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Purpose: No known UK empirical research has investigated prospective associations between ambient air pollutants and conduct problems in adolescence. Ethnic minority children are disproportionately exposed to structural factors that could moderate any observed relationships. This prospective study examined whether exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations is associated with conduct problems in adolescence, and whether racism or ethnicity moderate such associations. Methods: Longitudinal associations between annual mean estimated PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations at the residential address and trajectories of conduct problems, and the potential influence of racism and ethnicity were examined school-based sample of 4775 participants (2002–2003 to 2005–2006) in London, using growth curve models. Results: Overall, in the fully adjusted model, exposure to lower concentrations of PM2.5 and NO2 was associated with a decrease in conduct problems during adolescence, while exposure to higher concentrations was associated with a flattened trajectory of conduct symptoms. Racism amplified the effect of PM2.5 (β = 0.05 (95% CI 0.01 to 0.10, p < 0.01)) on adolescent trajectories of conduct problems over time. At higher concentrations of PM2.5, there was a divergence of trajectories of adolescent conduct problems between ethnic minority groups, with White British and Black Caribbean adolescents experiencing an increase in conduct problems over time. Conclusion: These findings suggest that the intersections between air pollution, ethnicity, and racism are important influences on the development of conduct problems in adolescence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent United Kingdom (UK) Environment Act consultation had the intention of setting two targets for PM 2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm), one related to meeting an annual average concentration and the second to reducing population exposure. As part of the consultation, predictions of PM 2.5 concentrations in 2030 were made by combining European Union (EU) and UK government's emissions forecasts, with the Climate Change Committee's (CCC) Net Zero vehicle forecasts, and in London with the addition of local policies based on the London Environment Strategy (LES). Predictions in 2018 showed 6.4% of the UK's area and 82.6% of London's area had PM 2.5 concentrations above the World Health Organization (WHO) interim target of 10 μg m -3 , but by 2030, over 99% of the UK's area was predicted to be below it. However, kerbside concentrations in London and other major cities were still at risk of exceeding 10 μg m -3 . With local action on PM 2.5 in London, population weighted concentrations showed full compliance with the WHO interim target of 10 μg m -3 in 2030. However, predicting future PM 2.5 concentrations and interpreting the results will always be difficult and uncertain for many reasons, such as imperfect models and the difficulty in estimating future emissions. To help understand the sensitivity of the model's PM 2.5 predictions in 2030, current uncertainty was quantified using PM 2.5 measurements and showed large areas in the UK that were still at risk of exceeding the WHO interim target despite the model predictions being below 10 μg m -3 . Our results do however point to the benefits that policy at EU, UK and city level can have on achieving the WHO interim target of 10 μg m -3 . These results were submitted to the UK Environment Act consultation. Nevertheless, the issues addressed here could be applicable to other European cities., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Crown Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Climate change poses a dangerous and immediate threat to the health of populations in the UK and worldwide. We aimed to model different scenarios to assess the health co-benefits that result from mitigation actions., Methods: In this modelling study, we combined a detailed techno-economic energy systems model (UK TIMES), air pollutant emission inventories, a sophisticated air pollution model (Community Multi-scale Air Quality), and previously published associations between concentrations and health outcomes. We used four scenarios and focused on the air pollution implications from fine particulate matter (PM 2·5 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and ozone. The four scenarios were baseline, which assumed no further climate actions beyond those already achieved and did not meet the UK's Climate Change Act (at least an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 2050 compared with 1990) target; nuclear power, which met the Climate Change Act target with a limited increase in nuclear power; low-greenhouse gas, which met the Climate Change Act target without any policy constraint on nuclear build; and a constant scenario that held 2011 air pollutant concentrations constant until 2050. We predicted the health and economic impacts from air pollution for the scenarios until 2050, and the inequalities in exposure across different socioeconomic groups., Findings: NO 2 concentrations declined leading to 4 892 000 life-years saved for the nuclear power scenario and 7 178 000 life-years saved for the low-greenhouse gas scenario from 2011 to 2154. However, the associations that we used might overestimate the effects of NO 2 itself. PM 2·5 concentrations in Great Britain are predicted to decrease between 42% and 44% by 2050 compared with 2011 in the scenarios that met the Climate Change Act targets, especially those from road traffic and off-road machinery. These reductions in PM 2·5 are tempered by a 2035 peak (and subsequent decline) in biomass (wood burning), and by a large, projected increase in future demand for transport leading to potential increases in non-exhaust particulate matter emissions. The potential use of biomass in poorly controlled technologies to meet the Climate Change Act commitments would represent an important missed opportunity (resulting in 472 000 more life-years lost from PM 2·5 in the low-greenhouse gas scenario and 1 122 000 more life-years lost in the nuclear power scenario from PM 2·5 than the baseline scenario). Although substantial overall improvements in absolute amounts of exposure are seen compared with 2011, these outcomes mask the fact that health inequalities seen (in which socioeconomically disadvantaged populations are among the most exposed) are projected to be maintained up to 2050., Interpretation: The modelling infrastructure created will help future researchers explore a wider range of climate policy scenarios, including local, European, and global scenarios. The need to strengthen the links between climate change policy objectives and public health imperatives, and the benefits to societal wellbeing that might result is urgent., Funding: National Institute for Health Research., (Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)