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Background: In 2020, the Lancet Commission identified 12 risk factors as priorities for prevention of dementia, and other studies identified APOE e4/e4 genotype and family history of Alzheimer's disease strongly associated with dementia outcomes; however, it is unclear how robust these relationships are across dementia subtypes and analytic scenarios. Specification curve analysis (SCA) is a new tool to probe how plausible analytical scenarios influence outcomes., Methods: We evaluated the heterogeneity of odds ratios for 12 risk factors reported from the Lancet 2020 report and two additional strong associated non-modifiable factors (APOE e4/e4 genotype and family history of Alzheimer's disease) with dementia outcomes across 450,707 UK Biobank participants using SCA with 5357 specifications across dementia subtypes (outcomes) and analytic models (e.g., standard demographic covariates such as age or sex and/or 14 correlated risk factors)., Results: SCA revealed variable dementia risks by subtype and age, with associations for TBI and APOE e4/e4 robust to model specification; in contrast, diabetes showed fluctuating links with dementia subtypes. We found that unattributed dementia participants had similar risk factor profiles to participants with defined subtypes., Conclusions: We observed heterogeneity in the risk of dementia, and estimates of risk were influenced by the inclusion of a combination of other modifiable risk factors; non-modifiable demographic factors had a minimal role in analytic heterogeneity. Future studies should report multiple plausible analytic scenarios to test the robustness of their association. Considering these combinations of risk factors could be advantageous for the clinical development and evaluation of novel screening models for different types of dementia., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Aims/hypothesis: We sought to quantify the relationship between morning, afternoon or evening physical activity and consistency (e.g. routine) and risk of type 2 diabetes., Methods: A cohort of 93,095 UK Biobank participants (mean age 62 years) without a history of type 2 diabetes wore a wrist-worn accelerometer for 1 week. We converted accelerometer information to estimate metabolic equivalent of task (MET), summing MET h of total physical activity completed within three intra-day time segments (morning, afternoon and evening). We quantified physical activity consistency as the SD of participants' daily total physical activity. We ultimately associated each of the following with incident type 2 diabetes: (1) morning, afternoon or evening 'time-segmented' MET h per week; and (2) consistency. We also considered moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and vigorous physical activity (VPA) in association with type 2 diabetes incidence., Results: When considering MET as the physical activity measure, we observed protective associations of morning (HR 0.90 [95% CI 0.86, 0.93], p=7×10 -8 ) and afternoon (HR 0.91 [95% CI 0.87, 0.95], p=1×10 -5 ) but did not have evidence for evening physical activity (HR 0.95 [95% CI 0.90, 1.00], p=0.07) with type 2 diabetes. There was no difference between MET-measured morning and afternoon physical activity. Our substitution model highlighted the importance of adjusting for lifestyle factors (e.g. sleep time and diet); the effect of a substitution between afternoon and evening physical activity was attenuated after adjustment for lifestyle variables. Consistency of MET-measured physical activity was not associated with type 2 diabetes (p=0.07). MVPA and VPA were associated with decreased risk for type 2 diabetes at all times of the day., Conclusions/interpretation: Total metabolic equivalents of physical activity in the morning and afternoon had a protective effect on diabetes risk and evening activity was not associated with diabetes. Consistency of physical activity did not play a role in decreasing risk for diabetes. Vigorous activity is associated with lower risk no matter the time of day of activity., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Aims: To investigate whether the cumulative exposure risks of incident T2D are shared with other common chronic diseases., Research Design and Methods: We first establish and report the cross-sectional prevalence, cross-sectional co-prevalence, and incidence of seven T2D-associated chronic diseases [hypertension, atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and chronic kidney and liver diseases] in the UK Biobank. We use published weights of genetic variants and exposure variables to derive the T2D polygenic (PGS) and polyexposure (PXS) risk scores and test their associations to incident diseases., Results: PXS was associated with higher levels of clinical risk factors including BMI, systolic blood pressure, blood glucose, triglycerides, and HbA1c in individuals without overt or diagnosed T2D. In addition to predicting incident T2D, PXS and PGS were significantly and positively associated with the incidence of all 7 other chronic diseases. There were 4% and 8% of individuals in the bottom deciles of PXS and PGS, respectively, who were prediabetic at baseline but had low risks of T2D and other chronic diseases. Compared to the remaining population, individuals in the top deciles of PGS and PXS had particularly high risks of developing chronic diseases. For instance, the hazard ratio of COPD and obesity for individuals in the top T2D PXS deciles was 2.82 (95% CI 2.39-3.35, P = 4.00 × 10 -33 ) and 2.54 (95% CI 2.24-2.87, P = 9.86 × 10 -50 ), respectively, compared to the remaining population. We also found that PXS and PGS were both significantly (P < 0.0001) and positively associated with the total number of incident diseases., Conclusions: T2D shares polyexposure risks with other common chronic diseases. Individuals with an elevated genetic and non-genetic risk of T2D also have high risks of cardiovascular, liver, lung, and kidney diseases., (© 2022. The Author(s).)