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Background: System dynamics (SD) modelling can inform policy decisions under Thailand's Universal Health Coverage. We report on this thinking approach to Thailand's strategic health workforce planning for the next 20 years (2018-2037).Methods: A series of group model building (GMB) sessions involving 110 participants from multi-sectors of Thailand's health systems was conducted in 2017 and 2018. We facilitated policymakers, administrators, practitioners and other stakeholders to co-create a causal loop diagram (CLD) representing a shared understanding of why the health workforce's demands and supplies in Thailand were mismatched. A stock and flow diagram (SFD) was also co-created for testing the consequences of policy options by simulation modelling.Results: The simulation modelling found hospital utilisation created a vicious cycle of constantly increasing demands for hospital care and a constant shortage of healthcare providers. Moreover, hospital care was not designed for effectively dealing with the future demands of ageing populations and prevalent chronic illness. Hence, shifting emphasis to professions that can provide primary care, intermediate care, long-term care, palliative care, and end-of-life care can be more effective.Conclusions: Our SD modelling confirmed that shifting the care models to address the changing health demands can be a high-leverage policy of health workforce planning, although very difficult to implement in the short term. of health workforce planning, although very difficult to implement in the short term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sugar‐sweetened beverage tax (SSB tax) has been proposed in Thailand in an attempt to reduce sugar content in beverages and sugar consumption among the Thai population. However, it is uncertain if the SSB tax will translate into lower sugar consumption and consequently improve dental caries. This paper aims to elicit and represent the complex dynamic relationships between SSB tax, sugar consumption, and dental caries in Thailand. A group model building approach, based on the systems modelling methodology of system thinking, was used to engage stakeholders to develop a causal loop diagram (causal map) to elucidate the dynamic interrelationships of SSB tax on sugar consumption and dental caries. The causal loop diagram identified seven balancing feedback loops and one reinforcing feedback loop. The balancing loops operate to reduce the prevalence of dental caries and the impact of SSB tax on SSB consumption, while the reinforcing loop operates to maintain the share of SSB consumption among the Thai population. The main insight from this study suggests that implementing SSB tax alone will not achieve the desired oral health outcomes, without combining it with other non‐tariff interventions—such as oral health education and improved access to oral health services. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]