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In recent time, Turkey could be said to have experienced different levels of Economic Risk, Financial Risk, and Political Risk from low- to high-level. This study investigates the linkage between country risks, namely Financial Risk, Economic Risk, and Political Risk (FEP risk) in Turkey for the period 1984Q1 to 2019Q1 by using threshold cointegration, Markow-switching regression (given the nonlinearity and structural breaks observed in the time series variables), and frequency domain causality approaches. The empirical findings of this study reveal that (i) nonlinear cointegration between Economic Risk, Financial Risk, and Political Risk in Turkey is statistically significant given the evidence of threshold cointegration test, which determines the structural breaks endogenously; (ii) there is positive linkage among the component of country risk at different volatility periods; (iii) there is a significant Granger causal linkage between Economic Risk, Financial Risk and Political Risk at the different frequency levels. The study is likely to open debate about the literature since the study concludes with a discussion on short-run and long-run implications for economic, political, and financial stabilises, thus offering policy suggestions for the policymakers in Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impacts of country-specific risk, namely, political and economic risks, global economic policy uncertainty, and also macroeconomic factors on the price of Turkish tourism firms' stocks during the 2000 to 2017 period. By considering the structural break, the results underscore that a rise of political and economic risks, global economic policy uncertainty, and real exchange rate correspond with decreasing stock prices in the long-run. Moreover, the short-run results show that the real exchange rate and global economic policy uncertainty impact stock prices negatively though stock prices react positively to a rise of political risk. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that attempted to conduct this nexus, and findings have important implications for managers, investors, and assets analysts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the relationships among the political, financial and economic risks in Turkey using the PRS Group Risks indices covering the period from 1984Q1 to 2018Q4. The nature and directions of the relationship were examined using the innovative Quantile-on-Quantile (Q-Q) regression and Quantile Granger-causality test. Our findings revealed a positive and significant influence of economic risk on financial risk, as well as a positive and significant influence financial risk on economic risk, both at different quantiles. Moreover, while economic risk was found to positively influence political risk at different quantiles, the influence of political risk on economic risk was found to be negative at different quantiles. In addition, the findings on the direction of causal relationship show bidirectional causality between economic risk and political risks, financial and political risks, and financial and political risks in the 0.25 quantiles. Similarly, at 0.75 quantiles, a bidirectional causality between political and economic risks was found, as well as a unidirectional causality was found running from economic risk to financial risk, and from economic risk to financial risk. Meanwhile, at the 0.5 quantile, an evidence of a unidirectional causality was found running from economic risk to political risk and from economic risk to financial risk. Finally, the paper suggested policy directions based on the findings for the Turkish policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of economic, financial and political risks on CDS premium of Turkey. For this purpose, we examine asymmetric effects of economic, financial and political risk variables on Turkey's CDS by employing nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model for the period 2000:10-2020:06. Our findings are two-fold. First, we find that both economic and financial risks have asymmetric effects on CDS premium, while political risks have symmetric effect on CDS. Second, we find that increases in financial risks raise CDS premium more than that of economic risks, while decreases in economic risks reduce CDS premium more than that of financial risks. The empirical results imply that economic reforms appear to be more efficient than the financial recovery measures in reducing CDS premium of Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to explore the causal relationship between economic risk and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows for the case of Turkey. With the aim of establishing robust findings for the research in mind, both traditional and modern causality techniques are utilized; time domain Granger (1969, "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods." Econometrica 37: 424–438.), Toda and Yamamoto (1995, "Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes." Journal of Econometrics 66 (1–2): 225–250.), Fourier Toda-Yamamoto and frequency domain Breitung and Candelon (2006, "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach." Journal of Econometrics 132 (2): 363–378.) spectral causality test. Our empirical findings reveal that; economic risk changes in Turkey significantly lead to changes in FDI inflows. However, there is no evidence of causality running from FDI to economic risk. The findings imply that economic risk is an essential determinant of FDI inflows in Turkey. Our findings are compatible with historical macroeconomic developments in Turkey and imply important policy implications. The results of this study can be generalized for other emerging economies that have similar macroeconomic environments, in order to create useful policy implications regarding FDI inflow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the relationships between disaggregated country risk ratings and stock market movements in Turkey, using the autoregressive distributed lag approach. The long- and short-run relationships between stock market movements and political risk, financial risk, and economic risk components of country risk ratings are investigated. The presence of a long-run relationship between Turkey's risk ratings and stock market movements is confirmed. In the long run, Turkey's three economic, financial, and political risk rating components are the forcing variables of stock market movements. However, in the short run only the reduced political and financial risk rating components have positive and significant impact on market movements. Policy implications are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]