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Regular large-scale edifice collapse and regrowth is a common pattern during the long lifespans of andesitic stratovolcanoes worldwide. The >130 k.y. history of Mount Taranaki, New Zealand, is punctuated by at least 14 catastrophic collapses, producing debris avalanche deposits of 1 to >7.5 km³. The largest of these sudden events removed as much as one-third of the present-day equivalent cone. The resulting deposits show similar sedimentary and geomorphic features, suggesting similar proto-edifice characteristics, failure trigger mechanisms, and runout path conditions. Each collapse was followed by sustained renewed volcanism and cone regrowth, although there are no matching stepwise geochemical changes in the magma erupted; instead a stable, slowly evolving magmatic system has prevailed. Last Glacial climatic variations are also uncorrelated with the timing or magnitudes of edifice collapse. We demonstrate here that, if the magmatic composition erupted from stratovolcanoes is constant and basement geology conditions are stable, large-scale edifice collapse and the generation of catastrophic debris avalanches will be governed by the magma supply rate. Using a mass balance approach, a volume-frequency model can be applied to forecasting both the probable timing and volume of future edifi ce failure of such stratovolcanoes. In the Mount Taranaki case, the maximum potential size of a present collapse is estimated to be 7.9 km³, while the maximum interval before the next collapse is <16.2 k.y. The current annual collapse probability is ~0.00018, with the most likely collapse being a small one (<2 km³). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Volcanic domes may be emplaced rapidly and with few hazardous consequences, even at the summit of large stratovolcanoes. In this study the most recent activity of Mt. Taranaki in New Zealand is shown to have been a passive effusion of a c. 5.9millionm3 lava dome with minor associated explosions and little syn-eruptive hazard. This event, the Sisters eruption, appears to have been unrecorded by local indigenous populations but likely occurred between A.D. 1785 and 1820. The magma erupted is chemically distinct from the preceding A.D. 1755 Tahurangi eruption. Based on breakdown of hornblende crystal rims, the Sisters magma was probably only four days outside the hornblende stability field before cooling, and the magma ascended its last four km along a conduit at rates of 0.012ms−1. Based on dome surface morphology, a relatively low-viscosity magma is inferred. The dome remained in a metastable state for up to 70years following the eruption; eventually generating a large, cool (<350°C) collapse of at least 2millionm3 of rock, forming a highly hazardous mass flow that travelled over 5km. Factors contributing to the post-eruption dome instability include: its emplacement onto a steep flank of unconsolidated breccia or talus, possible oversteepening, fracturing due to spreading and subsidence, rapid cooling during heavy rain, and a hydrothermally altered inner core. The likely trigger for the collapse was a heavy rainstorm or an earthquake. Volcanic domes in the summit regions of volcanoes must be considered metastable and a potential source for hazardous, non-eruption related mass flows for many decades following their emplacement. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Acquiring accurate eruption records and understanding the volcanic processes behind eruption periodicity are important in the development of realistic hazard assessments and volcanic emergency planning. Here, we use a detailed study of the Holocene (<10,000 yr B.P.) record of Mount Taranaki (New Zealand) to explore the link between magmatic processes and eruption frequency, helping to demystify these outwardly complex andesitic magma systems. Six compositionally distinct magma batches were identified throughout the Holocene record at this volcano, many of which show similar evolutionary paths. The batches erupted on 1500--2000 yr time scales, which were synchronous with variations in eruptive frequency. We suggest that a progressively developing lower-crustal hot zone is the source of these magmatic batches. The largest-volume (>0.5 km³) eruptions appear to be statistically predictable because they tend to occur just prior to a period of repose, and they erupt the most strongly evolved magmas. The fundamental properties of magma-volcano systems identified here offer a paradigm for constraining the time scales and nature of magmatic processes, in addition to providing a foundation for more robust probabilistic time-varying hazard forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Catastrophic volcanic debris avalanches reshape volcanic edifices with up to half of pre-collapse cone volumes being removed. Deposition from this debris avalanche deposit often fills and inundates the surrounding landscape and may permanently change the distribution of drainage networks. On the weakly-incised Mt. Taranaki ring-plain, volcanic debris avalanche deposits typically form a large, wedge shape (in plan view), over all flat-lying fans. Following volcanic debris avalanches a period of intense re-sedimentation commonly begins on ring-plain areas, particularly in wet or temperate climates. This is exacerbated by large areas of denuded landscape, ongoing instability in the scarp/source region, damming of river/stream systems, and in some cases inherent instability of the volcanic debris avalanche deposits. In addition, on Mt. Taranaki, the collapse of a segment of the cone by volcanic debris avalanche often generates long periods of renewed volcanism, generating large volumes of juvenile tephra onto unstable and unvegetated slopes, or construction of new domes with associated rock falls and block-and-ash flows. The distal ring-plain impact from these post-debris avalanche conditions and processes is primarily accumulation of long run-out debris flow and hyperconcentrated flow deposits with a variety of lithologies and sedimentary character. Common to these post-debris avalanche units is evidence for high-water-content flows that are typically non-cohesive. Hence sedimentary variations in these units are high in lateral and longitudinal exposure in relation to local topography. The post-collapse deposits flank large-scale fans and hence similar lithological and chronological sequences can form on widely disparate sectors of the ring plain. These deposits on Mt. Taranaki provide a record of landscape response and ring-plain evolution in three stages that divide the currently identified Warea Formation: 1) the deposition of broad fans of material adjacent to the debris avalanche unit; 2) channel formation and erosion of Stage 1 deposits, primarily at the contact between debris avalanche deposits and the Stage 1 deposits and the refilling of these channels; and 3) the development of broad tabular sheet flows on top of the debris avalanche, leaving sediments between debris avalanche mounds. After a volcanic debris avalanche, these processes represent an ever changing and evolving hazard-scape with hazard maps needing to be regularly updated to take account of which stage the sedimentary system is in. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Eruption episodes, where a series of eruption events are generically related, can include the eruption of a wide spectrum of volcanic activity over decadal periods. This paper concentrates on the opening phases of an eruption episode which occurred approximately 1800 yrs BP from Mt Taranaki, New Zealand. These events spanned the eruption of differing bulk compositions and styles from two distinct vent locations; an andesitic sub-plinian eruption from the summit vent and a scoria cone-building eruption of basaltic magma from a satellite vent. Compositional profiles and zoning textures of plagioclase, amphibole and clinopyroxene phenocrysts from the opening andesitic event show evidence of magma mixing and subsequent crystallisation just prior to the initiation of the eruption episode. Titanomagnetite grain morphology and Ti variation suggest that the magma mixing event occurred within a few days to weeks before the eruption acting as a trigger for it. We present a magmatic model which is constrained by the petrological observations and eruptions of the episode. In this model magma differentiation at depth causes its rise and recharging of a mid-crustal magma storage area at 5–7 km. Although the recharging magma differed slightly in oxygen fugacity and temperature, it was compositionally and physically similar enough to the residing andesitic magma to allow efficient mixing. The petrological characteristics described here can be readily observed and enable identification of mixing events in other recent eruption episodes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Quantifying the potential ash fall hazards from re-awakening volcanoes is a topic of great interest. While methods for calculating the probability of eruptions, and for numerical simulation of tephra dispersal and fallout exist, event records at most volcanoes that re-awaken sporadically on decadal to millennial cycles are inadequate to develop rigorous forecasts of occurrence, much less eruptive volume. Here we demonstrate a method by which eruption records from radiocarbon-dated sediment cores can be used to derive forecasting models for ash fall impacts on electrical infrastructure. Our method is illustrated by an example from the Taranaki region of New Zealand. Radiocarbon dates, expressed as years before present (B.P.), are used to define an age-depth model, classifying eruption ages (with associated errors) for a circa 1500–10500 year B.P. record at Mt. Taranaki (New Zealand). In addition, data describing the youngest 1500 years of eruption activity is obtained from directly dated proximal deposits. Absence of trend and apparent independence in eruption intervals is consistent with a renewal model using a mix of Weibulls distributions, which was used to generate probabilistic forecasts of eruption recurrence. After establishing that interval length and tephra thickness were independent in the record, a thickness–volume relationship (from [Rhoades, D.A., Dowrick, D.J., Wilson, C.J.N., 2002. Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo volcano. Nat. Hazards, 26:147–174]) was inverted to provide a frequency–volume relationship for eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation of the thickness–volume relationship was then used to produce probable ash fall thicknesses at any chosen site. Several critical electrical infrastructure sites in the Taranaki Region were analysed. This region, being the only gas and condensate-producing area in New Zealand, is of national economic importance, with activities in and around the area depending on uninterrupted power supplies. Forecasts of critical ash thicknesses (1 mm wet and 2 mm dry) that may cause short-circuiting, surges or power shutdowns in substations show that the annual probabilities of serious impact are between ~0.5% and 27% over a 50 year period. It was also found that while large eruptions with high ash plumes tend to affect “expected” areas in relation to prevailing winds, the direction impacts of small ash falls are far less predictable. In the Taranaki case study, areas out of normal downwind directions, but close to the volcano, have probabilities of impact for critical thicknesses of 1–2 mm of around half to 60% of those in downwind directions and therefore should not be overlooked in hazard analysis. Through this method we are able to definitively show that the potential ash fall hazard to electrical infrastructure in this area is low in comparison to other natural threats, and provide a quantitative measure for use in risk analysis and budget prioritisation for hazard mitigation measures. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Mineral assemblages in volcanic rocks record both pre-eruptive conditions and changes experienced by magma as it rises. Titanomagnetite in andesitic magmas is especially sensitive to changes in temperature and oxygen fugacity immediately prior to and during eruptions. Two end-member eruption states can be distinguished by examining titanomagnetite textures in erupted rocks. Slow-ascent eruptions—characterized by near-stagnant magma bodies and slow effusion of lava domes—show solid-state exsolution of titano-hematite/ilmenite lamellae within titanomagnetite hosts. By contrast, fast-ascent eruptions—characterized by rapid chilling of magma in sub-Plinian eruptions—contain titanomagnetites without such exsolution features. This mineralogical distinction is particularly useful in examining very fine-grained distal tephra layers where other characteristic properties of the two eruptions types are not present. Such tephra records in lake deposits typically provide the most precise long-term eruption records from andesitic volcanoes. Using an example from Mount Taranaki, New Zealand, we show that by classifying eruption styles within such sequences, the underlying magmatic system processes at a volcano can be elucidated and separated from other environmental factors such as vent/crater configuration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lava domes pose a significant hazard to infrastructure, human lives and the environment when they collapse. Their stability is partly dictated by internal mechanical properties. Here, we present a detailed investigation into the lithology and composition of a < 250-year-old lava dome exposed at the summit of Mt. Taranaki in the western North Island of New Zealand. We also examined samples from 400 to 600-year-old block-and-ash flow deposits, formed by the collapse of earlier, short-lived domes extruded at the same vent. Rocks with variable porosity and groundmass crystallinity were compared using measured compressive and tensile strength, derived from deformation experiments performed at room temperature and low (3 MPa) confining pressures. Based on data obtained, porosity exerts the main control on rock strength and mode of failure. High porosity (> 23%) rocks show low rock strength (< 41 MPa) and dominantly ductile failure, whereas lower porosity rocks (5-23%) exhibit higher measured rock strengths (up to 278 MPa) and brittle failure. Groundmass crystallinity, porosity and rock strength are intercorrelated. High groundmass crystal content is inversely related to low porosity, implying crystallisation and degassing of a slowly undercooled magma that experienced rheological stiffening under high pressures deeper within the conduit. This is linked to a slow magma ascent rate and results in a lava dome with higher rock strength. Samples with low groundmass crystallinity are associated with higher porosity and lower rock strength, and represent magma that ascended more rapidly, with faster undercooling, and solidification in the upper conduit at low pressures. Our experimental results show that the inherent strength of rocks within a growing dome may vary considerably depending on ascent/emplacement rates, thus significantly affecting dome stability and collapse hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The long-term behaviour of andesite stratovolcanoes is characterised by a repetition of edifice growth phases followed by collapse. This cyclic pattern represents a natural frequency at varying timescales in the growth dynamics of stratovolcanoes worldwide. Around the >130 ka Mt. Taranaki (Egmont volcano), New Zealand, coastal–cliff successions at 20–40 km distance comprise repeating packages of lithologically and sedimentologically distinctive mass-flow deposits. Varying depositional mechanisms and source properties of these units record growth and collapse cycles of the central edifice. These are used to construct a model for cyclic volcaniclastic sedimentation in the surrounds of stratovolcanoes. During edifice-construction phases, thick packages of tabular, predominantly monolithologic, hyperconcentrated-flow and debris-flow deposits accumulate with intercalated tephra beds. The mass-flow units commonly contain large proportions of fresh pumice or juvenile-lithic andesite. Intervals of quiescence separating eruptive periods are characterised by landscape re-adjustment, accompanied by deposition of fluvial and aeolian sediments, along with steady accretion of medial ash. In contrast, brief episodes of destruction are marked by wide-spread, distinctively clay-rich, polylithologic debris-avalanche deposits and related marginal debris flow units. The growth stages can be terminated by an eruption-triggered sector collapse, or by external forces once the edifice exceeds a critical stable height or profile (dependent on eruptive style and local geo-tectonic conditions). Once the edifice becomes metastable, regional tectonic earthquakes or shallow-level intrusion events are likely triggers for collapse. Although the resulting debris avalanches represent the greatest individual hazard from such andesite stratovolcanoes, their frequency is relatively low compared with other types of mass-flows generated during edifice-growth phases. Accurate forecasts of future hazard from mass-flow events are therefore dependent on recognition of both the frequency of a stratovolcano''s growth cycle and its current position in that cycle. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]