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This study assessed the long-run (LR) and short-run (SR) impacts of climatic and non-climatic factors, i.e., CO2 emissions (CO2e), average level of temperature (ALT), average level of precipitation (ALP), area harvested of wheat and rice crops (AHW and (AHR), domestic credit (DCR), and agricultural labor (ALB) on wheat and rice production (WP and RP) in Turkey by using annual time series data ranging from 1980 to 2016 and by employing several econometric techniques. The autoregressive distributed lag-bounds (ARDL) approach and the Johansen and Juselius cointegration (JJC) test confirmed a valid long-term connection among underlying variables. The estimation results from the ARDL model reveal that climatic factors such as CO2 emissions and temperature adversely affected wheat production in the long run as well as in the short run, whereas precipitation positively improved wheat production in both periods. Further results indicate that non-climatic factors like area harvested of wheat and domestic credit positively and significantly enhanced wheat production in the long run and short run. Similarly, CO2 emissions also adversely affected rice production in both periods, while temperature and precipitation positively contributed towards rice production in both cases. In addition, area harvested of rice positively and significantly boosted rice production in the long run as well as in the short run, while domestic credit negatively influenced rice production in the long run but in the short run positively improved rice production. Additionally, the outcomes of the VECM Granger Causality for both rice and wheat production confirm that both climatic and non-climatic variables have a strong influence on the production of both crops. This study found that climate change has a deleterious influence on both wheat and rice production; therefore, the study suggests that temperature-resistant varieties of both crops should be developed and introduced by agricultural research institutions. In addition to this, up-to-date information is more needed related to climate change, and in the farming communities, it should be provided by agricultural extension workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research has examined the dynamic linkages among climate change factors, such as CO2 emissions, temperature, rainfall, and cereal yield in Turkey from 1968 to 2014. At first step, we tested stationary properties of the climatic factors and crop yield by using both traditional and breakpoint unit root tests. After the confirmation of given properties, we used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to capture the dynamic relationship among the variables in the given span of time. The empirical results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship that exists between climate change factors and cereal yield. CO2 emissions and average temperature have a diverse effect on the cereal yield, whereas average rainfall has a positive effect on the cereal yield in both the long run and short run. To check the causality, we use the Granger causality test that reveals a significant effect of climate change variables on the cereal yield. The unidirectional causal link is significant among temperature and rainfall factors. The results show that the cereal yield is affected by more climate factors like rain fall and temperature due to CO2 emissions as compared to land and labor use. Based on the findings of the study, few suggestions have been made to address the climate change factors. Devise agriculture-specific adaptation policy for the farmers to build their capacity and resilience to tackle climate changes, for example, farm practices. Agriculture research and development should work on cereal crop varieties that can tolerate the high temperature and precipitation. These policies could help the agriculture sector to sustain production and allocation efficiency in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]