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In the context of the global decline in the capacity of ecosystem services (ESs) to meet increasing human demands, assessing and quantifying ESs is crucial for ecological policy formulation. To address this, our study employs an adjusted land-use matrix method and the patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model for a quantitative analysis of the ES balance in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei–Inner Mongolia (JJJM) region from 2000 to 2020, projecting to 2040. Focusing on the JJJM region, a focal area for ecological policy exhibits significant socioeconomic disparities, revealing a synergistic interplay in the ESs balance. Areas with high vegetation cover, like forests and grasslands, demonstrate an elevated ESs balance, with Inner Mongolia having the highest total ESs balance at 71.40. Conversely, highly urbanized areas, such as Beijing and Tianjin, face deficits in the ESs balance, with Tianjin recording the lowest at 17.83. Our results show an upward trend in total ESs balance in the JJJM region (slope: 0.08 year−1). In particular, regulating services are declining (slope: −0.04 year−1), cultural services are increasing (slope: 0.08 year−1), and provisioning services remain relatively stable. Projecting to 2040, our analysis indicates a slight decline in ESs balance, attributed to Inner Mongolia's urban expansion. This emphasizes the need for industrial transfers and proactive urbanization promotion to enhance ESs balance and support sustainable management and ecological civilization development in the JJJM region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]