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Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of change in tree growth can be quantified. We assessed the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities calculated from the weather generator data and tree species vulnerabilities using Ecological Site Classification model across Britain. We evaluated the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species ( Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur), which cover around 59 % (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across the lowlands and uplands. We show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using B1, A1B, and A1FI IPCC emissions scenarios, but varied spatially. We found a maximum reduction of 94 % but also a maximum increase of 56 % in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the state-managed forests for all three species in the 2080s is estimated to decrease due to drought by 42 % in the lowlands and by 32 % in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the state-managed forests in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the effect of ozone (O3) deposition on ground level O3 concentrations and subsequent human health and ecosystem risk under hot summer "heat wave" type meteorological events. Under such conditions, extended drought can effectively "turn off" the O3 vegetation sink leading to a substantial increase in ground level O3 concentrations. Two models that have been used for human health (the CMAQ chemical transport model) and ecosystem (the DO3SE O3 deposition model) risk assessment are combined to provide a powerful policy tool capable of novel integrated assessments of O3 risk using methods endorsed by the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. This study investigates 2006, a particularly hot and dry year during which a heat wave occurred over the summer across much of the UK and Europe. To understand the influence of variable O3 dry deposition three different simulations were investigated during June and July: (i) actual conditions in 2006, (ii) conditions that assume a perfect vegetation sink for O3 deposition and (iii) conditions that assume an extended drought period that reduces the vegetation sink to a minimum. The risks of O3 to human health, assessed by estimating the number of days during which running 8 h mean O3 concentrations exceeded 100 μgm-3, show that on average across the UK, there is a difference of 16 days exceedance of the threshold between the perfect sink and drought conditions. These average results hide local variation with exceedances between these two scenarios reaching as high as 20 days in the East Midlands and eastern UK. Estimates of acute exposure effects show that O3 removed from the atmosphere through dry deposition during the June and July period would have been responsible for approximately 460 premature deaths. Conversely, reduced O3 dry deposition tion will decrease the amount of O3 taken up by vegetation and, according to flux-based assessments of vegetation damage, will lead to a reduction in the impact of O3 on vegetation across the UK. The new CMAQ-DO3SE model was evaluated by comparing observation vs. modelled estimates of various health related metrics with data from both urban and rural sites across the UK; although these comparisons showed reasonable agreement there were some biases in the model predictions with attributable deaths at urban sites being over predicted by a small margin, the converse was true for rural sites. The study emphasises the importance of accurate estimates of O3 deposition both for human health and ecosystem risk assessments. Extended periods of drought and heat wave type conditions are likely to occur with more frequency in coming decades, therefore understanding the importance of these effects will be crucial to inform the development of appropriate national and international policy to mitigate against the worst consequences of this air pollutant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Carefully designed green roofs have the potential to be used as mitigation for habitats lost at ground level. The development of plant assemblages on two green roofs designed to emulate diverse brownfield habitats (brown roofs), by using recycled demolition aggregate as part of a low-fertility growth substrate, were studied over the first four years of their development. The cover-abundance of flowering plants and habitat structural components (e.g. bare ground, moss) were measured on the Domin-Krajina scale within all identified microhabitats. Drought disturbance was one of the main controlling factors on assemblage development. Annual plants were abundant and successful in the first growth season, and thereafter only re-appeared in any numbers following drought disturbances in subsequent years. Moss and Sedum acre L. increased through the study period until these plants dominated coverage. The cover-abundance of perennial wildflower species was strongly influenced by drought disturbance. The influence of drought disturbance varied between different brown roof microhabitats, with plant assemblages in coarser and less fertile microhabitats more resistant to these disturbances. Observed responses to drought were consistent with the following two hypotheses: (i) Areas of coarse substrate can act as disturbance refugia for plants during drought by helping preserve pockets of water under large clasts and within absorbent materials such as brick. (ii) The plant assemblages living in areas of more fertile substrates, which grow more luxuriantly when water availability is high, are more vulnerable to drought disturbance. Green roofs should be designed to include a range of substrate types to create several microhabitats that will collectively support more species than any single microhabitat. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract Aim We examined the effects of drought in the summer of 1995 and the subsequent year on contrasting species of plants, moths, butterflies and ground beetles. We tested whether population increases were associated with: (a) species of warm environments (b) species of dry environments (c) species with rapid reproduction (d) species with high rates of dispersal. Location The study was conducted at Environmental Change Network (ECN) sites throughout Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Methods Climate monitoring, recording of plant species in permanent plots, transect walking for butterflies, light trapping for moths and pitfall trapping for carabid beetles were used. Results There was an overall increase in the number of species recorded in permanent vegetation plots between 1994 and 1996, principally among the annual and biennial vascular plants, probably as a result of gap colonization in grasslands. Most butterfly and moth species increased between 1994 and 1995. Among the butterflies, a southern distribution and high mobility were associated with species tending to increase throughout the period 1994–96, whereas declining species tended to have a northern distribution. A similar number of carabid beetle species increased as decreased in the period 1994–96; decreasing species tended to be associated with lower temperatures and wetter soils. Conclusions Current climate change scenarios indicate that the incidence of droughts in the United Kingdom will increase. A series of dry, hot summers could lead to a rapid change in the population of some species although others, including many plants, may be more resilient. This may lead to complex changes in ecosystems and needs to be considered in planning conservation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]