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Work to estimate the spatial/temporal spread of pandemic influenza across the UK and assessing of the relative impact of different intervention strategies on the estimated burden of disease is being conducted at the Health Protection Agency-Porton Down in order to aid the formulation of the UK pandemic influenza plan. Two separate modelling strategies have been employed: a static model to assess levels of morbidity and mortality within different age and risk groups and a spatial-temporal model for spatially referenced intervention strategies. Here, we show how these modelling strategies are being applied and discuss how they can be combined to further extend their utility. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Focuses on the transmission potentials of smallpox in contemporary populations in Europe and the United States. Analysis of smallpox epidemics; Lists of places with significant epidemics; Estimation of current vaccination coverage.