate how policy actions of the relevant stakeholders could be effectively orchestrated and incentivised. • 17 firm interviews on barriers and drivers to industry decarbonisation. • Identification of technological uncertainty and long pay back as key barriers. • Risk-return and positive side-effects of decarbonisation measures are key drivers. • Policy measures other than carbon prices are required for a successful transition. • Orchestration of stakeholders is key for future action towards decarbonisation. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]