Search

Earthquake early warning systems assess the size of an earthquake based on initial ground motion and provide warnings before the arrival of large waves. We employ the iterative regression to simultaneously estimate the station correlations and the corresponding linear relations for magnitude. We report the standard error reductions of the magnitude estimation based on the initial peak P-wave acceleration (${P_a}$ P a ), velocity (${P_v}$ P v ), and displacement (${P_d}$ P d ) as $14.52\% $ 14.52 % , $7.63\% $ 7.63 % , and $7.58\% $ 7.58 % , respectively. Factor analysis of the stationary correction reveals its correlation with several factors. This study shows that station correction can help to improve the precision of magnitude estimation in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early warning systems can estimate the possible-shaking intensity of the earthquake based on the initial P-waves on-site. Researchers have used the following two indicators: the initial peak P-wave displacement ( P d ) and the ground motion characteristic period ( τ c ). In this study, we re-examine the performance of the two indicators by employing ground motion data from the P-Alert low-cost network in Taiwan. We have found that the signal-to-noise ratio of displacement ( S N R d ) is effective for data selection. In addition, we have observed the irregular behavior of τ c in the P-Alert dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies in the earthquake magnitude‐frequency relation (b‐value) found that the b‐value can decrease with time before large earthquakes in the source area. Such a decrease even coincided with a burst of foreshocks immediately before the earthquakes implying a preslip migrating toward the nucleation zone. We systematically survey the b‐value variations in space and time in the source area of 17 earthquakes with magnitudes greater than ML 6.0 in Taiwan. We relocated the earthquakes released by the Central Weather Administration of Taiwan since 2012 as timing can provide a sufficiently low completeness magnitude (MC) of 1.5. We carefully determine the spatiotemporal search criteria on seismicity in the source area of all targeted earthquakes. We surveyed the temporal b‐value systematically using moving time windows with a given number of earthquake events with the magnitudes greater than MC. We found the b‐value decreased clearly for 2 days before the 2018 ML 6.3 Hualien earthquake, coinciding with a burst of ML 5.8 earthquake and its aftershocks nearby as foreshocks. The foreshocks migrated updip toward the hypocenter of the 2018 ML 6.3 Hualien earthquake and revealed a second decrease in the b‐value 10 hours before it occurred. The b‐value precursor primarily comes from a rapid reduction of small earthquakes in the foreshocks and agrees with recent key findings of preslip. However, there is no strong correlation between the b‐value precursor and coseismic slip. Apart from this, the b‐values did not change significantly in most cases of earthquakes in Taiwan before and after they occurred. Plain Language Summary: Direct evidence for the precursor of a large earthquake is rare and difficult to be quantified accurately. Earthquake magnitude‐frequency relation (b‐value) is a classic observation implying stress accumulation on a seismogenic fault. Scientists found that the b‐value can decrease within a few days before an impending large earthquake in the source area. Taiwan is one of the regions undergoing frequent M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes and can map the b‐value in high resolution based on the relocated earthquakes. This study systematically surveyed the b‐value in the source area of seventeen ML ≥ 6.0 earthquakes in Taiwan, probing into b‐value precursor in the 8‐year time series. We found that the b‐value had a robust decrease 2 days before the 2018 ML 6.3 Hualien earthquake, coinciding with the initiation of foreshocks nearby and at a downdip of the hypocenter of the 2018 ML 6.3 Hualien earthquake. The foreshocks showed clear evidence of precursor as they migrated updip toward the hypocenter with a second decrease in the b‐value 10 hours before the earthquake occurred. We found no evidence of a b‐value precursor in most of the targeted earthquakes that agrees with the knowledge of precursor as happening episodically and unexpectedly. Key Points: We found a b‐value precursor that coincides with foreshocks for 2 days before the 2018 ML 6.3 Hualien earthquake in the source areaThe b‐value precursor correlates with foreshock distribution in the source area and is likely uncorrelated to the high coseismic slipThere is no significant change in the b‐value before M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes in Taiwan in a majority of the cases that we analyzed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building an earthquake early warning (EEW) network requires the installation of seismic instruments around the seismogenic zone. Using low-cost sensors to build a seismic network for EEW and to generate shakemaps is a cost-effective way in the field of seismology. The National Taiwan University (NTU) network employing 762 P-Alert low-cost sensors based on micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) technology is operational for almost the last 10 years in Taiwan. This instrumentation is capable of recording the strong ground motions of up to ± 2 g and is dense enough to record the near-field ground motion. The NTU system has shown its importance during various earthquakes that caused damage in Taiwan. Although the system is capable of acting as a regional as well as an onsite warning system, it is particularly useful for onsite warning. Using real-time seismic signals, each P-Alert device provided a 2–8 s warning time for the near-source earthquake regions situated in the blind zone of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) regional EEW system, during the 2016 M w 6.4 Meinong and 2018 M w 6.4 Hualien earthquakes. The shakemaps plotted by the P-Alert dense network help to assess the damage pattern and act as key features in the risk mitigation process. These shakemaps are delivered to the intended users, including the disaster mitigation authorities, for possible relief purposes. Currently, the P-Alert network can provide peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), spectral acceleration ( S a ) at different periods, and CWB intensity shakemaps. Using shakemaps, it is found that PGV is a better indicator of damage detection than PGA. Encouraged by the performance of the P-Alert network, more instruments are installed in Asia-Pacific countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geodetic evidence for slow slip recurrence changed by stress perturbations was rare, especially from afterslip following a nearby large earthquake. The first observed slow slip events in the southernmost Ryukyu subduction had occurred in 2005, 2009, and 2015 following the nearby 2002 March 31 Mw 7.1 Hualien offshore earthquake. To investigate whether the Mw 7.1 earthquake had influenced the occurrence times of the slow slip, we calculated the coseismic slip distribution and afterslip distribution using the surface displacements from onshore Global Navigation Satellite System observations. The stress perturbation on the slow-slip regions caused by the coseismic slip was quantified using the Coulomb failure criteria. We also examined the aftershock distribution and the evolution with time to clarify the stress perturbations from the afterslip offshore. Our results show that the primary afterslip distribution may have overlapped the 2009 and 2015 slow-slip patch at the downdip of the earthquake. The coseismic stress perturbation may have influenced the SSEs area directly by a Coulomb stress increase of probably 0.10 MPa. However, the 2005 SSE patch in the updip depths had only a little coseismic slip and afterslip with the Coulomb stress increase of approximately 0.06 MPa. We find that most of the aftershocks had occurred in the 2009 and 2015 slow-slip region that evolved into a typical aftershock sequence at least 2.5 years after the earthquake. The surface geodetic displacements reveal that the afterslip may have lasted longer than 4.5 years after the earthquake. The evidence for the afterslip proves that the 2009 and 2015 slow-slip patch was influenced by the afterslip directly for years. We suggest that the ongoing afterslip may have modulated the coseismic stress perturbation. It may explain the delay of the 2009 slow slip occurrence compared with the recurrence interval between the 2009 and 2015 slow slip events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The earthquake early warning (EEW) system in Taiwan is the outcome of rigorous research work carried out at various levels after the occurrence of the 1986 Hualien earthquake that caused destruction. After more than 25 years of development, three different EEW systems exist in Taiwan. Currently, the nation wide regional EEW system is operated by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), whereas, a hybrid (regional & onsite) system based on Micro-Electro-Mechanical System sensors is run by National Taiwan University (NTU). The third EEW (onsite system) is run by the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering (NCREE). Both CWB and NTU systems are capable of reporting the EEW warnings within 20 seconds of earthquake occurrence. The CWB system is incharge of providing earthquake alerts in Taiwan via text message through mobile phone, TV, and directly broadcasting system to schools and is providing earthquake alarms to the general public since 2016. During recently damaging earthquakes in Taiwan, the NTU system provided 2–8 seconds onsite warning (lead time) in the blind zone around the epicenter. The NTU system also can generate near real-time shake maps for rapid response purposes. The NCREE system consists of about 98 stations and can provide several seconds lead time in the area near the epicenter. The NCREE system also can receive CWB regional EEW messages for warning the regions away from the epicenter. Individually every system has its advantage, however, the hybrid approach will be one of the future systems for real operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies suggested that transient and long‐term stress changes caused by Earth's surface processes (e.g., extreme weather events, annual variations on groundwater storages) can affect earthquake activities in the subsurface. However, these studies may be limited by the completeness of standard earthquake catalogs, especially during or right after extreme weather events. Here we apply the template matching method to build a more complete earthquake catalog in Taiwan spanning seven months before and 12 months after 2009 typhoon Morakot, which brought the highest rainfall in southern Taiwan in the past 60 years and triggered numerous landslides. We then use the enhanced catalog to investigate possible influences of typhoon‐driven Earth's surface processes (atmospheric pressure, precipitation, and erosion) on local seismicity. We find that the seismicity rate of a 40‐day earthquake sequence in northeastern Taiwan was reduced significantly right after the passage of typhoon Morakot's eye center. In the typhoon‐triggered landslide zone in southern Taiwan, we find a slight increase in background seismicity rate in the next year after Morakot, matching the results of a recent study. However, we do not observe a clear change in the Gutenberg‐Richter b‐value in this zone, which is different from the recent study. Station outages during and right after Morakot prevents us from better understanding short‐term precipitation effect on local seismicity. Overall, except for a reduction in seismicity rate near the typhoon's low‐pressure eye center in northeastern Taiwan, we do not observe other clear seismicity changes that can be attributed to surface changes induced by typhoon Morakot. Plain Language Summary: It is important to study cascading nature hazards (typhoons/hurricanes, landslides, earthquakes, etc.) because of their threats to human life and property. 2009 typhoon Morakot is the deadliest typhoon in Taiwan, which brought the highest rainfall in the past 60 years and led to numerous landslides. To investigate the possible influences of Morakot on subsurface earthquake activities, we build a more complete earthquake catalog for Taiwan spanning seven months before and 12 months after 2009 typhoon Morakot. This enhanced earthquake catalog includes many small earthquakes that cannot be felt by local residents in their ordinary life and were not in the standard earthquake catalog. In northeastern Taiwan, our results show that a 40‐day earthquake sequence was apparently shut down right after the passage of typhoon Morakot. If this observation is not a pure coincidence, it may suggest that the low‐pressure system of typhoon Morakot was capable of modulating the subsurface seismicity behavior. In southern Taiwan, the heavy‐rainfall and landslide region, we do not observe clear seismicity changes that can be attributed to surface changes induced by typhoon Morakot. Key Points: We use a template matching method to rebuild an earthquake catalog for Taiwan 7 months before and 12 months after 2009 typhoon MorakotThe seismicity rate of a 40‐day earthquake sequence in northeastern Taiwan was reduced significantly after the passage of MorakotThe seismicity rate increased slightly but without clear b‐value change after Morakot in typhoon‐driven landslide zone in southern Taiwan [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ambient noise interferometry is a powerful technique to continuously measuring crustal seismic velocity changes (dv/v) and studying crustal behaviors over time. However, the interpretation of such dv/v variations is not straightforward since multiple causes including internal (tectonic/magmatic) processes of the crust and external (environmental) factors could both affect dv/v simultaneously. To differentiate the interplay between the internal and external processes in dv/v variations is an essential step toward accurate crustal monitoring. In this study, we apply the single‐station cross‐component (SC) method to 15 selected stations from the Broadband Array in Taiwan for Seismology (BATS) to investigate the temporal evolution of crustal seismic velocities across Taiwan. We process the continuous BATS seismic recording from 1998 to 2019, construct the daily SC correlation functions, and compute dv/v values by the stretching technique in a frequency band of 0.1–0.9 Hz. We observe both strong annual dv/v variations and co‐seismic velocity drops associated with regional moderate‐to‐large earthquakes. Systematic spectral and time‐series analyses with the weather data suggest that the rainfall‐induced pore‐pressure change plays a predominant role in driving the dv/v seasonality, reflecting a diffusion process from meteoric water into shallow crust. The effects of other factors are relatively local and secondary. We also demonstrate how understanding and correcting rainfall effects could critically improve the resolution and accuracy of internal crustal damage related to earthquakes. Plain Language Summary: The measured wave speeds from small ground motions such as ocean, wind, traffic, etc help us to understand changes in subterranean regions. The causes of the medium changes are multifold such as the fault zone damage by earthquakes (internal) or groundwater rise by rainfall (external). To discriminate the causes it is important to use weak ground motions for monitoring internal medium changes. For this purpose, we collect and study 20 years of ground motion data from 15 seismic stations distributed across Taiwan. We measure the propagation wave speed of weak ground motions and find earthquake‐related changes and strong seasonal changes at most stations. By analyzing and comparing wave speed changes with weather data (e.g., rainfall, temperature, air pressure, and wind speed), we find that rainfall varying groundwater level and the subterranean pore pressure best fit the seasonal wave speed changes in both space and time. After removing this rainfall‐related signals, we can estimate more precisely the extent of earthquake‐related underground damages that may not be obvious or completely masked by the strong seasonal changes. Key Points: We observe both coseismic dv/v drops and strong seasonal dv/v variations through a 20‐year systematic analysis in TaiwanThe rainfall‐induced pore pressure change is likely the primary control of the seasonal dv/v variations in the crustEvaluating the environmental influences on dv/v allows us to isolate crustal damage related to earthquakes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The local magnitude scale ML is defined by the difference between the observed amplitude (log A ) and the anchored attenuation amplitude (log A 0 ). A previous study in Taiwan established a model of the anchored amplitude as a function of the hypocentral distance R by matching the ML to the corresponding moment magnitude MW. Although the overall performance of the model is adequate, there remain some drawbacks, namely, the correlated empirical station correction problem and relatively low sample size. In this paper, we adopt the concept of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to develop a new method that can simultaneously estimate the anchored amplitude model coefficients and station corrections. The revised catalog using the latest dataset in Taiwan provides an up-to-date accurate estimate of ML. Additionally, the proposed method can systematically obtain statistically meaningful results and be applied to datasets of other regions in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquake early warning system uses high-speed computer network to transmit earthquake information to population center ahead of the arrival of destructive earthquake waves. This short (10 s of seconds) lead time will allow emergency responses such as turning off gas pipeline valves to be activated to mitigate potential disaster and casualties. However, the excessive false alarm rate of such a system imposes heavy cost in terms of loss of services, undue panics, and diminishing credibility of such a warning system. At the current, the decision algorithm to issue an early warning of the onset of an earthquake is often based on empirically chosen features and heuristically set thresholds and suffers from excessive false alarm rate. In this paper, we experimented with three advanced machine learning algorithms, namely, $K$ -nearest neighbor (KNN), classification tree, and support vector machine (SVM) and compared their performance against a traditional criterion-based method. Using the seismic data collected by an experimental strong motion detection network in Taiwan for these experiments, we observed that the machine learning algorithms exhibit higher detection accuracy with much reduced false alarm rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we test whether or not structural and morphological features inherited from the Eurasian continental margin are affecting the contemporary stress and strain fields in south-central Taiwan. Principal stress directions (σ1, σ2 and σ3) are estimated from the inversion of clustered earthquake focal mechanisms and the direction of the maximum compressive horizontal stress (S H) is calculated throughout the study area. From these data the most likely fault plane orientations and their kinematics are inferred. The results of the stress inversion are then discussed together with the directions of displacement, compressional strain rate and maximum shear strain rate derived from GPS data. These data show that there is a marked contrast in the direction of S H from north to south across the study area, with the direction of S H remaining roughly subparallel to the relative plate motion vector in the north, whereas in the south it rotates nearly 45° counter-clockwise. The direction of the horizontal maximum compression strain rate (εH) and associated maximum shear planes, together with the displacement field display an overall similar pattern between them, although undergoing a less marked rotation. We interpret the southward change in the S H, εH and the dextral maximum shear plane directions, together with that of the horizontal displacement field to be related to the reactivation of east–northeast striking faults inherited from the rifted Eurasian margin and to the shelf/slope break. Inherited faults in the basement are typically reactivated as strike-slip faults, whereas newly formed faults in the fold-and-thrust belt are commonly thrusts or oblique thrusts. Eastwards, the stress inversions and strain data show that the western flank of the Central Range is undergoing extension in the upper crust. S H in the Central Range is roughly parallel to the relative plate convergence vector, but in southwestern Taiwan it undergoes a marked counter-clockwise rotation westwards across the Chaochou fault. Farther north, however, there is no significant change across the Lishan fault. This north to south difference is likely due to different margin structures, although local topographic effects may also play a role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] The seismicity rate in central Taiwan remained high after Chi-Chi. [•] The rate increase could be attributed to the Chi-Chi coseismic stress increase. [•] Postseismic stress evolution cannot explain seismicity behavior. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Taiwan orogen sitting at the pre-rifted Eurasian margin and bracketed by two sub-orthogonal subduction systems is subject to complicated geotectonics, motivating numerous seismic tomographic studies in local and regional scale. Most of them obtained P-wave velocities (Vp), or with Vp/Vs ratio jointly, but few were for S-wave velocities (Vs). With unprecedented amount of S-wave data, in this study a new set of well-tuned Vp, Vs, and Vp/Vs models were determined by an elaborate joint-inversion scheme, integrating the data of P- and S-wave travel times, S–P times, and the borehole logging data (for near-surface correction) into one system. This allowed us to revisit the subduction-collision process in detail by comparing Vp, Vs, and Vp/Vs ratio simultaneously. With enhanced slab imaging of Philippine Sea Plate (PSP) under northeast Taiwan, we are able to discriminate the plausible missing Luzon forearc basement along the plate boundary and propose a “skateboarding” edge model, in which the westernmost PSP rides on the east-subducted forearc basement and subducts northward underneath the Eurasian lithosphere. The underlain forearc basement along with the PSP subduction then results in the anomalous shallow double seismic zone observed only near Taiwan Island. Meanwhile, at around 121°E the north-subducting PSP seems dipping west to collide with the deep Eurasian lithosphere, shaping an irregular corner wedge structure. In addition, we evaluate our model with previous ones by waveform modeling approach and show the current performance of travel-time tomography in Taiwan region. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Since the year 1973, more than 54,000 M ≥ 3.0 earthquakes have occurred around Taiwan, and their magnitude-frequency relationship was found following with the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence law with b value equal to 0.923 from the least-square calculation. However, using this b value with the McGuire-Arabasz algorithm results in some disagreement between observations and expectations in magnitude probability. This study introduces a simple approach to optimize the b value for better modeling of the magnitude probability, and its effectiveness is demonstrated in this paper. The result shows that the optimal b value can better model the observed magnitude distribution, compared with two customary methods. For example, given magnitude threshold = 5.0 and maximum magnitude = 8.0, the optimal b value of 0.835 is better than 0.923 from the least-square calculation and 0.913 from maximum likelihood estimation for simulating the earthquake's magnitude probability distribution around Taiwan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Three approaches are introduced to estimate maximum aftershock magnitudes in Taiwan. [•] All of the approaches demonstrated their feasibility within the range of uncertainty. [•] The obtained results may be of benefit to decision-makers for seismic hazards mitigation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We propose an approach to imaging earthquake source rupture process by direct back-projection of local high-frequency (0.1–2.5 Hz) P-wave displacements from strong-motion records. A series of synthetic experiments are performed which demonstrate that our approach is capable of recovering the spatial-temporal distribution of the source slip with a good station coverage and a high average coherence value between the target and template waveforms. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by applying it to image the slip distribution of an earthquake occurred on 2010 March 4, in Jiasian (Mw = 6.0 and ML = 6.4) in southern Taiwan. The resulting moment-rate amplitude images show that the source rupture initiated at the vicinity of the hypocentre, followed by a moderate moment-rate release to the southeast of the hypocentre and a subsequent upward propagation, and finally propagated in the northwest direction, in agreement with the distribution of aftershocks. The majority of the slip at 17–20 km depth occurred to the west of the hypocentre, in a general agreement with the slip distributions obtained from dislocation model and finite-fault inversions. Our modified back-projection approach relies on seismic waveforms with the considerations of a recent 3-D structure model, high average coherence value, station correction factor and simplified amplitude correction. It is computationally efficient and allows for near real-time determinations of source slip distributions after earthquakes using strong-motion records. A quick result for the rupture model can be used in the calculation of strong ground-motion, providing important, useful and timely information for seismic hazard mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: It was found that groundwater can be fluctuated by a variety of disturbances. For instance, seismic activity inducing the dilatation of earth can disturb groundwater level fluctuation as observed in groundwater wells. In this research, spectral analysis in the frequency domain was used to quantitatively evaluate coherence between groundwater head fluctuations and the ground motions recorded in Taiwan from a distant earthquake, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in northern Honshu, Japan with magnitude of 9. The relationship between groundwater fluctuations and the decomposed ground motions of Rayleigh waves are clearly identified. By analyzing autospectral density, cross-spectral density, and resultant coherence for the seismograms and groundwater head, it was found that the Rayleigh waves dominated the groundwater fluctuations at period of about 21–32s for six pair of groundwater and seismograms of broadband distributed around Taiwan; fluctuations of groundwater are highly coherent with the radial and vertical components of ground motions. Our analysis also shows the time from event to station for Rayleigh waves ranged from 780 to 900s approximately. Wave parameter for seismic event to station of groundwater and seismograms were also identified as 3.0–3.5km/s and 64–110km for wave velocity and wave length, respectively. The relationship of groundwater fluctuations and ground motions induced by seismic activity become feasible to assess using spectral analysis. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Highlights: [•] P- and S-velocity anomalies in the mantle beneath Taiwan are presented. [•] Seismic tomography clearly reveals two slabs beneath Taiwan. [•] The origin of Taiwan is due to collision of two oppositely oriented subduction zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study first presents the series of peak ground acceleration (PGA) in the three major cities in Taiwan. The PGAs are back-calculated from an earthquake catalog with the use of ground motion models. The maximums of the 84th percentile (mean + one standard deviation) PGA since 1900 are 1.03, 0.36, and 0.10 g, in Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung, respectively. Statistical goodness-of-fit testing shows that the series of PGA follow a double-lognormal distribution. Using the verified probability distribution, a probabilistic analysis was developed in this paper, and used to evaluate probability-based seismic hazard. Accordingly, given a PGA equal to 0.5 g, the annual exceedance probabilities are 0.56, 0.46, and 0.23 % in Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung, respectively; for PGA equal to 1.0 g, the probabilities become 0.18, 0.14, and 0.09 %. As a result, this analysis indicates the city in South Taiwan is associated with relatively lower seismic hazard, compared with those in Central and North Taiwan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In order to better understand the mode of subduction polarity reversal in the Taiwan–Luzon arc-continent collision zone, we mapped its crust–mantle boundaries using local earthquake tomography. By contouring surfaces of constant Vp=7.5kms−1, we identified three Moho discontinuities and the plate interface that juxtaposes Eurasian lower crust against mantle lithosphere of the Philippine Sea plate. The plate interface dips to the east under southeastern Taiwan and steepens progressively towards north until it becomes vertical at 23.7°N. From there it continues northward in a vertical orientation, until the limit of the tomographic model inhibited further mapping. For the Moho, additional depth constraints were derived from 1D models using P-wave arrivals of local earthquakes. The Mohos of the Eurasian and Philippine Sea plates are disconnected across the plate interface. Beneath southern Taiwan, the Eurasian Moho dips to the east at 50–60°, following the orientation of the plate boundary and continuous with the Benioff zone. Towards north, the Eurasian Moho steepens into subvertical, again together with the plate boundary. The Philippine Sea plate Moho exhibits a synform-like crustal root, interpreted as the base of the magmatic Luzon arc. Towards the north, this root deepens from 30 to 70km underneath the Ryukyu trench. In northernmost Taiwan, the hinge of the vertically subducting Eurasian slab steps westward out of the thrust belt, leaving the deformation front to the east inactive and giving way to the north-dipping Philippine Sea plate. A subhorizontal Moho at 30–35km depth overlies the north-dipping Philippine Sea slab and is interpreted as a newly formed Moho, established after westward rollback and delamination of the subducting Eurasian slab. In combination, these data support a model of progressive subduction polarity reversal, in which a tear within the Eurasian lithosphere propagated southwestward, deactivating the deformation front. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Following the 4 March 2010 MW 6.4 Jiashian earthquake the seismicity rate in southern Taiwan was determined to be significantly higher than before the quake and aroused seismic hazard awareness. In this work, seismic hazards were investigated in terms of earthquake activity, the Coulomb stress change, the rate-and-state friction model, and short-term seismic hazard assessments. The significantly higher seismicity rate that followed the 2010 Jiashian earthquake was found to mainly be attributed to aftershock decay, in terms of the modified Omori formula. The results suggest that aftershock duration may continue until the end of 2012. The spatial migration of seismicity was modeled using the Coulomb stress changes of large earthquakes. Most of the consequent events were distributed in the vicinity of large earthquakes. The observations corresponded to a remarkable stress increase within the same area. Additionally, large events were located within regions with stress increases promoted by previous earthquakes. The results confirm interactive relationships between large events. By considering time-dependency, the seismicity rate evolution was estimated using the rate-and-state friction model. The results indicated that a high seismic rate will persist at least until the end of 2012. Short-term probabilistic seismic hazard assessments were also applied in terms of the probability of strong ground motion. Using this application, a sudden jump in seismic hazards in southern Taiwan was accompanied by each large earthquake. At the end of 2012 it is expected that hazards will return to a background level. Our results may be valuable in the future to decision-makers and public officials engaged in seismic hazard mitigation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We investigate the spatial and temporal variations of b-values before twenty-three earthquakes with M L ≥6.0 in the Taiwan region from 1999 to 2009. We estimate the spatial distribution of b-values within a one-year period before the occurrence of investigated earthquakes. It shows that the epicenters of those earthquakes are located predominately in the regions with low b-values relative to the entire study area. In terms of temporal evolutions, the b-values are slightly lower during the year prior to the investigated earthquakes in comparison to the periods two to five years earlier. We propose that these anomalies may offer spatiotemporal constraints for the earthquake forecasting in Taiwan in the future. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A very common but important observation of collided and accreted volcanic arcs is that the forearc regions of these arcs are largely or even entirely missing. The processes and mechanisms responsible for the removal and transport of the forearc materials from the collisional belts are thus important issues in understanding tectonics and crustal growth. The young and ongoing collision between the Luzon volcanic arc and the Eurasian continental margin that forms the island of Taiwan provides a rare opportunity to examine these processes and mechanisms as they occur. From observations of a new detailed 3-D tomography combined with relocated hypocenters of two earthquake sequences occurred in 2003 and 2006, we found that the Luzon forearc lithosphere initially underthrusts westward after the collision began. As the collision proceeds, the forearc basement then subducts eastward beneath the colliding and accreting Luzon arc along a major fault system in eastern Taiwan. Thus the Luzon forearc lithosphere appears to be removed by tectonic erosion and is being transported eastward into the mantle. Our results from the active Taiwan orogen will provide important insights for interpreting rock records from many old arc-continent collisional belts in the world. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The use of characteristic period τc and peak displacement amplitude Pd of the initial P wave in earthquake early warning (EEW) was proposed by Wu and Kanamori . Here we apply this approach to strong-motion records from a building sensor array installed in Taitung County, Taiwan. This building was damaged during the 2006 Mw =6.1 Taitung earthquake with a peak ground velocity (PGV) of up to 38.4cm/s at an epicentral distance of 14.5km. According to our analysis, the peak displacement amplitude Pd is a better indicator for the destructiveness of an earthquake than τc because τc is more sensitive to the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) than Pd. In accordance with previous studies, only the structurally damaging Taitung earthquake generated a Pd value larger than 0.5cm (a threshold for identifying damaging events). Using Pd as an indicator for destructive earthquakes does not lead to missing or false alarms for EEW purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A new prototype earthquake early warning (EEW) system is being developed and tested using a real-time seismographic network currently in operation in Taiwan. This system is based on the Earthworm environment which carries out integrated analysis of real-time broadband, strong-motion and short-period signals. The peak amplitude of displacement in the three seconds after the P arrival, dubbed Pd , is used for the magnitude determination. Incoming signals are processed in real time. When a large earthquake occurs, P-wave arrival times and Pd will be estimated for location and magnitude determinations for EEW purpose. In a test of 54 felt earthquakes, this system can report earthquake information in 18.8±4.1s after the earthquake occurrence with an average difference in epicenter locations of 6.3±5.7km, and an average difference in depths of 7.9±6.6km from catalogues. The magnitudes approach a 1:1 relationship to the reported magnitudes with a standard deviation of 0.51. Therefore, this system can provide early warning before the arrival of S-wave for metropolitan areas located 70km away from the epicenter. This new system is still under development and being improved, with the hope of replacing the current operational EEW system in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The total amount of 4,761 focal mechanisms was determined based on P-wave first motion polarities from 1991 to 2007 in Taiwan region. This dataset offers us a good opportunity to examine temporal and spatial variability of the stress field. We find that the spatial variations of stress axes are mainly controlled by tectonic structures while the temporal changes are greatly influenced by the Chi-Chi earthquake. The orientation of the maximum horizontal compressive stress axes (SH) shows a general agreement with the direction of plate motion between a depth range of 0–30km. The 20° anticlockwise rotation of SH from the Longitudinal Valley (LV) to western Taiwan is probably caused by the left-lateral motion on the Longitudinal Valley Fault (LVF) that has consumed part of the oblique motion of plate convergence. On the other hand, part of the oblique convergence is transferred into the Central Range and the Hsuehshan Range judging from counterclockwise rotation of SH from east to west and strike-slip faulting in the Hsuehshan Range. Most events with a depth greater than 30km occur offshore eastern Taiwan and the azimuth of SH is close to E–W directed, different from NW–SE directed at shallow depths. This may infer the existence of the transition of lithosphere rheology in offshore eastern Taiwan. The trends of SH in the depth of 0–10km are strongly affected by the coseismic stress change of the Chi-Chi earthquake. In the northern half of the Chi-Chi rupture area, the trends of SH rotate 30° clockwise and the stress ratio increased by a factor of six after the mainshock. The orientations of SH still differ by 30° in 2007 comparing to that in the period before the Chi-Chi earthquake. The variation of SH trend is more diverse in the southern half of the rupture area, showing 20° counterclockwise rotation immediately after the 1999 mainshock followed by a clockwise rotation. The trend of SH returns to the pre-seismic direction of 110° in 2001. These notable changes of SH before and after the Chi-Chi mainshock suggests that the magnitude of background stress in the rupture area is close to the coseismic stress drop. We also recognize a significant 10° counterclockwise rotation of SH in the entire Chi-Chi rupture area between 1991 and 1999 before the earthquake took place. However, to the south of the Chi-Chi rupture, the trends of SH remain little changed before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We combine the arrival time data from eleven ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) and from permanent stations of the Central Weather Bureau Seismic Network (CWBSN) and the Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP) to improve the three-dimensional Vp and Vp/Vs structures in the Taiwan region, relocate hypocenters of earthquakes in southern Taiwan including the 2006 Pingtung Earthquake sequence, and determine the focal mechanisms of some of the larger events. Our tomography result suggests that in the region south of Taiwan the Eurasian continental lithosphere is being subducted beneath the oceanic Philippine Sea plate, leading to a region of low P-wave speed with seismicity on top of a relatively high P-wave speed zone. The hypocentral distribution of the Pingtung Earthquake sequence indicates that the first event in the initial two largest shocks was a normal-faulting quake caused by the bending of the subducting lithosphere. The second event, perhaps triggered by the first one, was a strike-slip earthquake. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We investigate the variations in seismicity pattern in the Taiwan region before the 2003 Chengkung, Taiwan, earthquake (M w =6.8) by calculating the standard normal deviate of the Z-values and b-values from the Gutenberg–Richter relation. The Mogi donut-shaped variations in the seismicity can be identified in the Z-value map surrounding the Chengkung earthquake source region. Noticeable decreases in the b-values have also been found around the mainshock region before the Chengkung event. The relatively low-seismicity rate and the decrease in the b-values may be the precursory phenomena associated with the quiescence in overall seismicity and the activation of moderate-sized events occurred around the mainshock region before the Chengkung event. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A transition and subduction zone adjacent to the Ryukyu Arc, Ryukyu Trench, and Okinawa Trough, extends between southern Japan and northeastern Taiwan. It is generated during the northwestward subduction of the Philippine Sea Plate, which lies the Eurasian Plate along the Ryukyu Trench. The movement of the Philippine Sea Plate is hindered at the northeastern corner of Taiwan, which causes complicated structure of the Philippine Sea Plate at the western end of the Ryukyu subduction zone. Development of the active subduction and transition boundary near the western Ryukyu Arc is evaluated statistically by using displacements derived from GPS site data. The statistical model shows that the absolute displacement derived from GPS measurements of nearly 8 years indicates a maximum spatial variation of 0.625 m. Three trends are observed for such long-term progress, and use of linear regression also reveals quite good consistency between the data and statistic models. Such rate is also elevated following the trend development. Southeastern and nearly horizontal movement is suggested to the main development of for the site movements, it is likely related to the tensional activity adjacent to this boundary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce an empirical method of near real-time, near-field magnitude determination for large (M>6.5) crustal earthquakes. Time integration over the strong shaking duration on the absolute values of the acceleration records is carried out for nearby stations surrounding many large earthquake sources in Taiwan. The integrated quantity, here denoted as total effective shaking, is used in a regression process to derive an empirical relationship for a quick Mw determination useful for a reliable real-time operation in earthquake rapid reporting and earthquake early warning systems (EWSs). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Seismic instrumentation for earthquake early warnings (EEWs) has improved significantly in the last few years, considering the station coverage, data quality, and the related applications. The official EEW system in Taiwan is operated by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) and is responsible for issuing the regional warning for moderate-to-large earthquakes occurring in and around Taiwan. The low-cost micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS)-based P-Alert EEW system is operational in Taiwan for on-site warnings and for producing shakemaps. Since 2010, this P-Alert system, installed by the National Taiwan University (NTU), has shown its importance during various earthquakes that caused damage in Taiwan. Although the system is capable of acting as a regional as well as an on-site warning system, it is particularly useful for on-site warning. Using real-time seismic signals, each P-Alert system can provide a 2–8 s-long warning time for the locations situated in the blind zone of the CWB regional warning system. The shakemaps plotted using this instrumentation help to assess the damage pattern and rupture directivity, a key feature in the risk mitigation process. These shakemaps are delivered to the intended users, including the disaster mitigation authorities, for possible relief purposes. Earlier, the network provided only peak ground acceleration (PGA) shakemaps, but has now been updated to include peak ground velocity (PGV), spectral acceleration ( S a ) at different periods, and CWB intensity maps. The PGA and PGV shakemaps plotted using this network have proven helpful in establishing the fact that PGV is a better indicator of damage detection than PGA. This instrumentation is also useful in structural health-monitoring and estimating co-seismic deformations. Encouraged by the performance of the P-Alert network, more instruments are installed in Asia-Pacific countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using low-cost sensors to build a seismic network for earthquake early warning (EEW) and to generate shakemaps is a cost-effective way in the field of seismology. National Taiwan University (NTU) network employing 748 P-Alert sensors based on micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) technology is operational for almost the last 10 years. This instrumentation is capable of recording the strong ground motions of up to ± 2g and is dense enough to record the near-field ground motion. It has proven effective in generating EEW warnings and delivering real-time shakemaps to the concerned disaster relief agencies to mitigate the earthquake-affected regions. Before 2020, this instrumentation was used to plot peak ground acceleration (PGA) shakemaps only; however, recently it has been upgraded to generate the peak ground velocity (PGV), Central Weather Bureau (CWB) Intensity scale, and spectral acceleration (Sa) shakemaps at different periods as value-added products. After upgradation, the performance of the network was observed using the latest recorded earthquakes in the country. The experimental results in the present work demonstrate that the new parameters shakemaps added in the current work provide promising outputs, and are comparable with the shakemaps given by the official agency CWB. These shakemaps are helpful to delineate the earthquake-hit regions which in turn is required to assist the needy well in time to mitigate the seismic risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the inception of 62 borehole seismic arrays deployed by Central Weather Bureau(CWB) in Taiwan until the end of 2018, a large quantity of strong-motion records have beenaccumulated from frequently occurring earthquakes around Taiwan, which provide anopportunity to understand the site effects (e.g., amplification) caused by the subsurfacematerials. Each borehole array includes two force balance accelerometers, one atthe surface and other at a depth of a few ten-to-hundred (30-492) meters, as wellas one broadband seismometer is below the borehole accelerometer. In general,the background seismic noise level are lower at the borehole stations than surfacestations, facilitating to detect microseismicity. For a few earthquakes, the seismogramsrecorded by the borehole stations are smaller than surface stations due to the differentgeological conditions. The resulting of site-specific spectral decay parameter κ0(Kappa value) has been derived by our pervious study, and relative higher κ0 could beobserved at surface station, indicating a strong attenuation effect. In this study,we used 147 earthquakes with local magnitude (ML) > 4.0 to investigate the siteamplification at materials between downhole and surface stations. Result showsthe amplification factors ranging from 1.1 to 10, provide additional parameter tounderstand the site effect. These amplification factors have a strong relationship withVs30 (the average S-wave velocity of the top 30 m of strata), showing the linearcorrelation coefficient of -0.6. Furthermore, we conduct a series investigation ofborehole-based and surface-based ML values for a purpose of providing the comprehensiveearthquake catalog and additional seismic records to study earthquake early warning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On February 6, 2018, a Mw 6.4 earthquake struck near Hualien city, in eastern Taiwan with a focal depth of 10.4 km. The earthquake caused strong shaking and severe damage to many buildings in Hualien. The maximum intensity during this earthquake reached VII (> 0.4 g) in the epicentral region, which is extreme in Taiwan, and capable of causing damage in built structures. Seventeen people died and approximately 285 were injured. Taiwan was one of the first countries to implement an earthquake early warning (EEW) system that is capable of issuing a warning prior to strong shaking. In addition to the official EEW run by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), a low-cost EEW system (P-Alert) has been deployed by National Taiwan University (NTU). The P-Alert network is currently operational and is capable of providing on-site EEW as well as a map of expected ground shaking. In present work, we demonstrate the performance of the P-Alert network during the 2018 Hualien earthquake. The shake maps generated by the P-Alert network were available within 2 minutes and are in good agreement with the patterns of observed damage in the area. These shake maps provide insights into rupture directivity which are crucial for earthquake engineering. During this earthquake individual P-Alert stations acted as onsite EEW systems and provided 2-8 s lead-time in the blind zone around the epicenter. The co-seismic deformation (Cd) is estimated using the records of P-Alert stations. The higher Cd values (Cd > 2) in epicentral region are very helpful for authorities to respond for the purpose of damage mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Proposed in the late 1980s, cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) is a new intensity measure for earthquake ground motion characterizations, followed by studies and applications such as CAV ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). In this study, two new CAV GMPEs were developed with 24,667 strong-motion records from Taiwan, and the first CAV seismic hazard assessment for Taipei (the most important city in Taiwan) was then conducted using the local CAV models. It shows that the annual rate for the study area to encounter a ground motion with CAV >0.97 g-sec is 0.002 per year, corresponding to a 10% occurrence probability in 50 years. By contrast, the deterministic scenario-based analysis shows that the CAV seismic hazard is about 0.60 g-sec for the study area. Future studies are worth conducting to develop more sophisticated, local CAV GPMEs and to explore more applications of such CAV prediction models, such as the developments of PGA-CAV joint probability distributions for conducting PGA-CAV joint seismic hazard assessments. • First CAV GMPE for Taiwan areas. • More than 4,000 strong motion records used. • CAV-based seismic hazard analysis for Taipei. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Continuous seismic records near river channels can be used to quantify the energy induced by river sediment transport. During the 2011 typhoon season, we deployed a seismic array along the Chishan River in the mountain area of southern Taiwan, where there is strong variability in water discharge and high sedimentation rates. We observe hysteresis in the high-frequency (5-15 Hz) seismic noise level relative to the associated hydrological parameters. In addition, our seismic noise analysis reveals an asymmetry and a high coherence in noise cross-correlation functions for several station pairs during the typhoon passage, which corresponds to sediment particles and turbulent flows impacting along the riverbed where the river bends sharply. Based on spectral characteristics of the seismic records, we also detected 20 landslide/debris flow events, which we use to estimate the sediment supply. Comparison of sediment flux between seismologically determined bedload and derived suspended load indicates temporal changes in the sediment flux ratio, which imply a complex transition process from the bedload regime to the suspension regime between typhoon passage and off-typhoon periods. Our study demonstrates the possibility of seismologically monitoring river bedload transport, thus providing valuable additional information for studying fluvial bedrock erosion and mountain landscape evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many earthquake empirical models were developed based on the statistics in the past. However, it is commonly seen that a non-local model was applied to a local study without any adjustment. In this paper, a new algorithm using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to adjust a non-local model for local applications was presented, including a case study assessing the probability of major earthquake occurrences in Taipei. Specifically, considering the fault length of 36 km and slip rate of 2 mm/yr, it suggests the Sanchiao (or Shanchiao) fault could induce a major earthquake with magnitude M w 7.14±0.17, based on a non-local model integrated with limited local data using the MLE algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquake early warning (EEW) has been implemented in several regions around the world. However, because of natural randomness and uncertainty, false alarm and missed alarm can be expected in EEW. The key scope of this study is to evaluate the reliability of an on-site EEW in Taiwan, by testing the system's algorithm with 17,836 earthquake data from 1999 to 2013. The analysis shows that the on-site EEW system, empirically speaking, should have a false-alarm probability of 2.5%, and a missed-alarm probability of 14.1%. Considering missed alarm should be more critical to EEW, a new algorithm that could reduce the system's missed-alarm occurrences to 6% is also discussed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Longitudinal Valley in eastern Taiwan is generally considered as the suture of the collision between the Philippine Sea and the Eurasian plates, and has attracted numerous geologic and seismologic studies. In the northernmost part of the valley, however, constraints on how structures develop as the suture turns into the Ryukyu subduction system offshore are still very limited. Therefore, we analyzed relocated seismicity distributions and focal mechanisms of earthquake sequences, together with tectonic geomorphic investigations to further understand the seismotectonic characteristics of this area. In our seismologic observations, we found two previously unidentified reverse faults in the northernmost part of the Longitudinal Valley suture. One is an E–W striking, south-dipping reverse fault near the Liwu River fan delta, and the other is a N–S striking, east-dipping reverse fault near the eastern Central Range front. Both these structures connect with a detachment at ~ 10 km deep, and may connect with each other to form a curved structural system. The Meilun fault, a well-known active structure that ruptured in a M7.3 earthquake in October 1951, is not seismically active in the past two decades, and may just be part of a secondary branch of the major structural system. In the northernmost part of the Longitudinal Valley suture, we propose that as the Coastal Range bedrocks subduct northward beneath the Eurasian plate with the Philippine Sea plate, the shallow sediments of the Longitudinal Valley, being a buoyant block, do not subduct, but overthrust northward and westward instead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is understood that sample size could be an issue in earthquake statistical studies, causing the best estimate being too deterministic or less representative derived from limited statistics from observation. Like many Bayesian analyses and estimates, this study shows another novel application of the Bayesian approach to earthquake engineering, using prior data to help compensate the limited observation for the target problem to estimate the magnitude of the recurring Meishan earthquake in central Taiwan. With the Bayesian algorithms developed, the Bayesian analysis suggests that the next major event induced by the Meishan fault in central Taiwan should be in M w 6.44±0.33, based on one magnitude observation of M w 6.4 from the last event, along with the prior data including fault length of 14 km, rupture width of 15 km, rupture area of 216 km 2 , average displacement of 0.7 m, slip rate of 6 mm/yr, and five earthquake empirical models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On Mar. 27, 2013, a M L 6.2 earthquake occurred in the Nantou area of central Taiwan, which caused one death and nearly 90 injured. Two months later, another M L 6.3 earthquake struck the same region on June 2, 2013, the epicenter of which is close to the March M L 6.2 earthquake. Seismicity is a sensitive indicator of stress rate and inelastic deformation process in crust. Therefore, examination of temporal changes in seismicity is important to understand the preparatory processes of damaging inland earthquakes. In this study, we applied the Epidemic-Type Aftershock-Sequences model (ETAS model) to the earthquake data covering broader Taiwan region, which is maintained by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) of Taiwan, to investigate precursory temporal changes in seismicity for the M L 6.2 Nantou earthquake. We regard the March M L 6.2 and June M L 6.3 earthquakes as an event sequence and especially focus on temporal changes in seismicity prior to the M L 6.2 event. Application of more than one model to an earthquake catalog would be informative in elucidating the relationships between seismicity precursors and the preparatory processes of large earthquakes. Based on this motivation, we further applied two different approaches: the pattern informatics (PI) method and the ZMAP method, which is a gridding technique based on the standard deviate (Z-value) test to the same earthquake data of CWB. As a result, we found that the epicenter of the 2013 M L 6.2 Nantou earthquake was surrounded by three main seismic quiescence regions prior to its occurrence. The assumption that this is due to precursory slip (stress drop) on fault plane or its deeper extent of the M L 6.2 Nantou earthquake is supported by previous researches based on seismicity data, geodedic data, and numerical simulations using rate- and state-dependent friction laws. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present an updated evaluation of SE Asian geodynamics that includes the interactions of the South China Sea (SCS) marginal basin with surrounding plates since the end of SCS spreading 20.5–18 Ma. Newly available Ar39/Ar40 ages of SCS oceanic crust drilled at IODP U1431 near the SCS East basin extinct spreading center are older than 18 Ma. Conversely, the oldest ages of the Luzon arc and forearc at Taiwan's Lanyu island, Coastal range and Lichi mélange are 17–18 Ma, suggesting that onset of the Manila subduction zone may have begun a few m.y. earlier. Before ∼20.5 Ma, the northern part of the Manila transcurrent fault (MTF), considered as the western boundary of the Ryukyu subduction zone, was a left-lateral lithospheric-scale shear zone. From ∼20.5–18 Ma to ∼7 Ma, this portion of MTF was connected to the Manila trench. Since ∼7 Ma, the MTF extended into the Taiwan Longitudinal valley and continued southwards to north Luzon island as near-vertical, left-lateral shear zone. Today, south of ∼24°N, the MTF protrudes down to 30 km depths and terminates above the deeper Manila slab. Since ∼7 Ma, the whole MTF shifted 400 km westward with respect to Eurasia and rotated ∼23° clockwise to become oriented ∼NS north of 16°N latitude. We identify a tear fault in the Eurasian (EU) plate north of the Ryukyu trench that is located south of the Myako and Yonaguni islands. Since ∼10 Ma, the tear continuously progressed westward within EU crust, with the Philippine Sea plate progressively subducting northwestward between the two lips of the tear fault. A RFF (ridge-fault-fault) triple junction was active in the EU crust before 20.5 Ma, from 10 to 7 Ma, and since 2 Ma. This triple junction was always located on the MTF with one branch of the MTF on each side of the triple junction, and the third branch being the spreading center. • Near East basin extinct spreading center, older than 18 Ma Ar Ar basement age • Oldest ages of the Luzon arc/forearc are 18 Ma in Lanyu island and east Taiwan. • NS sinistral shear fault system called Manila transcurrent fault (MTF). • From north of Taiwan, MTF follows Longitudinal valley to Philippine fault zone • Five kinematic reconstructions present the SE Asia geodynamics since 20.5 Ma [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study develops a probabilistic approach for examining site-specific seismic hazards using data from 438 M w ≥5.5 earthquakes and attenuation relationships local to the region around Taiwan. These are combined to generate semi-observed peak ground accelerations, in a form which can be modeled by a double-lognormal distribution. This model, which satisfies statistical goodness-of-fit, provides the relationship between the exceedance probability and a given ground motion level. The study includes site-specific seismic hazard analysis for four nuclear power plant sites in Taiwan. The results show that the seismic hazards at the four sites are not the same. While no seismic hazard analysis is without challenge, a troublesome trend appears that many applications of decision making are being influenced by the complexity of the calculation, instead of how well the fundamentals of the analysis are understood and can be verified. The study provides an analysis which is not overly complicated, is in good agreement with an empirical control, and offers transparency, traceability, and verifiability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The first attenuation relationships of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) for northern Vietnam are obtained in this study. Ground motion data are collected by a portable broadband seismic network in northern Vietnam as a part of cooperation between the Institute of Geophysics, Vietnamese Academy of Science and Technology, Vietnam and Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taiwan. The database comprises a total of 330 amplitude records by 14 broadband stations from 53 shallow earthquakes, which were occurred in and around northern Vietnam in the period between 01/2006 and 12/2009. These earthquakes are of local magnitudes between 1.6 and 4.6, focal depths less than 30km, and epicentral distances less than 500km. The new attenuation relationships for PGA and PGV are: where PGA is in cm/s2, PGV is in cm/s, and R is the epicentral distance in kilometers. The site corrections are also derived in this study. These site corrections are very suitable with the station corrections for ML and imply the qualification of the resulting attenuation relationships. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Earthquake early warning (EEW) plays an important role in earthquake disaster mitigation. There are two types of EEW system, regional and on-site. On-site EEW systems analyze initial part of the seismic waves from the P-waves to predict later ground motion from the S-waves and surface waves. In recent years, an on-site EEW method based on fixed peak displacement (Pd) threshold is developed. Although the method consistently provides effective warnings in Taiwan, several studies suggest that its strong filter dependence might introduce extra biases to the system. Also, the fixed Pd threshold suffers from the inevitable trade-off between a false alarm and a missed alarm. In order to overcome the abovementioned problems of fixed Pd threshold method, we utilize techniques in machine learning and develop a new method of on-site early warning. Owing to the property that convoluted-neural-network (CNN) will automatic sampling on different frequencies, the unfiltered seismic signal itself is sufficient to derive a warning threshold. Also, multi-layered neural-network is capable of forming a complex non-linear threshold to reduce both the false alarms and missed alarms. As an example, we collect 21 medium to large inland earthquakes in Taiwan. We compare the performance between the proposed method and the fixed Pd threshold method. The result shows that the proposed method outperforms in both false alarm rate (0.01 percent) and missed alarm rate (30 percent). The proposed method can provide not only significant improvements for on-site EEW but also a window into the initial P-waves. Studying the trained models might even reveal the hidden indicators inside the initial P-waves.Keywords: earthquake disaster mitigation, on-site type earthquake early warning, machine learning [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variation of earthquake size distribution (b-value) is well known to be governed by crustal differential stresses as the most preeminent parameter worldwide. Pore fluid pressure, as one of the secondary parameters, is still poorly understood how does the change affect b-value variation regionally. To know the relationship between b-value and pore fluid pressure, distribution and degree of pore fluid pressure are inferred from crustal seismic velocities based on assumption that pore fluid pressure varies linearly with Vp/Vs ratio. This experiment proceeded from a young orogenic belt, Taiwan, where high-quality seismic datasets and velocity models existed. The b-value dataset was determined from a relocated, declustered earthquake catalog and the seismic velocities were re-estimated to be spatially complementary to the b-values. We found that high and low Vp/Vs ratios are correlated with low and high b-values, respectively, in the crustal range of Taiwan orogenic belt. A clear negative linear relationship between b-value and Vp/Vs ratio indicates that Vp/Vs ratios decrease with increasing b-values. The results could imply a similar b-value dependence on pore fluid pressure regionally, raising the role of pore fluid pressure in b-value variability at potential fluid-activity regions as permeable fault zones, volcanic zones, or brittle-ductile transition zones. We suggest that pore fluid pressure and b-value variability deserved a comprehensive investigation to better understand the processes of earthquake nucleation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study (1) the spatial anomalies and (2) the temporal anomalies of soil gas in northern Taiwan. The spatial anomalies of soil gas are related to tectonic faults, while the temporal anomalies of soil gas are associated with pre-earthquake activities. Detailed soil gas sampling was systematically performed, and the analysis of the collected gas species shows that high helium and nitrogen concentrations appear in samples from specific sites, which coincide with the structural setting of the area studied. This analysis indicates the possibility of using these soil gases to determine fault zones in the studied area. Based on the soil gas data, a station (Tapingti) for automatic soil gas monitoring was constructed on an appropriate site at the fault zone. Some anomalous high radon concentrations at certain times can be identified from the dataset, which was generated by the continuous monitoring of soil gas for over a year. Notably, many of these anomalies were observed several hours to a few days before the earthquakes (M L > 3) that occurred in northern Taiwan. By combining the information of epicenters and fault plane solutions of these earthquakes, we find that the shallow earthquakes (<15 km) were mainly strike-slip and normal-type earthquakes, and concentrated within a distance of 30 km to the monitoring site (Group A). The deep earthquakes (>20 km) were mainly thrust-type earthquakes and distributed in greater distances (>45 km) east of the monitoring site (Group B). Such focal mechanisms of earthquakes suggest an extensional and compressional structural domain in the continental crust for Group A and Group B earthquakes, respectively. It is suggested that the pre-earthquake activities associated with the seismicity of Group B may be transmitted along the major decollement in the region below the Tapingti station, leading to the observed soil gas enhancements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the first whole Taiwan-scale spatial variation of the seismogenic zone using a high-quality crustal seismicity catalog. The seismicity onset and cutoff depths (i.e., seismogenic depths) are determined by the earthquake depth–moment distribution and used to define the upper and lower boundaries of the seismogenic zone, respectively. Together with the published fault geometries and fault area–moment magnitude relations, the depth difference in the onset and cutoff depths (i.e., seismogenic thickness) is used as the fault width to determine the moment magnitudes of potential earthquakes for the major seismogenic faults. Results show that the largest ( Mw 7.9–8.0) potential earthquake may occur along the Changhua fault in western Taiwan, where the seismic risk is relatively high and seismic hazard mitigation should be a matter of urgent concern. In addition, the first-motion focal mechanism catalog is used to examine the relation between the seismogenic depths and earthquake source parameters. For crustal earthquakes (≤ 50 km), the shallowest onset and cutoff depths are observed for normal and strike-slip events, respectively. This observation is different from the prediction of the conventional continental-rheology model, which states that thrust events have the shallowest cutoff depth. Thus, a more sophisticated rheology model is necessary to explain our observed dependence of the seismogenic depths on faulting types. Meanwhile, for intermediate to large crustal ( Mw ≥ 4; depth ≤ 50 km) earthquakes, thrust events tend to occur at the bottom region of the seismogenic zone, but normal and strike-slip events distribute at a large depth range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Taiwan mountain belt is generally thought to develop above a through-going basal thrust confined to within the sedimentary cover of the Eurasian continental margin. Surface geology, magnetotelluric, earthquake hypocenter, and seismic tomography data suggest, however, that crustal levels below this basal thrust are also currently being involved in the deformation. Here, we combine seismic tomography and earthquake hypocenter data to investigate the deformation that is taking place at depth beneath south-central Taiwan. In this paper, we define the basement as any pre-Eocene rifting rocks, and use a P-wave velocity of 5.2 km/s as a reference for the interface between these rocks and their sedimentary cover. We found that beneath the Coastal Plain and the Western Foothills clustering of hypocenters near the basement-cover interface suggests that this interface is acting as a detachment. This detachment is located below the basal thrust proposed from surface geology for this part of the mountain belt. Inherited basement faults appear to determine the geometry of this detachment, and their inversion in the Alishan area result in the development of a basement uplift and a lateral structure in the thrust system above them. However, across the Shuilikeng and the Chaochou faults, earthquake hypocenters define steeply dipping clusters that extend to greater than 20 km depth, above which higher velocity basement rocks are uplifted beneath the Hsuehshan and Central ranges. We interpret these clusters to form a deeply penetrating, east-dipping ramp that joins westward with the detachment at the basement-cover interface. It is not possible to define a basal thrust to the east, beneath the Central Range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Variations in the fractal dimension of earthquakes have been suggested to be a precursor of a large earthquake. However, the physical characteristics and seismicity are always different along a large fault system, and it is difficult to segment a large fault for further investigating. Therefore, the fractal dimension of earthquakes on a given fault only reflects the average seismic characteristics of the area and may be unrelated to precursory activity. In this paper, the evolution of the temporal generalized fractal dimension (Dq) of a seismic cluster within a small fault system associated with the Chiayi earthquake (ML =6.4), Taiwan, is investigated. The earthquakes of this sequence are confined in small source volume and reflect the behavior of the local fault system. Our results show that the Dq curve of the background stage is smooth with a low multifractal degree (0.36) and the seismicity is nearly monofractal in the Chiayi region. During the foreshock stage, the seismicity becomes active such that not only the Dq curve exhibits greater variability especially for the steep slope of Dq curve at q=0 but also the temporal fractal dimension changes from nearly monofractal to multifractal. In the aftershock stage, the fluctuation of Dq is large and the multifractal degree is up to 1.0. The temporal multifractal property becomes more pronounced as well. Finally, when the seismicity returns to the background stage, the Dq curve becomes smooth and nearly monofractal again. Therefore, the fluctuations in the Dq spectrum of an earthquake cluster associated with a large earthquake not only give a clear picture of the temporal alterations in the seismogenic regimes but also illustrate their variability through time for a large earthquake. In addition, the variation of the slope of Dq curve at q=0 in the foreshocks may be used as a precursor of a large earthquake. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]