1. External validation of machine learning algorithm predicting prolonged opioid prescriptions in opioid-naïve lumbar spine surgery patients using a Taiwanese cohort.
- Author
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Chen, Shin-Fu, Su, Chih-Chi, Huang, Chuan-Ching, Ogink, Paul T., Yen, Hung-Kuan, Groot, Olivier Q., and Hu, Ming-Hsiao
- Subjects
MACHINE learning ,SPINAL surgery ,LUMBAR vertebrae ,RECEIVER operating characteristic curves ,OPIOIDS ,DECISION making - Abstract
Identifying patients at risk of prolonged opioid use after surgery prompts appropriate prescription and personalized treatment plans. The Skeletal Oncology Research Group machine learning algorithm (SORG-MLA) was developed to predict the risk of prolonged opioid use in opioid-naive patients after lumbar spine surgery. However, its utility in a distinct country remains unknown. A Taiwanese cohort containing 2795 patients who were 20 years or older undergoing primary surgery for lumbar decompression from 2010 to 2018 were used to validate the SORG-MLA. Discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] and area under precision–recall curve [AUPRC]), calibration, overall performance (Brier score), and decision curve analysis were applied. Among 2795 patients, the prolonged opioid prescription rate was 5.2%. The validation cohort were older, more inpatient disposition, and more common pharmaceutical history of NSAIDs. Despite the differences, the SORG-MLA provided a good discriminative ability (AUROC of 0.71 and AURPC of 0.36), a good overall performance (Brier score of 0.044 compared to that of 0.039 in the developmental cohort). However, the probability of prolonged opioid prescription tended to be overestimated (calibration intercept of −0.07 and calibration slope of 1.45). Decision curve analysis suggested greater clinical net benefit in a wide range of clinical scenarios. The SORG-MLA retained good discriminative abilities and overall performances in a geologically and medicolegally different region. It was suitable for predicting patients in risk of prolonged postoperative opioid use in Taiwan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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