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Vascular plant and bryophyte species whose geographical range is mainly in the boreal zone have declined markedly in southern Britain since records began. Some of this decline can be attributed to a loss of habitat rather than climate change. In the present study, we estimate the loss attributable to climate change by setting up paired comparisons. In the zone of Britain with July mean temperature greater than 15 °C in the 30-year period 1961-1990, each boreal species was matched with a more southern one having similar frequency, size, and ecological attributes. Because both members of each pair have similar ecological attributes, they should suffer equally from habitat loss and degradation, allowing change attributable to differences in phytogeographical character to be separated out. Hectad (10 km2) records of presence in the period 2000-2013 were compared with those from 1970-1999. Boreal vascular plants decreased by approximately 41%, whereas their matched more southern species decreased by approximately 24%. For 39 of 53 matched pairs, the boreal partner decreased more than its southern comparator, a disparity most unlikely to be a result of chance. Declines for bryophytes averaged 15% for boreal species and 15% for their partners. We conclude that climate change is now having an effect comparable to that of habitat loss on boreal vascular plants in southern Britain but not on boreal bryophytes. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, ●●, ●●-●●. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species distributions are changing, and knowing whether certain character traits predispose species to decline or increase during times of environmental change can shed light on the main drivers of distribution change. Here we conduct a trait-based analysis of range change in the flora of Britain since the 1930s using some of the best plant distribution and trait data available in Europe. We use phylogenetically-informed models based on a recently published, dated, species level plant phylogeny. Traits associated with habitat specialism and competitive ability were related to range change, with more competitive habitat generalists faring better than habitat specialists. We attribute this result to the greater ability of generalists to adapt to environmental perturbation, but also to the negative impacts of agricultural intensification on the flora of Britain, in particular the loss of open, dry habitats. We discovered spatial variation in the main drivers of plant range change and find support for previous evidence that agricultural intensification has been a major driver of distribution change in the flora of Britain over the past 70 years, particularly in southern England. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]