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A national population-based malformation registry (BNR) has been in operation since 1979 in Belarus, one of the countries most heavily exposed to the contamination from the Chernobyl accident of 26 April 1986. We describe its methodology and its compliance with established criteria, evaluate the completeness of its reporting, and analyze the data collected in four administrative regions with contrasting contamination levels from 1983 through 1999.Nine easily diagnosed malformations have been monitored since 1983. Reporting completeness exceeds 85% for all periods and all regions. In all periods, the prevalence at birth of these malformations was lower in the most contaminated regions and showed a similar positive time trend in areas of low and high contamination.We conclude that the BNR is a reliable tool for studying the possible effects on congenital malformations caused by the Chernobyl accident. Although the trend we observed may be explained by better ascertainment and prenatal diagnosis, a real increase cannot be ruled out. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

From 1975 to 1995, the incidence of thyroid cancer in the French population increased by a factor of 5.2 in men and 2.7 in women, thereby raising public concerns about its association with the nuclear accident at Chernobyl. A study performed at the request of French health authorities sought to quantify the potential risk of thyroid cancer associated with the Chernobyl fallout in France in order to determine if this risk could be observed through an epidemiological approach. The study focused on the most exposed population: those living in eastern France and younger than 15 y at the time of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident (26 April 1986). The number of spontaneous thyroid cancers in this population was predicted from French cancer registry data, and the thyroid doses were estimated from all available data about contamination in France. Associated risks were calculated with different risk models, all based on a linear no-threshold dose-effect relationship. Under this hypothesis, from 1.3 to 22 excess thyroid cancer cases were predicted for the 199 1-2000 period, compared with the 212 spontaneous cases (0.5 to 10.5%) predicted, and from 11.2 to 55.2 excess cases were predicted for 1991-2015, compared with the 1,342 spontaneous cases (0.8 to 4.1%) predicted. These risk calculations indicate that the Chernobyl fallout cannot explain the entire increase in thyroid cancers in France, and that it is improbable that an epidemiological study could demonstrate such an excess. The surveillance of thyroid cancers in France should be enhanced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increase in the thyroid cancer incidence in France observed over the last 20 years has raised public concern about its association with the 1986 nuclear power plant accident at Chernobyl. At the request of French authorities, a first study sought to quantify the possible risk of thyroid cancer associated with the Chernobyl fallout in France. This study suffered from two limitations. The first involved the lack of knowledge of spontaneous thyroid cancer incidence rates (in the absence of exposure), which was especially necessary to take their trends into account for projections over time; the second was the failure to consider the uncertainties. The aim of this article is to enhance the initial thyroid cancer risk assessment for the period 1991-2007 in the area of France most exposed to the fallout (i.e., eastern France) and thereby mitigate these limitations. We consider the changes over time in the incidence of spontaneous thyroid cancer and conduct both uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The number of spontaneous thyroid cancers was estimated from French cancer registries on the basis of two scenarios: one with a constant incidence, the other using the trend observed. Thyroid doses were estimated from all available data about contamination in France from Chernobyl fallout. Results from a 1995 pooled analysis published by Ron et al. were used to determine the dose-response relation. Depending on the scenario, the number of spontaneous thyroid cancer cases ranges from 894 (90% CI: 869-920) to 1,716 (90% CI: 1,691-1,741). The number of excess thyroid cancer cases predicted ranges from 5 (90% UI: 1-15) to 63 (90% UI: 12-180). All of the assumptions underlying the thyroid cancer risk assessment are discussed.

Thyroid cancer incidence in the Bryansk region, the most contaminated area of Russia after the Chernobyl accident, is analyzed for the residents aged 15-69 y at the time of the accident (about 1 million persons according to the 1989 census) for the period from 1986 to 1998. Sex and age standardized incidence rates are presented and compared to the whole Russian population rates (SIR analysis). Also, a geographical correlation analysis is performed for incidence rates and mean thyroid doses at the district level, which provides a basis for preliminary estimation of radiation associated risks for the period 1991-1998 (to allow for a potential five year latent period). Thyroid doses were estimated based on the State official document "Methodology for reconstruction of dose from iodine radioisotopes in residents of the Russian Federation exposed to radioactive contamination as a result of the Chernobyl accident in 1986" (2000). Altogether, 1,051 thyroid cancer cases were detected in the Bryansk oncological dispensary from 1986 to 1998 and 769 from 1991 to 1998. Histological confirmation was available for 87% and 95% of these cases, respectively. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) were 1.27 (95% CI = 0.92, 1.73) for the period 1986-1990 and 1.45 (95% CI = 1.20, 1.73) for the period 1991-1998 for males and 1.94 (95% CI = 1.70, 2.20) and 1.96 (95% CI = 1.82, 2.1) for females. The excess relative risk per 1 Gy (using external control) estimate for the period 1991-1998 was -0.4 (95% CI = -3.5, 2.7), -1.3 (95% CI = -2.8, 0.1) for males and females, respectively, and -0.6 (95% CI = -2.1, 0.8) for both sexes. Using internal controls, the excess relative risk (ERR(1Gy)) per unit dose of 1 Gy was found to be 0.7 with 95% CI (-2.3, 5.2) for males, -0.9 with 95% CI (-2.4, 0.8) for females and 0.0 with 95% CI (-1.4, 1.7) for males and females together. These results are discussed in the light of the quality of information available on thyroid cancer cases and screening campaigns carried out after the Chernobyl accident.

This review examines the epidemiologic and experimental studies into the possible role ionizing radiation might play in Down Syndrome (trisomy 21). It is prompted by a report of a temporal cluster of cases of this chromosomal disorder observed in West Berlin exactly 9 mo after the radioactive cloud from Chernobyl passed. In approximately 90% of cases, Down Syndrome is due to the nondisjunction of chromosome 21, most often in the oocyte, which may be exposed to ionizing radiation during two separate periods: before the completion of the first meiosis or around the time of ovulation. Most epidemiologic studies into trisomies and exposure to ionizing radiation examine only the first period; the Chernobyl cluster is related to the second. Analysis of these epidemiologic results indicates that the possibility that ionizing radiation might be a risk factor in Down Syndrome cannot be excluded. The experimental results, although sometimes contradictory, demonstrate that irradiation may induce nondisjunction in oogenesis and spermatogenesis; they cannot, however, be easily extrapolated to humans. The weaknesses of epidemiologic studies into the risk factors for Down Syndrome at birth (especially the failure to take into account the trisomy cases leading to spontaneous abortion) are discussed. We envisage the utility and feasibility of new studies, in particular among women exposed to prolonged or repeated artificially-produced ionizing radiation.

The experience of the Chernobyl accident has shown the necessity of being prepared for epidemiological assessment of the death consequences of a nuclear or a radiological accident. We discuss the contribution of epidemiology in such situations, in addition to the existing tools designed to assess or manage radiological risks. From a decisional point of view, three issues are distinguished: the protection of the different population groups against ionizing radiations, the achievement of health care and the communication with the public and media. We discuss the input of epidemiological tools in both perspectives. Epidemiology may also contribute to the analysis of health events that may be observed after an accident, i.e. to assess whether these events are not statistical artifacts, whether they are an effect of the exposure to the ionizing radiations or a non specific consequence of any accident. Finally, epidemiological studies should be carried out to improve our knowledge on ionizing radiations effects with a special consideration given to the dose-effect relationships. Examples of past nuclear accidents are used to discuss these issues. The last part of this paper is focused on different research issues that should be developed for preparing epidemiological plans for nuclear accidents.