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Background: Several cross-sectional and short-term studies suggest that patient-reported outcomes (PROs) may be useful to help predict COPD exacerbations, but evidence from long-term prospective cohort studies is lacking. Our aim was to assess if PROs add to the prediction of exacerbations.Methods: Four hundred eight primary care patients with COPD participated in the multicenter prospective International Collaborative Effort on Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease: Exacerbation Risk Index Cohorts (ICE COLD ERIC) study. PROs included the Chronic Respiratory Disease Questionnaire, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the Feeling Thermometer, and the LASA Physical Activity Questionnaire (LAPAQ). Exacerbations during 4½ years were adjudicated by experts. We used negative binomial regression to assess the association between PROs and exacerbations while considering age, sex, airflow obstruction, previous exacerbations, and smoking status. We then assessed if adding PROs improved the predictive properties of widely used indices.Results: Lower levels of dyspnea, fatigue, and anxiety and higher levels of physical activity were associated with a lower risk of exacerbations (adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.90; 95% CI, 0.84-0.97; P = .01; IRR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.86-1.00; P = .04; IRR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00-1.06; P = .03; IRR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.87-0.99; P = .04, respectively). The best prediction was when LAPAQ was added to the BMI, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and previous exacerbations (BODEx) index (area under the curve Δ+0.02, from 0.72-0.74). However, this increase was not clinically relevant (net reclassification improvement, 0.03; 95% CI, -0.03 to 0.08).Conclusions: Some domains of PROs are independently associated with exacerbations but do not lead to clearly improved prediction when added to established indices to predict exacerbations. There is still much room for improvement in the prediction of exacerbations.Trial Registry: ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT00706602. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 1-min sit-to-stand (1-min STS) test and handgrip strength test have been proposed as simple tests of functional exercise performance in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. We assessed the long-term (5-year) predictive performance of the 1-min sit-to-stand and handgrip strength tests for mortality, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and exacerbations in COPD patients. In 409 primary care patients, we found the 1-min STS test to be strongly associated with long-term morality (hazard ratio per 3 more repetitions: 0.81, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.86) and moderately associated with long-term HRQoL. Neither test was associated with exacerbations. Our results suggest that the 1-min STS test may be useful for assessing the health status and long-term prognosis of COPD patients. This study was registered at http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ (NCT00706602, 25 June 2008). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although many studies examined determinants of physical activity in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), most were cross-sectional and focused on single determinants only. Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine how COPD patients' physical activity changes over time and to identify the determinants of physical activity using multivariable and longitudinal methods. Methods: In a prospective cohort study, 409 primary care patients with COPD in the Netherlands and Switzerland were followed for up to 5 years. Physical activity was assessed at baseline and every 6 months using the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam Physical Activity Questionnaire (LAPAQ) adapted to a 0- to 23-point scale. We studied the associations between determinants at baseline and patients' long-term physical activity levels using linear mixed models. Results: Unadjusted analysis showed an overall gradual decline in physical activity (0.22 points of the LAPAQ scale every 6 months, 95% CI: 0.17-0.28; p < 0.001). In multivariable analyses, baseline determinants that were independently associated (p ⩽ 0.05) with lower long-term physical activity levels included (starting from coefficients with the smallest p value) lower exercise capacity, older age, working, more smoking pack-years, more fatigued, male sex, lower educational levels, previously not in fitness programs, more depressed, lower lung function, lower overall health status, and more prescription drug use. Conclusions: We found that physical activity of COPD patients may decline more than reported in the healthy elderly. Longitudinal analysis identified independent determinants of physical activity, which allows the identification of patients having low physical activity levels and who may benefit from physical activity interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pivotal objective of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) self-management programmes is behaviour change to avoid moderate and severe exacerbations and improve health related quality of life.In a prospectively planned, controlled study, COPD patients who participated in the "Living well with COPD" (LWWCOPD) self-management intervention were compared with usual care patients from the primary care COPD Cohort ICE COLD ERIC, who did not receive self-management intervention (NCT00706602) The primary outcome was behaviour change and disease-specific health related quality of life after 1 year. Secondary end-points included exacerbation rates. We calculated mixed linear, zero-inflated negative binomial and logistic regression models and used propensity scores to counteract confounding.467 patients, 71 from the LWWCOPD and 396 from the usual care cohort, were included. The differences between intervention and control were 0.54 (95% CI 0.13-0.94) on the Chronic Respiratory Questionnaire domain "mastery", 0.55 (95% CI 0.11-0.99) on "fatigue", 0.54 (0.14-0.93) on "emotional function" and 0.64 (95% CI 0.14-1.14) on "dyspnoea". The intervention considerably reduced the risk of moderate and severe exacerbations (incidence rate ratio 0.36, 95% CI 0.25-0.52).Self-management coaching in primary care improves health-related quality of life and lowers exacerbation rates and health care use., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: Disclosures can be found alongside this article at erj.ersjournals.com, (Copyright ©ERS 2018.)

Background: Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care., Objectives: Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts., Methods: Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality., Results: Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71)., Conclusions: The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings.

Exercise tests are important to characterise chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients and predict their prognosis, but are often not available outside of rehabilitation or research settings. Our aim was to assess the predictive performance of the sit-to-stand and handgrip strength tests. The prospective cohort study in Dutch and Swiss primary care settings included a broad spectrum of patients (n=409) with Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stages II to IV. To assess the association of the tests with outcomes, we used Cox proportional hazards (mortality), negative binomial (centrally adjudicated exacerbations) and mixed linear regression models (longitudinal health-related quality of life) while adjusting for age, sex and severity of disease. The sit-to-stand test was strongly (adjusted hazard ratio per five more repetitions of 0.58, 95% CI 0.40-0.85; p=0.004) and the handgrip strength test moderately strongly (0.84, 95% CI 0.72-1.00; p=0.04) associated with mortality. Both tests were also significantly associated with health-related quality of life but not with exacerbations. The sit-to-stand test alone was a stronger predictor of 2-year mortality (area under curve 0.78) than body mass index (0.52), forced expiratory volume in 1 s (0.61), dyspnoea (0.63) and handgrip strength (0.62). The sit-to-stand test may close an important gap in the evaluation of exercise capacity and prognosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients across practice settings.

Background: The BODE index (including body-mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, and exercise capacity) was an important contribution to the prognostic assessment of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, no study has assessed whether the risk of mortality predicted by the BODE index matches the observed mortality in different populations. We assessed the calibration of the BODE index, updated it to improve its calibration, and developed and validated a simplified index for use in primary-care settings., Methods: We included 232 patients from the Swiss Barmelweid cohort with longstanding and severe COPD and 342 patients from the Spanish Phenotype and Course of COPD cohort study who had had their first hospital admission due to moderate-to-severe COPD. In both cohorts we compared the observed 3-year risk of all-cause mortality with the risk predicted by the BODE index. We then updated the BODE index and developed a simplified ADO index (including age, dyspnoea, and airflow obstruction) from the Swiss cohort, and validated both in the Spanish cohort., Findings: Calibration of the BODE index was poor, with relative underprediction of 3-year risk of mortality by 36% in the Swiss cohort (median predicted risk 21.7% [IQR 12.7-31.7] vs 34.1% observed risk; p=0.013) and relative overprediction by 39% in the Spanish cohort (16.7% [12.7-31.7] vs 12.0%; p=0.035). The 3-year risk of mortality predicted by both the updated BODE (median 10.7% [8.1-13.8]) and ADO indices (11.8% [9.1-14.3]) matched the observed mortality in the Spanish cohort well (p=0.99 and p=0.98, respectively)., Interpretation: Both the updated BODE and ADO indices could lend support to the prognostic assessment of patients with COPD in specialised and primary-care settings. Such assessment enhances the targeting of treatments to individual patients., Funding: Swiss National Science Foundation; Klinik Barmelweid; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria Ministry of Health, Spain; Agència d'Avaluació de Tecnologia i Recerca Mèdiques, Catalonia Government; Spanish Society of Pneumology and Thoracic Surgery; Catalan Foundation of Pneumology; Red RESPIRA; Red RCESP; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria; Fundació La Marató de TV3; Novartis Farmacèutica, Spain.

Objective: To assess the extent to which different forms of summarising diagnostic test information influence general practitioners' ability to estimate disease probabilities., Design: Controlled questionnaire study., Setting: Three Swiss conferences in continuous medical education., Participants: 263 general practitioners., Intervention: Questionnaire with multiple choice questions about terms of test accuracy and a clinical vignette with the results of a diagnostic test described in three different ways (test result only, test result plus test sensitivity and specificity, test result plus the positive likelihood ratio presented in plain language)., Main Outcome Measures: Doctors' knowledge and application of terms of test accuracy and estimation of disease probability in the clinical vignette., Results: The correct definitions for sensitivity and predictive value were chosen by 76% and 61% of the doctors respectively, but only 22% chose the correct answer for the post-test probability of a positive screening test. In the clinical vignette doctors given the test result only overestimated its diagnostic value (median attributed likelihood ratio (aLR)=9.0, against 2.54 reported in the literature). Providing the scan's sensitivity and specificity reduced the overestimation (median aLR=6.0) but to a lesser extent than simple wording of the likelihood ratio (median aLR=3.0)., Conclusion: Most general practitioners recognised the correct definitions for sensitivity and positive predictive value but did not apply them correctly. Conveying test accuracy information in simple, non-technical language improved their ability to estimate disease probabilities accurately.