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Aeolian deposits on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its surroundings provide crucial source materials for the Asian dust cycle, which significantly affects Asian and global ecosystems and climate. However, it is unclear how the dust dynamics of the TP and its surroundings are linked to Earth's climate system. To address this issue, we examined the grain size and accumulation rate of six Holocene aeolian sections on the southern TP (a new, well-dated high-resolution section, two relatively low-resolution sections, and three published sections) and combined them with equivalent aeolian sedimentary records from eastern arid central Asia. The results suggest that dust activity in both regions decreased during the early to middle Holocene and then increased in the late Holocene. We hypothesize that the primary drivers of Holocene dust activity in both regions are similar. Cold-season insolation, as the primary driving factor, combined with ice volume and atmospheric CO 2 concentration, collectively controlled the regional temperature, which determined the near-surface wind intensity via its influence on the TP High and Siberian High, respectively, thus ultimately controlling the regional dust activity. In this context, we project that dust activity on the TP and its neighboring areas will decrease under warm scenarios in the 21st century. Overall, our findings provide an extensive overview of the past, present, and future scenarios of Asian dust activity, especially of the TP dust. • Holocene aeolian records on the southern TP and in eastern ACA were synthesized. • Dust activity decreased in early-middle Holocene and increased in late Holocene. • This pattern of dust activity was dominated by cold season temperature. • Dust activity will weaken under warm scenarios in the future. • A comprehensive analysis of the past, present, and future scenarios of TP dust [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]